Event Case

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.29

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $1.19 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

100.63%

1,664 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

107.63%±12.98216 openings

7 days

102.28%±5.021,431 openings

30 days

100.63%±4.661,664 openings

since tracking started

100.63%±4.661,664 openings

91.5%106.5%121.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.02% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (95.98% – 105.29%, 1,664 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	216	107.63%±13.0	+2.4σ	odds
7d	1,431	102.28%±5.02	+4.0σ	odds
30d	1,664	100.63%±4.66	+3.6σ	odds
All	1,664	100.63%±4.66	+3.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,664 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 189	$6.52	2.9%	9	8.8	1.02×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 221	$6.29	2.4%	9	7.5	1.20×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 178	$5.79	2.7%	7	9.4	0.75×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpenedmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 178	$5.58	2.6%	9	9.4	0.96×
Charm \| Lil' Herocharm · #d32ce6	1 in 173	$4.92	2.4%	13	9.6	1.35×
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$4.80	2.8%	12	11.5	1.04×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 114	$4.63	3.4%	12	14.6	0.82×
USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 118	$4.08	2.9%	24	14.1	1.70×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 99	$3.72	3.2%	15	16.7	0.90×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$3.65	3.7%	26	20.3	1.28×
Glock-18 \| Mirror Mosaic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 69	$3.58	4.4%	26	24.2	1.07×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$3.28	4.4%	25	26.2	0.95×
AUG \| Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 61	$3.18	4.4%	54	27.4	1.97×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$2.49	4.7%	31	37.3	0.83×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 35	$2.05	4.9%	58	47.2	1.23×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 31	$1.90	5.1%	74	53.3	1.39×
Galil AR \| Firefight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$1.32	4.7%	66	70.8	0.93×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$1.28	4.7%	64	72.0	0.89×
USP-S \| Alpine Camo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$1.21	4.3%	79	69.9	1.13×
MP7 \| Amberline (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.98	4.1%	94	83.2	1.13×
USP-S \| Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 30	$0.80	2.3%	60	55.8	1.08×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 25	$0.72	2.4%	91	66.2	1.37×
M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$0.70	2.6%	84	74.0	1.14×
Nova \| Wild Six (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.68	2.0%	77	57.9	1.33×
P2000 \| Amber Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 29	$0.68	2.0%	52	58.1	0.89×
Charm \| That's Bananascharm · uncommon	1 in 39	$0.66	1.4%	61	42.2	1.44×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$0.62	1.2%	54	36.8	1.47×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 41	$0.61	1.2%	47	40.4	1.16×
MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 29	$0.58	1.7%	62	57.9	1.07×
MP9 \| Bioleak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 24	$0.44	1.5%	69	69.0	1.00×
P90 \| Verdant Growth (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 21	$0.36	1.4%	75	77.8	0.96×
Dual Berettas \| Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$0.32	1.6%	90	96.3	0.93×
Tec-9 \| Red Quartz (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 15	$0.31	1.7%	119	111.0	1.07×
P2000 \| Royal Baroque (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 17	$0.25	1.2%	16	95.6	0.17×
Desert Eagle \| Mint Fan (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 18	$0.21	1.0%	0	91.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/event-case-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P90 | Verdant Growth (Well-Worn)weapon · industrialNOT ASL$1.29$0.350.27x41m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecNOT ASL$1.29$1.901.47x41m

Dual Berettas | Cobalt Quartz (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedNOT ASL$1.29$0.350.27x41m

MP9 | Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classifiedNOT ASL$1.29$3.662.84x41m

Desert Eagle | Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkNOT ASL$1.29$1.250.97x41m

USP-S | Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · blueNOT ASL$1.29$0.790.61x41m

MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Factory New)weapon · UncommonNOT ASL$1.29$0.570.44x41m

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecNOT ASL$1.29$1.901.47x41m

Desert Eagle | The Daily Deagle (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ffNOT ASL$1.29$0.720.56x41m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · RestrictedNOT ASL$1.29$2.061.60x41m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.29	92.06%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.29	92.03%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.29	92.01%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.29	92.02%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.29	91.95%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.29	92.03%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.29	92.09%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.29	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.29	92.06%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.29	92.08%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 7.9%#d32ee6 0.5%uncommon 3.1%High Grade 0.6%#d32ce6 0.6%classified 5.3%restricted 14.0%industrial 6.3%Restricted 2.8%Mil Spec 3.2%violet 11.5%blue 18.8%#4b69ff 4.0%Mythical 4.4%#8847ff 7.0%Rare 6.6%Uncommon 3.5%best hit —