Final Scream

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$6.00

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $5.52 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.49%

14.5K openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.04%±6.191,897 openings

7 days

92.74%±2.3712.3K openings

30 days

92.49%±2.1914.5K openings

since tracking started

92.49%±2.1914.5K openings

86.0%93.0%100.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,897	93.04%±6.19	+0.3σ	odds
7d	12.3K	92.74%±2.37	+0.6σ	odds
30d	14.5K	92.49%±2.19	+0.4σ	odds
All	14.5K	92.49%±2.19	+0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14.6K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Flip Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,263	$144	0.5%	3	2.8	1.08×
★ Survival Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 7,143	$138	0.4%	2	2.0	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · gold	1 in 5,263	$102	0.3%	10	2.8	3.61×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Gold Toof (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · rare	1 in 222	$77.61	6.3%	26	65.7	0.40×
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 649	$66.27	1.8%	45	22.4	2.01×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 415	$48.97	2.1%	83	35.1	2.36×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 160	$34.45	3.9%	138	90.9	1.52×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 72	$26.04	6.6%	151	203.1	0.74×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$14.40	5.1%	276	285.1	0.97×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 41	$11.65	5.1%	338	351.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 33	$9.23	5.1%	407	447.6	0.91×
MP7 \| Nemesis (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 31	$8.92	5.2%	409	472.3	0.87×
P250 \| Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 46	$8.09	3.2%	401	314.6	1.27×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 45	$7.83	3.2%	298	326.6	0.91×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 54	$7.83	2.6%	224	269.5	0.83×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 65	$7.76	2.2%	309	224.8	1.37×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$7.45	2.3%	211	247.6	0.85×
MP7 \| Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 61	$6.52	2.0%	266	240.6	1.11×
AK-47 \| Nouveau Rouge (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$6.28	2.5%	261	323.0	0.81×
Galil AR \| Stone Cold (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$5.93	2.9%	371	394.2	0.94×
MP9 \| Arctic Tri-Tone (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$5.36	2.8%	424	423.5	1.00×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$5.21	2.8%	414	437.3	0.95×
M4A1-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 31	$4.27	2.5%	460	476.9	0.96×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 26	$4.24	3.0%	478	561.4	0.85×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$4.11	2.7%	588	521.5	1.13×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$4.11	2.6%	529	509.4	1.04×
AWP \| Black Box (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$3.28	2.3%	515	563.5	0.91×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$3.21	2.0%	570	494.1	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 25	$2.89	2.1%	670	588.4	1.14×
AWP \| Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 17	$2.84	3.1%	750	864.4	0.87×
AK-47 \| Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 21	$2.40	2.1%	758	697.9	1.09×
M4A1-S \| Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 16	$2.25	2.5%	833	883.6	0.94×
AK-47 \| Steel Delta (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 17	$2.03	2.2%	924	880.6	1.05×
M4A4 \| Magnesium (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$1.44	2.1%	1,159	1167.4	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 12	$1.29	1.9%	1,266	1174.7	1.08×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/final-scream-helloween, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Breakthrough (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffSayfilich$6.00$2.390.40xnow

MP7 | Abyssal Apparition (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkSayfilich$6.00$6.481.08x11s

M4A1-S | Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertSayfilich$6.00$65.3210.89x21s

AWP | Worm God (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffSayfilich$6.00$2.860.48x30s

Glock-18 | Catacombs (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSayfilich$6.00$1.300.22x39s

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffReal-Punisher$6.00$2.240.37x1m

M4A1-S | Fizzy POP (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ffmoNic$6.00$2.240.37x3m

P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6moNic$6.00$8.081.35x3m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$6.00$4.170.70x3m

P250 | Visions (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6CS.PRO AEZY$6.00$8.081.35x3m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$6.00	91.99%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$6.00	92.06%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$6.00	92.09%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$6.00	92.08%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$6.00	92.07%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$6.00	92.06%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$6.00	92.03%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$6.00	92.01%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$6.00	92.02%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$6.00	92.08%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.00	92.06%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$6.00	92.04%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$6.00	92.08%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$6.00	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.4%gold 0.0%rare 0.5%Ancient 0.6%red 1.4%classified 10.7%pink 11.2%#d32ee6 2.2%restricted 19.6%#8847ff 14.0%violet 7.2%Mythical 4.0%#4b69ff 6.1%Rare 6.0%mil spec 16.1%best hit —