Furious

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.45

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $0.41 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

151.36%

3,854 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

154.36%±10.08332 openings

7 days

149.45%±3.053,447 openings

30 days

151.36%±2.893,854 openings

since tracking started

151.36%±2.893,854 openings

91.5%128.3%165.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.04% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (148.47% – 154.26%, 3,854 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	332	154.36%±10.1	+12.1σ	odds
7d	3,447	149.45%±3.05	+36.9σ	odds
30d	3,854	151.36%±2.89	+40.2σ	odds
All	3,854	151.36%±2.89	+40.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,854 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$6.20	0.2%	3	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Calligraffiti (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 10,000	$5.45	0.1%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,091	$4.59	0.1%	3	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Night Terror (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,692	$4.51	0.1%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 5,263	$3.60	0.2%	1	0.7	—
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 7,143	$3.47	0.1%	3	0.5	—
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$3.41	0.2%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Stinger (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 9,091	$2.84	0.1%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Pipsqueak (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,882	$2.78	0.1%	6	0.7	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tigris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 350	$2.50	1.7%	16	11.0	1.45×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 962	$2.21	0.6%	35	4.0	8.73×
Charm \| Diner Dogcharm · #d32ce6	1 in 73	$1.56	5.2%	94	53.0	1.77×
AUG \| Triqua (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$1.49	8.0%	136	85.2	1.60×
MAC-10 \| Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 51	$1.48	7.0%	151	75.9	1.99×
Sticker \| Flexsticker · blue	1 in 38	$1.10	6.9%	201	100.8	1.99×
SSG 08 \| Zeno (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 30	$0.96	7.7%	253	127.3	1.99×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Modest Threat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 27	$0.96	8.6%	264	143.8	1.84×
P90 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.60	6.1%	374	161.4	2.32×
P90 \| Freight (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 18	$0.57	7.8%	403	217.6	1.85×
Nova \| Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$0.46	5.8%	525	202.8	2.59×
Galil AR \| Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 12	$0.33	6.5%	608	312.0	1.95×
USP-S \| Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 15	$0.29	4.7%	456	258.1	1.77×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 11	$0.27	6.0%	320	351.6	0.91×
UMP-45 \| Warm Blooded (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.19	4.1%	0	347.9	0.00×
Negev \| Sour Grapes (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.16	2.9%	0	293.5	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Picnic (Well-Worn)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 11	$0.14	3.2%	0	366.1	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial	1 in 11	$0.14	3.0%	0	342.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Naval Shred Camo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · light blue	10.2%	$0.12	3.0%	0	394.6	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/furious-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Galil AR | Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9zzxc$0.45$0.330.73x9m

Galil AR | Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9mekthereal$0.45$0.330.73x18m

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffmekthereal$0.45$0.290.64x22m

Nova | Rising Sun (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetmekthereal$0.45$0.451.00x24m

M4A4 | Naval Shred Camo (Factory New)weapon · Uncommonmekthereal$0.45$0.300.67x24m

USP-S | Tropical Breeze (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffmekthereal$0.45$0.290.64x25m

MAC-10 | Cat Fight (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetKubsa2006$0.45$1.463.24x46m

Galil AR | Acid Dart (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9floreszz$0.45$0.330.73x52m

StatTrak™ MP9 | Modest Threat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradefloreszz$0.45$0.972.16x53m

P90 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69fffloreszz$0.45$0.601.33x53m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.45	92.04%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.45	92.02%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.45	92.09%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.45	92.04%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.45	92.02%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.45	92.06%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.45	92.09%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.45	92.09%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.45	92.01%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.45	92.07%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.45	92.08%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.45	92.08%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.45	92.03%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.45	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.45	92.04%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.45	92.06%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.45	92.09%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.45	92.10%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedrestricted 0.3%blue 11.7%Mythical 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 3.7%#8847ff 0.0%pink 0.0%Rare 5.7%mil spec 0.1%#d32ce6 1.4%milspec 5.5%violet 7.2%#4b69ff 10.9%#5e98d9 17.6%Uncommon 9.1%industrial 16.5%light blue 10.2%best hit —