Case Battle

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

92.01%

EV $1.84 from 37 items

Observed RTP, 30d

107.31%

4,494 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

103.38%±9.511,011 openings

7 days

106.29%±5.083,590 openings

30 days

107.31%±4.484,494 openings

since tracking started

107.31%±4.484,494 openings

91.5%102.5%113.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (102.83% – 111.78%, 4,494 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,011	103.38%±9.51	+2.3σ	odds
7d	3,590	106.29%±5.08	+5.5σ	odds
30d	4,494	107.31%±4.48	+6.7σ	odds
All	4,494	107.31%±4.48	+6.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values37 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,494 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 8,333	$126	0.8%	5	0.5	—
Operation Bravo Casecontainer · base	1 in 6,667	$67.13	0.5%	1	0.7	—
Operation Hydra Casecontainer · base	1 in 380	$30.53	4.4%	7	11.8	0.59×
CS:GO Weapon Case 2other · Base Grade	1 in 214	$21.99	5.6%	6	21.0	0.29×
Winter Offensive Weapon Casecontainer	1 in 5,882	$11.30	0.1%	17	0.8	—
Glove Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 877	$10.08	0.6%	8	5.1	1.56×
Huntsman Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 137	$9.05	3.6%	32	32.9	0.97×
Operation Breakout Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 267	$8.85	1.8%	47	16.9	2.79×
Operation Riptide Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 279	$7.50	1.5%	32	16.1	1.99×
Operation Broken Fang Casecontainer · base	1 in 140	$5.86	2.3%	46	32.2	1.43×
Chroma Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 64	$5.45	4.7%	51	70.7	0.72×
Operation Vanguard Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 65	$5.06	4.3%	65	69.6	0.93×
Shattered Web Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 73	$4.60	3.4%	84	61.4	1.37×
Chroma 2 Casecontainer · base	1 in 81	$4.16	2.8%	72	55.3	1.30×
Operation Phoenix Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 75	$4.16	3.0%	49	60.0	0.82×
Spectrum Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 94	$3.86	2.2%	77	47.7	1.61×
Chroma 3 Casecontainer	1 in 50	$3.67	4.0%	74	89.7	0.82×
Spectrum 2 Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 48	$3.33	3.8%	90	93.8	0.96×
Gamma 2 Casecontainer · #B0C3D9	1 in 44	$3.29	4.1%	126	101.9	1.24×
Gamma Casecontainer · base	1 in 42	$3.29	4.2%	89	106.7	0.83×
Operation Wildfire Casecontainer · base	1 in 42	$2.97	3.8%	139	107.1	1.30×
Revolver Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 35	$2.89	4.5%	145	129.5	1.12×
Shadow Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 31	$1.77	3.1%	206	145.2	1.42×
Falchion Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 21	$1.66	4.2%	199	209.6	0.95×
Horizon Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 19	$1.63	4.8%	301	241.2	1.25×
Prisma Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 15	$1.14	4.2%	333	307.6	1.08×
Danger Zone Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 22	$1.13	2.7%	238	200.8	1.19×
Prisma 2 Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 23	$1.13	2.7%	266	198.0	1.34×
Dreams & Nightmares Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 21	$0.96	2.5%	251	211.7	1.19×
CS20 Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 18	$0.85	2.6%	254	253.7	1.00×
Gallery Casecontainer · common	1 in 23	$0.68	1.6%	241	191.8	1.26×
Clutch Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 16	$0.50	1.7%	337	282.4	1.19×
Fracture Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 17	$0.43	1.3%	280	258.1	1.08×
Snakebite Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 16	$0.35	1.2%	326	273.4	1.19×
Recoil Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 19	$0.25	0.7%	0	232.3	0.00×
Revolution Casecontainer · Base Grade	1 in 25	$0.18	0.4%	0	178.0	0.00×
Kilowatt Casecontainer · Case	1 in 25	$0.15	0.3%	0	178.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/case-battle, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$12763.69x7d

CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base GradeBonnart$2.00$12763.62x1d

CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base Grade-TRAUMS-$2.00$12763.55x2d

CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base GradePhylong$2.00$12663.14x12h

CS:GO Weapon Casecontainer · Base GradeOogway$2.00$12562.44x6d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Clutch Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$0.490.25x13m

Snakebite Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$0.350.18x13m

Operation Vanguard Weapon Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$5.082.54x13m

Prisma Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$1.140.57x13m

Horizon Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$1.630.82x13m

Gallery Casecontainer · commonAktualn0$2.00$0.670.34x13m

Clutch Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$0.490.25x15m

Fracture Casecontainer · Base GradeAktualn0$2.00$0.420.21x15m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.00	92.01%	37
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.00	92.08%	37
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.00	92.10%	37
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.00	92.08%	37
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.00	92.07%	37
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.00	92.01%	37
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.00	92.02%	37
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	37
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.00	92.03%	37
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.00	92.05%	37

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedBase Grade 80.5%base 7.0%other 2.0%#B0C3D9 2.3%common 4.3%Case 4.0%best hit $127 (63.69x)