Contract +

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$9.35

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $8.60 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

94.45%

1,731 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

88.57%±13.17187 openings

7 days

94.69%±4.681,463 openings

30 days

94.45%±4.301,731 openings

since tracking started

94.45%±4.301,731 openings

75.0%88.8%102.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	187	88.57%±13.2	−0.5σ	odds
7d	1,463	94.69%±4.68	+1.1σ	odds
30d	1,731	94.45%±4.30	+1.1σ	odds
All	1,731	94.45%±4.30	+1.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,731 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AWP \| Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 368	$53.83	1.7%	9	4.7	1.91×
AWP \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 226	$46.47	2.4%	11	7.7	1.44×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 229	$43.27	2.2%	8	7.6	1.06×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 136	$39.67	3.4%	11	12.7	0.86×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 224	$37.55	2.0%	8	7.7	1.03×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 143	$34.96	2.8%	14	12.1	1.15×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)weapon · Ancient	1 in 99	$32.59	3.8%	17	17.5	0.97×
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$27.13	3.0%	20	16.2	1.23×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 97	$22.44	2.7%	18	17.8	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 67	$21.76	3.8%	15	25.8	0.58×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$19.89	3.2%	17	24.1	0.70×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 70	$18.79	3.1%	34	24.9	1.37×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$18.76	2.8%	17	22.4	0.76×
Safecracker Voltzmann \| The Professionalsagent · pink	1 in 72	$17.75	2.9%	17	24.1	0.71×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$15.28	2.5%	24	24.8	0.97×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 61	$14.88	2.8%	34	28.4	1.20×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 55	$14.40	3.1%	32	31.6	1.01×
Desert Eagle \| Midnight Storm (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 48	$13.00	3.1%	45	36.0	1.25×
Galil AR \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$12.71	2.8%	35	33.2	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 42	$11.72	3.2%	45	41.0	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$11.27	3.4%	37	44.3	0.84×
Glock-18 \| Ramese's Reach (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$10.05	3.5%	54	52.2	1.04×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$9.50	3.7%	53	58.1	0.91×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 29	$8.84	3.5%	70	59.2	1.18×
USP-S \| Stainless (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 24	$8.37	4.1%	70	73.1	0.96×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 22	$6.52	3.4%	70	78.4	0.89×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 19	$4.98	3.1%	93	93.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$4.59	3.1%	104	102.1	1.02×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 14	$4.02	3.3%	145	122.6	1.18×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Connexion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$3.77	2.8%	107	109.1	0.98×
AWP \| Black Nile (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 19	$3.03	1.9%	78	92.0	0.85×
Tec-9 \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$2.81	1.9%	100	98.6	1.01×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$2.38	1.6%	96	101.8	0.94×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 15	$2.32	1.8%	112	115.4	0.97×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 16	$1.95	1.4%	111	110.7	1.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/contract-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Midnight Laminate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetMakarik_y$9.35$2.390.26x16m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalMakarik_y$9.35$2.300.25x16m

XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryMakarik_y$9.35$4.000.43x16m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryMakarik_y$9.35$5.000.53x16m

SG 553 | Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedMakarik_y$9.35$9.531.02x16m

AWP | Queen's Gambit (Well-Worn)weapon · redMakarik_y$9.35$52.995.67x16m

USP-S | Stainless (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec GradeMakarik_y$9.35$8.490.91x16m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryL4he$T$9.35$5.000.53x35m

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryReal-Punisher$9.35$5.000.53x50m

AK-47 | Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedCS.PRO AEZY$9.35$27.032.89x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$9.35	92.01%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$9.35	92.09%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$9.35	92.06%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$9.35	92.08%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$9.35	92.07%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$9.35	92.06%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$9.35	92.04%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$9.35	92.09%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$9.35	92.02%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$9.35	92.10%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$9.35	92.09%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$9.35	92.09%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$9.35	92.07%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$9.35	92.07%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$9.35	92.07%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$9.35	92.07%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$9.35	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedred 3.2%gold 0.4%Ancient 1.5%classified 17.7%uncommon 7.8%pink 9.3%Industrial Grade 2.1%restricted 2.6%violet 8.9%Mil Spec Grade 9.5%Legendary 12.5%Mythical 18.3%#8847ff 6.3%best hit —