DJ

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $1.84 from 65 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.65%

39.1K openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.76%±4.704,193 openings

7 days

91.29%±1.6833.6K openings

30 days

91.65%±1.5639.1K openings

since tracking started

91.65%±1.5639.1K openings

81.5%87.8%94.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4,193	86.76%±4.70	−2.2σ	odds
7d	33.6K	91.29%±1.68	−0.8σ	odds
30d	39.1K	91.65%±1.56	−0.5σ	odds
All	39.1K	91.65%±1.56	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values65 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 39.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$61.16	0.5%	9	5.9	1.53×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$61.01	0.6%	8	7.5	1.07×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$59.10	0.5%	3	6.7	0.45×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$58.85	0.5%	8	6.3	1.27×
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,556	$53.53	0.5%	2	7.1	0.28×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 6,250	$51.23	0.4%	5	6.3	0.80×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$50.90	0.3%	8	4.3	1.85×
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$50.74	0.6%	8	7.8	1.02×
★ Kukri Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 7,143	$50.45	0.4%	3	5.5	0.55×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$50.17	0.4%	6	5.1	1.18×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$48.45	0.4%	7	5.9	1.19×
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 5,556	$47.52	0.5%	1	7.1	0.14×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$47.03	0.3%	6	5.1	1.18×
★ Kukri Knife \| Boreal Forest (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 5,556	$46.10	0.5%	9	7.1	1.27×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$42.25	0.3%	3	5.1	0.59×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$39.69	0.3%	3	4.7	0.64×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$39.67	0.2%	7	3.9	1.78×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 7,692	$35.32	0.2%	8	5.1	1.57×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 6,250	$34.96	0.3%	3	6.3	0.48×
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,000	$34.10	0.4%	4	7.8	0.51×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 9,091	$30.11	0.2%	4	4.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$26.83	0.3%	6	7.5	0.80×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,263	$26.20	0.3%	9	7.5	1.21×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$26.02	0.3%	9	7.8	1.15×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$25.96	0.2%	3	5.1	0.59×
AWP \| Pink DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$25.11	0.1%	7	3.9	1.78×
Music Kit \| Killer Mike, MICHAELmusic kit · uncommon	1 in 7,143	$24.65	0.2%	4	5.5	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$22.37	0.2%	7	6.3	1.11×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$19.89	0.2%	3	7.1	0.42×
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$19.61	0.1%	7	4.7	1.49×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$19.26	0.1%	6	4.7	1.27×
Desert Eagle \| Kumicho Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$18.76	0.2%	7	6.7	1.05×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$13.87	0.1%	9	6.7	1.35×
P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$13.55	0.1%	7	5.9	1.19×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$13.42	0.1%	11	7.1	1.56×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 352	$12.23	1.9%	43	111.4	0.39×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 877	$9.27	0.6%	54	44.7	1.21×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 161	$8.29	2.8%	102	243.3	0.42×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 260	$7.35	1.5%	230	150.7	1.53×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 172	$6.07	1.9%	333	228.8	1.46×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 141	$6.03	2.3%	331	279.0	1.19×
Dragomir \| Sabreagent · violet	1 in 96	$5.75	3.3%	450	409.3	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 129	$5.48	2.3%	499	303.3	1.65×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 97	$4.61	2.6%	601	403.8	1.49×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 70	$4.55	3.5%	566	559.6	1.01×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 47	$4.36	5.1%	997	841.7	1.18×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 38	$4.10	5.8%	809	1020.3	0.79×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 43	$4.03	5.0%	986	903.7	1.09×
P250 \| Supernova (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$2.70	4.9%	1,250	1315.4	0.95×
P250 \| Supernova (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 27	$2.54	5.1%	1,437	1443.7	1.00×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$2.16	5.4%	1,735	1818.5	0.95×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 18	$1.46	4.5%	1,999	2228.6	0.90×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.44	4.1%	2,001	2042.2	0.98×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 18	$1.27	3.9%	2,228	2199.5	1.01×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$1.22	4.0%	2,276	2338.0	0.97×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$1.18	2.5%	1,532	1523.4	1.01×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Plastique (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 23	$1.01	2.4%	1,726	1705.1	1.01×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$0.93	2.2%	1,211	1686.6	0.72×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.87	2.2%	2,000	1796.5	1.11×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.76	2.2%	1,864	2064.1	0.90×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$0.58	1.6%	2,050	2032.7	1.01×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 18	$0.46	1.4%	3,070	2217.2	1.38×
AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$0.45	1.5%	2,876	2470.3	1.16×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 15	$0.44	1.5%	1,816	2538.2	0.72×
FAMAS \| Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$0.42	1.2%	1,960	2111.2	0.93×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/dj, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec2berCOOLez$2.00$0.420.21x36s

StatTrak™ FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec❦حب المال♂$2.00$0.930.47x1m

AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare❦حب المال♂$2.00$0.450.23x1m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet❦حب المال♂$2.00$1.450.73x1m

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec❦حب المال♂$2.00$0.440.22x1m

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Melondrama (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6❦حب المال♂$2.00$6.073.04x1m

AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareReal-Punisher$2.00$0.450.23x3m

Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendarydžuzeppe$2.00$4.032.02x15m

SG 553 | Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkdžuzeppe$2.00$4.572.29x15m

FAMAS | Survivor Z (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specNonesy$2.00$0.420.21x20m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.00	92.05%	65
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.00	92.09%	65
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.00	92.04%	65
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.00	92.03%	65
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.00	92.09%	65
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.00	92.08%	65
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.00	92.09%	65
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.00	92.01%	65
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.00	92.06%	65
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.00	92.00%	65

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%covert knife 0.0%red 0.0%#ffd700 0.0%gold 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.1%restricted 8.0%uncommon 0.0%classified 1.1%#d32ce6 0.1%pink 6.2%#d32ee6 1.0%violet 6.2%mil spec 23.0%Legendary 2.6%Mythical 3.7%Restricted 10.0%#8847ff 15.4%milspec 15.9%Rare 6.3%best hit —