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Dark

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$8.99
Advertised RTP
92.02%
EV $8.27 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.74%
1,625 openings, odds method
Variance
1.2×
of price², per opening
Tail share
18.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
70.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
95.97%±11.10383 openings
7 days
96.43%±5.851,360 openings
30 days
94.74%±5.361,625 openings
since tracking started
94.74%±5.361,625 openings
84.0%95.8%107.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h38395.97%±11.1+0.7σodds
7d1,36096.43%±5.85+1.5σodds
30d1,62594.74%±5.36+1.0σodds
All1,62594.74%±5.36+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values59 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,626 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 5,000$1520.4%10.3—
AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 10,000$1400.2%10.2—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$1330.2%10.2—
SG 553 | Hypnotic (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 5,263$95.820.2%00.3—
Glock-18 | Dragon Tattoo (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 1,370$87.790.8%01.20.00×
USP-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 2,273$79.440.4%10.7—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 7,692$75.560.1%00.2—
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 901$67.270.9%01.80.00×
★ Huntsman Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 813$66.821.0%22.01.00×
USP-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 3,125$66.760.3%00.5—
★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 5,882$66.460.1%10.3—
★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 1,639$66.340.5%11.0—
M4A1-S | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 518$66.161.5%03.10.00×
SG 553 | Hypnotic (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 2,439$64.790.3%20.7—
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 1,064$60.350.7%41.52.62×
★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 840$59.450.9%41.92.07×
★ Gut Knife | Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold1 in 397$59.351.8%54.11.22×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 195$40.152.5%148.31.68×
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 158$38.713.0%1010.30.97×
Sir Bloody Skullhead Darryl | The Professionalsagent · red1 in 111$38.454.2%1314.70.89×
P250 | Cartel (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 73$29.214.9%1522.30.67×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 92$21.762.9%2217.81.24×
Desert Eagle | Conspiracy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 69$21.413.7%2023.50.85×
Five-SeveN | Anodized Gunmetal (Minimal Wear)weapon · consumer1 in 54$17.233.9%3430.11.13×
AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 55$15.843.5%2229.60.74×
Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 65$14.012.6%1824.90.72×
Five-SeveN | Anodized Gunmetal (Factory New)weapon · Common1 in 66$13.932.6%2124.70.85×
P250 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 66$13.612.5%2324.60.93×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 83$13.191.9%2519.51.28×
AUG | Wings (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 146$13.101.1%1611.21.43×
FAMAS | Dark Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 137$12.941.1%2811.92.36×
AUG | Wings (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 111$12.311.3%1614.71.09×
Galil AR | Urban Rubble (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 108$12.281.4%2215.01.47×
AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 84$11.561.7%1119.30.57×
P250 | Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 70$11.332.0%1123.30.47×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 75$11.211.8%3321.71.52×
M4A4 | Dark Blossom (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 63$10.312.0%2025.70.78×
AWP | Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified1 in 59$9.942.0%2827.51.02×
FAMAS | Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 51$9.892.3%1931.80.60×
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 37$8.862.9%5244.31.17×
M4A1-S | Basilisk (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 42$8.282.4%3339.10.84×
AK-47 | Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 38$7.392.4%5043.31.15×
FAMAS | Doomkitty (Field-Tested)weapon · blue1 in 28$6.953.0%6857.81.18×
Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Minimal Wear)weapon · Common1 in 31$6.922.7%4452.80.83×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 26$5.212.4%5261.40.85×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cut Out (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 26$4.922.3%5462.50.86×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 23$4.202.2%6770.80.95×
AK-47 | Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 20$4.022.4%6580.10.81×
Sawed-Off | Bamboo Shadow (Battle-Scarred)weapon1 in 30$3.921.6%6054.11.11×
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 28$3.551.5%6657.11.16×
SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 32$2.901.1%5850.31.15×
P2000 | Panther Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 21 in 27$2.601.1%5059.20.84×
SSG 08 | Carbon Fiber (Factory New)weapon · industrial1 in 25$2.551.2%5765.20.87×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 26$2.511.2%5463.00.86×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Etch Lord (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 33$2.270.8%7148.61.46×
StatTrak™ USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 35$2.140.7%5746.01.24×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 29$2.110.9%7156.31.26×
USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted1 in 23$2.051.1%6469.70.92×
P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 23$2.021.1%6971.80.96×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dark, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
P250 | Cartel (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedReal-Punisher$8.99$15.021.67x
P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial GradeSavage$8.99$2.210.25x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeMugli of the jungle book$8.99$2.500.28x
M4A4 | Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violetMugli of the jungle book$8.99$3.560.40x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeMugli of the jungle book$8.99$2.500.28x
P2000 | Panther Camo (Minimal Wear)weapon · 2Mugli of the jungle book$8.99$3.180.35x
P2000 | Panther Camo (Field-Tested)weapon · Industrial GradeMugli of the jungle book$8.99$2.210.25x
AK-47 | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)weapon · mil specMugli of the jungle book$8.99$40.064.46x
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cut Out (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeMugli of the jungle book$8.99$4.910.55x
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Catacombs (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeMugli of the jungle book$8.99$2.500.28x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$8.9992.02%59
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$8.9992.00%59
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$8.9992.02%59
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$8.9992.00%59
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$8.9992.10%59
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$8.9992.00%59
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$8.9992.00%59
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$8.9992.06%59
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$8.9992.00%59
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$8.9992.00%59
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$8.9992.00%59
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$8.9992.00%59
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$8.9992.00%59
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$8.9992.05%59
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$8.9992.00%59
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$8.9992.09%59
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$8.9992.09%59
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$8.9992.00%59
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$8.9992.00%59
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$8.9992.09%59
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$8.9992.10%59
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$8.9992.00%59
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$8.9992.04%59
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$8.9992.00%59
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$8.9992.00%59
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$8.9992.00%59
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$8.9992.00%59
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$8.9992.00%59
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$8.9992.00%59
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$8.9992.06%59
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed2 3.6%classified 8.1%restricted 14.0%#8847ff 3.0%covert knife 0.3%industrial 8.4%gold 0.4%mil spec 5.3%red 0.9%consumer 1.9%Common 4.8%milspec 0.9%Industrial Grade 5.3%Classified 1.7%#4b69ff 2.0%violet 5.9%blue 3.6%Mil Spec Grade 15.0%Rare 4.4%other 3.3%Uncommon 3.1%Restricted 4.3%best hit —