Diver

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$7.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $6.44 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.16%

4,145 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

87.51%±8.86916 openings

7 days

88.00%±4.133,861 openings

30 days

88.16%±3.934,145 openings

since tracking started

88.16%±3.934,145 openings

78.0%87.5%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	916	87.51%±8.86	−1.0σ	odds
7d	3,861	88.00%±4.13	−1.9σ	odds
30d	4,145	88.16%±3.93	−1.9σ	odds
All	4,145	88.16%±3.93	−1.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 4,145 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Paracord Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · epic	1 in 5,263	$156	0.5%	0	0.8	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$134	0.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Polygon (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$106	0.2%	1	0.6	—
M4A4 \| X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,000	$88.34	0.3%	4	0.8	—
MP9 \| Starlight Protector (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 515	$74.53	2.2%	7	8.0	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 163	$59.89	5.7%	9	25.4	0.35×
FAMAS \| Bad Trip (Field-Tested)weapon · uncommon	1 in 105	$50.00	7.4%	14	39.3	0.36×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 84	$38.05	7.0%	33	49.2	0.67×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 100	$28.05	4.4%	37	41.5	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$19.15	4.7%	50	65.9	0.76×
AWP \| Green Energy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 57	$14.28	3.9%	65	72.8	0.89×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$10.94	4.6%	86	113.2	0.76×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 34	$10.06	4.6%	112	121.8	0.92×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$9.33	4.1%	87	116.1	0.75×
AWP \| The End (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$8.84	3.3%	94	98.7	0.95×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 51	$8.67	2.7%	56	81.8	0.68×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$7.83	1.6%	64	53.3	1.20×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 57	$7.83	2.1%	53	72.6	0.73×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$7.76	1.7%	52	57.7	0.90×
FAMAS \| Rapid Eye Movement (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 59	$7.50	2.0%	56	70.1	0.80×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Field-Tested)weapon · rare	1 in 62	$6.73	1.7%	52	66.4	0.78×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$6.28	1.5%	67	65.7	1.02×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$6.15	2.3%	72	101.7	0.71×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$5.48	2.2%	91	105.9	0.86×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$5.11	1.3%	109	68.7	1.59×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$4.97	1.8%	92	98.4	0.94×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 37	$4.93	2.1%	71	111.3	0.64×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 53	$4.73	1.4%	90	78.9	1.14×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 59	$4.62	1.2%	69	70.7	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$4.23	1.2%	75	78.3	0.96×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$3.99	1.4%	88	95.6	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 39	$3.93	1.6%	76	106.4	0.71×
AWP \| Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 30	$3.81	2.0%	72	138.7	0.52×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 32	$3.66	1.7%	89	127.5	0.70×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 33	$3.42	1.6%	80	123.9	0.65×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$3.25	1.9%	91	155.7	0.58×
AK-47 \| Midnight Laminate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 24	$2.89	1.9%	137	172.9	0.79×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$2.36	1.9%	132	212.2	0.62×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$2.03	1.7%	141	228.5	0.62×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 16	$1.80	1.8%	215	265.5	0.81×
M4A4 \| Turbine (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 14	$1.28	1.4%	208	293.1	0.71×
MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 14	$1.01	1.1%	223	288.7	0.77×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/diver, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violetmoNic$7.00$2.360.34x7m

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · ClassifiedIndiferent$7.00$3.660.52x56m

M4A1-S | Night Terror (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff♠♠ Ｍυ❹𝐈４𝐤Ⓐ_Ŝ 💥★$7.00$1.830.26x1h

USP-S | Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · ClassifiedMariskaa$7.00$3.660.52x1h

M4A1-S | Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violetMariskaa$7.00$2.370.34x1h

Glock-18 | Shinobu (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommonVØID$7.00$4.880.70x1h

AWP | Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkVØID$7.00$3.220.46x1h

M4A4 | Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffAFK$7.00$2.020.29x1h

AWP | Mortis (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedAFK$7.00$3.860.55x1h

MP7 | Powercore (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalAFK$7.00$1.010.14x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$7.00	92.02%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$7.00	91.99%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$7.00	92.08%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$7.00	92.08%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$7.00	92.06%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$7.00	92.01%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$7.00	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$7.17	92.06%	57
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$7.17	92.09%	57
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$7.17	92.07%	57
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$7.17	92.10%	57
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$7.17	92.09%	57
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$7.17	92.00%	57

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedepic 0.0%covert 0.6%extraordinary 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%red 1.2%uncommon 3.6%Ancient 1.2%classified 13.4%#d32ce6 3.7%pink 24.1%Legendary 4.4%rare 1.6%restricted 3.5%#d32ee6 1.7%Classified 5.6%Mythical 11.1%violet 12.2%#8847ff 11.9%best hit —