Gamma Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$3.61

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $3.32 from 112 items

Observed RTP, 30d

78.14%

103 openings, odds method

Variance

2.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

91 openings · below min

30 days

78.14%±31.41103 openings

since tracking started

78.14%±31.41103 openings

-0.5%149.5%299.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	73.55%±225.3	—	odds
7d	91	79.63%±33.0	—	odds
30d	103	78.14%±31.4	−0.9σ	odds
All	103	78.14%±31.4	−0.9σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values112 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 103 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$129	0.5%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$119	0.7%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$119	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$116	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 1,852	$114	1.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$111	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,429	$51.87	1.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 676	$31.74	1.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,667	$29.01	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 571	$28.06	1.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 637	$27.04	1.3%	0	0.2	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 690	$23.98	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 535	$23.73	1.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,163	$21.35	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 4,000	$17.65	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 763	$16.36	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 518	$14.80	0.9%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 481	$14.60	0.9%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 236	$14.40	1.8%	0	0.4	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 990	$14.17	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 446	$13.64	0.9%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 704	$13.36	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,041	$13.23	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 581	$13.13	0.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,083	$12.95	0.2%	0	0.0	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,923	$12.92	0.2%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 483	$12.79	0.8%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 476	$12.71	0.8%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 741	$12.49	0.5%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 351	$12.48	1.1%	0	0.3	—
P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 292	$12.22	1.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 312	$12.18	1.2%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 347	$11.90	1.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial Dragon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 159	$10.14	1.9%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 154	$9.74	1.9%	1	0.7	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 106	$9.35	2.6%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$8.14	2.8%	1	1.2	0.85×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$7.76	2.7%	2	1.2	1.69×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$7.32	2.6%	1	1.2	0.81×
AWP \| Phobos (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 72	$6.69	2.8%	0	1.4	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$6.05	2.5%	3	1.4	2.14×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 72	$5.70	2.4%	2	1.4	1.40×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$5.65	2.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$5.37	2.3%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 86	$5.33	1.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 86	$4.54	1.6%	3	1.2	2.50×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 75	$4.40	1.8%	1	1.4	0.73×
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 66	$4.32	2.0%	1	1.6	0.64×
AWP \| Phobos (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 54	$4.28	2.4%	2	1.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 81	$4.16	1.6%	4	1.3	3.13×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$4.09	1.7%	6	1.4	4.32×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 57	$3.22	1.7%	1	1.8	0.55×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 46	$2.88	1.9%	4	2.2	1.79×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$2.68	2.0%	0	2.6	0.00×
AWP \| Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 33	$2.52	2.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 33	$2.52	2.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$2.45	1.3%	1	1.9	0.53×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 68	$2.40	1.1%	2	1.5	1.32×
AWP \| Phobos (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$2.36	0.9%	1	1.3	0.74×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$2.34	0.9%	3	1.2	2.41×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$2.15	0.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$2.06	0.8%	2	1.3	1.52×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$1.99	1.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 56	$1.85	1.0%	0	1.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$1.83	0.8%	3	1.5	1.97×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 70	$1.82	0.8%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$1.77	0.8%	1	1.5	0.68×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$1.75	0.6%	1	1.1	0.93×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 106	$1.75	0.5%	2	1.0	—
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 84	$1.60	0.6%	0	1.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Reboot (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$1.44	0.6%	0	1.5	0.00×
P90 \| Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 87	$1.41	0.5%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 68	$1.41	0.6%	1	1.5	0.66×
Sawed-Off \| Limelight (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.40	0.8%	1	1.9	0.53×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 55	$1.37	0.7%	1	1.9	0.54×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.33	0.5%	1	1.3	0.80×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 67	$1.29	0.6%	7	1.5	4.59×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$1.25	0.7%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$1.04	0.7%	1	2.3	0.44×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Exo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 41	$0.92	0.7%	1	2.5	0.40×
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$0.68	0.6%	5	3.1	1.63×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 28	$0.64	0.7%	1	3.7	0.27×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$0.63	0.5%	0	2.6	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 49	$0.62	0.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 157	$0.60	0.1%	2	0.7	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 413	$0.59	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 291	$0.59	0.1%	3	0.4	—
Nova \| Exo (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 291	$0.57	0.1%	1	0.4	—
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 280	$0.55	0.1%	0	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 345	$0.54	0.0%	1	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 521	$0.54	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Nova \| Exo (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 222	$0.53	0.1%	0	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Aerial (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 290	$0.53	0.1%	3	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Aerial (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 293	$0.53	0.1%	0	0.4	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 166	$0.51	0.1%	1	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Ice Cap (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 250	$0.51	0.1%	1	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 272	$0.49	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 341	$0.47	0.0%	1	0.3	—
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 200	$0.46	0.1%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)weapon · 1	1 in 225	$0.45	0.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Exo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 225	$0.45	0.1%	0	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Violent Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 162	$0.44	0.1%	0	0.6	—
P250 \| Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 266	$0.43	0.0%	1	0.4	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 166	$0.41	0.1%	1	0.6	—
MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 165	$0.41	0.1%	0	0.6	—
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 199	$0.37	0.1%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Exo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 155	$0.36	0.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Aerial (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 155	$0.36	0.1%	1	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Harvester (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 182	$0.36	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Carnivore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 128	$0.35	0.1%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 146	$0.34	0.1%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Iron Clad (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 162	$0.33	0.1%	1	0.6	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/gamma, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Nova | Exo (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspecпарень АРБУЗНОГО$3.61$0.610.17x15h

AUG | Aristocrat (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffSkSfps1$3.61$4.701.30x19h

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specstorm1k$3.61$0.680.19x1d

P250 | Iron Clad (Well-Worn)weapon · milspecnCaw | ..Mede$3.61$0.540.15x1d

Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Factory New)weapon · bluenCaw | ..Mede$3.61$2.310.64x1d

AWP | Phobos (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ffШуврентий Палыч$3.61$2.610.72x2d

AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted+WiiiiiLerij *_*$3.61$1.370.38x3d

StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedyho$3.61$1.850.51x3d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Violent Daimyo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecyho$3.61$1.150.32x3d

StatTrak™ AUG | Aristocrat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedfatsalıDONK$3.61$1.840.51x3d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	112
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	112
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.61	92.06%	112
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	112
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	112
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$3.61	91.99%	112
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	112
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	112
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$3.61	92.07%	112
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.61	92.03%	112
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	112
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$3.61	92.08%	112
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$3.61	92.05%	112
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.61	92.10%	112
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.61	92.01%	112
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.61	92.00%	112

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.0%covert 0.1%red 0.0%Covert 0.1%classified 4.7%Classified 0.2%Restricted 9.0%restricted 28.9%Mil Spec Grade 3.4%Mythical 1.4%#8847ff 10.4%milspec 20.9%mil spec 12.6%#4b69ff 2.9%blue 2.7%Rare 1.8%best hit —