Clutch Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

88.40%

EV $4.23 from 93 items

Observed RTP, 30d

84.86%

55 openings, odds method

Variance

1.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

54 openings · below min

30 days

55 openings · below min

since tracking started

55 openings · below min

53.0%85.5%118.0%

Small sample. 55 openings and 8.8 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	54	86.23%±31.4	—	odds
30d	55	84.86%±31.1	—	odds
All	55	84.86%±31.1	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values93 items · odds summed to 0.9863, rescaled · observed counts over 55 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$101	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$81.30	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$70.98	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$60.78	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$51.19	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,263	$44.21	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,176	$42.32	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$40.52	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 971	$37.74	0.9%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 1,020	$37.11	0.9%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,852	$35.54	0.5%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 1,818	$35.54	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,882	$34.91	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,143	$34.28	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 4,167	$32.96	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 299	$30.82	2.5%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 342	$30.58	2.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 276	$28.51	2.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 235	$23.00	2.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 182	$22.42	3.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 127	$19.21	3.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 114	$16.36	3.4%	0	0.5	—
AWP \| Mortis (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 84	$12.86	3.7%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 70	$10.38	3.5%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 58	$9.46	3.9%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 58	$9.31	3.8%	2	1.0	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$9.15	3.8%	3	1.0	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 64	$7.66	2.9%	3	0.9	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 68	$7.37	2.6%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$6.96	3.2%	1	1.1	0.95×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 42	$6.92	3.9%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 53	$6.33	2.9%	1	1.1	0.94×
AWP \| Mortis (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 45	$5.03	2.7%	2	1.2	1.61×
AUG \| Stymphalian (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 42	$4.54	2.6%	3	1.3	2.26×
AWP \| Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$4.03	3.1%	1	1.8	0.56×
AWP \| Mortis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 32	$3.96	3.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Stymphalian (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 45	$3.89	2.1%	0	1.2	0.00×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 52	$3.85	1.8%	0	1.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 86	$3.68	1.0%	0	0.7	—
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 76	$3.67	1.2%	4	0.7	—
AUG \| Stymphalian (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 59	$3.65	1.5%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 62	$3.65	1.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$3.63	1.8%	2	1.2	1.71×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$3.14	1.5%	1	1.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 43	$2.98	1.7%	2	1.3	1.55×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 27	$2.38	2.1%	1	2.1	0.49×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.95	2.1%	1	2.6	0.39×
Nova \| Wild Six (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 23	$1.84	1.9%	2	2.4	0.84×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$1.64	1.9%	3	2.7	1.09×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.63	1.4%	1	2.0	0.50×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.34	0.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$1.27	0.8%	1	1.4	0.72×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 47	$1.22	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$1.12	0.7%	1	1.5	0.68×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 62	$0.99	0.4%	2	0.9	—
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 62	$0.96	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.90	0.4%	2	1.0	1.98×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 63	$0.89	0.3%	0	0.9	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 86	$0.84	0.2%	2	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 80	$0.76	0.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$0.67	0.2%	1	0.7	—
Negev \| Lionfish (Well-Worn)weapon · Heavy	1 in 74	$0.53	0.2%	3	0.8	—
Nova \| Wild Six (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$0.50	0.2%	1	0.8	—
Negev \| Lionfish (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 82	$0.47	0.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 105	$0.46	0.1%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 331	$0.43	0.0%	1	0.2	—
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 277	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 251	$0.37	0.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 186	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 355	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 752	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 420	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 435	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 763	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 971	$0.28	0.0%	0	0.1	—
PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 1,010	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,124	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP9 \| Black Sand (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,087	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,064	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,075	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 1,053	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,087	$0.26	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,754	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Flame Test (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,639	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,695	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.0	—
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 2,000	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 2,222	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Black Sand (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,333	$0.20	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Urban Hazard (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,351	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
XM1014 \| Oxide Blaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,266	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 562	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Black Sand (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 1,136	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Night Riot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 1,961	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.0	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/clutch, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedБАРЯ$4.79$0.940.20x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalБАРЯ$4.79$1.650.34x2d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Flame Test (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecБАРЯ$4.79$1.190.25x2d

AWP | Mortis (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkБАРЯ$4.79$4.040.84x2d

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffБАРЯ$4.79$1.090.23x2d

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffБАРЯ$4.79$9.141.91x2d

USP-S | Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedБАРЯ$4.79$7.411.55x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalБАРЯ$4.79$1.650.34x2d

StatTrak™ AWP | Mortis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedБАРЯ$4.79$10.292.15x2d

AUG | Stymphalian (Factory New)weapon · classified1$4.79$7.741.62x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 88.40%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$4.79	88.40%	93
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	87.85%	93
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	87.46%	93
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	88.05%	93
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	88.35%	93
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	88.42%	93
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	88.21%	93
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	88.25%	93
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	88.50%	93
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	87.63%	93
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	87.87%	93
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	88.47%	93
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	87.42%	93
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	87.67%	93
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	89.13%	93
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	87.99%	93
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	87.42%	93
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	87.95%	93
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	88.71%	93
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	88.51%	93
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	87.88%	93
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	88.14%	93
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	87.48%	93
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	87.31%	93
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	87.36%	93
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	88.25%	93
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	87.96%	93
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	88.68%	93
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	88.20%	93
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	88.43%	93

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.1%covert 1.3%Ancient 0.1%Legendary 6.9%classified 16.4%#eb4b4b 0.1%Covert 0.4%red 0.5%#8847ff 6.0%restricted 23.9%#d32ce6 2.4%#d32ee6 2.4%pink 3.2%Mythical 10.6%Classified 1.3%Restricted 10.5%milspec 5.4%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%Heavy 1.4%violet 0.3%mil spec 0.5%blue 0.3%#4b69ff 0.5%Rare 0.2%Mil Spec 0.1%best hit —