Operation Breakout Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

92.05%

EV $2.21 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.63%

125 openings, odds method

Variance

20.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

10.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

78.66%±139.25119 openings

30 days

77.63%±133.73125 openings

since tracking started

77.63%±133.73125 openings

-0.5%137.0%274.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	59.79%±214.2	—	odds
7d	119	78.66%±139.3	−0.2σ	odds
30d	125	77.63%±133.7	−0.2σ	odds
All	125	77.63%±133.7	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Asiimov (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$270	1.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$249	1.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$235	1.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$213	1.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$210	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$210	1.8%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$206	1.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$203	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$200	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$200	1.4%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,692	$196	1.2%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$196	1.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$196	1.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$195	1.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$189	1.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$187	1.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$185	1.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$180	0.8%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$79.85	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$62.55	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$51.02	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$43.97	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$37.92	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$35.49	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$33.41	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$27.44	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$25.41	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 6,250	$24.05	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$23.50	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,556	$22.84	0.2%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 9,091	$22.15	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$22.06	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$21.89	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$21.76	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 6,250	$21.70	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$21.41	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$21.29	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$21.19	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,882	$21.00	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 7,143	$20.69	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$20.45	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$19.75	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$19.28	0.1%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Fowl Play (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$18.65	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,882	$15.29	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 826	$9.98	0.5%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 160	$9.70	2.7%	0	0.8	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 143	$6.76	2.1%	1	0.9	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 87	$4.53	2.4%	1	1.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$4.49	3.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$4.33	3.5%	5	2.2	2.23×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 73	$4.25	2.6%	3	1.7	1.75×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$4.23	0.0%	1	0.0	—
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 217	$4.16	0.9%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 105	$3.99	1.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 431	$3.72	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$3.67	1.7%	2	1.3	1.58×
Nova \| Koi (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 105	$3.66	1.6%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 174	$3.23	0.8%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 169	$3.01	0.8%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 125	$2.92	1.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 73	$2.89	1.8%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 146	$2.83	0.9%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 493	$2.77	0.3%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 159	$2.70	0.8%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 262	$2.69	0.5%	1	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 175	$2.62	0.7%	0	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 163	$2.62	0.7%	1	0.8	—
Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 286	$2.60	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 331	$2.59	0.4%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$2.59	0.7%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 131	$2.54	0.9%	0	1.0	—
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 161	$2.52	0.7%	0	0.8	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$2.50	0.5%	2	0.5	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 126	$2.50	0.9%	0	1.0	—
Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$2.47	1.2%	3	1.4	2.21×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Koi (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 87	$2.47	1.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Supernova (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 105	$2.47	1.1%	1	1.2	0.84×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 127	$2.43	0.9%	0	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.41	1.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$2.41	1.1%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 63	$2.29	1.6%	1	2.0	0.51×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$2.26	2.5%	2	3.0	0.66×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$1.55	2.2%	2	3.9	0.52×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 26	$1.19	2.1%	5	4.9	1.02×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$1.19	2.2%	6	5.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.14	2.3%	1	5.7	0.18×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$1.07	2.6%	9	6.7	1.35×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$1.01	1.4%	11	3.9	2.85×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 34	$0.81	1.1%	0	3.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 44	$0.72	0.7%	4	2.9	1.40×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$0.72	0.9%	1	3.3	0.30×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 41	$0.71	0.8%	5	3.0	1.65×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Heavy	1 in 36	$0.68	0.8%	3	3.4	0.87×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 74	$0.66	0.4%	5	1.7	2.95×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 94	$0.64	0.3%	2	1.3	1.50×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.59	0.3%	1	1.4	0.74×
P2000 \| Ivory (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 84	$0.54	0.3%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.54	0.3%	2	1.4	1.47×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 102	$0.53	0.2%	2	1.2	1.63×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 79	$0.53	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 95	$0.51	0.2%	1	1.3	0.76×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 80	$0.51	0.3%	3	1.6	1.92×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 95	$0.51	0.2%	2	1.3	1.52×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 178	$0.49	0.1%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 201	$0.47	0.1%	1	0.6	—
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 114	$0.46	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 69	$0.45	0.3%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 145	$0.44	0.1%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 108	$0.43	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
P2000 \| Ivory (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.42	0.1%	2	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Abyss (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 115	$0.42	0.2%	3	1.1	2.77×
P2000 \| Ivory (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 128	$0.41	0.1%	2	1.0	—
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 102	$0.41	0.2%	1	1.2	0.81×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$0.41	0.2%	4	1.4	2.94×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 122	$0.40	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$0.40	0.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 122	$0.40	0.1%	1	1.0	0.98×
P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 96	$0.38	0.2%	1	1.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.38	0.2%	1	1.2	0.85×
MP7 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 97	$0.38	0.2%	1	1.3	0.77×
UMP-45 \| Labyrinth (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 119	$0.38	0.1%	1	1.0	0.95×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 96	$0.37	0.2%	2	1.3	1.53×
Negev \| Desert-Strike (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 89	$0.37	0.2%	1	1.4	0.71×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Ivory (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$0.36	0.2%	0	1.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/breakout, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Abyss (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specBABAYKA$2.40$1.090.45x20m

MP7 | Urban Hazard (Factory New)weapon · mil specKatze im Panzer **********$2.40$1.190.50x2h

StatTrak™ Negev | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecPhylong$2.40$1.010.42x12h

StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Osiris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalPhylong$2.40$2.671.11x12h

Negev | Desert-Strike (Factory New)weapon · RarePhylong$2.40$0.520.22x12h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Ivory (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FFPhylong$2.40$0.660.28x12h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecPhylong$2.40$0.720.30x12h

StatTrak™ Negev | Desert-Strike (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecpoizn$2.40$1.010.42x12h

UMP-45 | Labyrinth (Factory New)weapon · Mil Specpoizn$2.40$0.500.21x12h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	125
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	125
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	125
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	125
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	125
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	125
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.40	92.01%	125
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.40	92.10%	125
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.40	92.06%	125
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	125
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	125
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	125
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	125
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	125
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.40	92.09%	125
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.40	92.10%	125
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.40	92.02%	125
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	125
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	125
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	125
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.40	92.02%	125
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.9%covert 0.3%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 0.3%Legendary 0.0%#d32ee6 0.0%pink 0.0%#4b69ff 2.9%Rare 9.2%Mythical 9.3%restricted 13.5%mil spec 22.2%#8847ff 2.8%Mil Spec Grade 4.8%milspec 25.5%violet 0.6%#8847FF 1.6%Heavy 2.7%#4B69FF 1.4%Mil Spec 1.1%best hit —