Gamma 2 Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$3.61
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $3.32 from 124 items
Observed RTP, 30d
94.18%
40 openings, odds method
Variance
4.0×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.6%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
78.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
3 openings · below min
7 days
31 openings · below min
30 days
40 openings · below min
since tracking started
40 openings · below min
-0.5%137.5%275.5%

Small sample. 40 openings and 5.5 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h334.90%±239.7—odds
7d3178.80%±73.6—odds
30d4094.18%±64.6—odds
All4094.18%±64.6—odds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values124 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 40 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$2180.9%00.0—
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1620.5%00.0—
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1300.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1300.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1280.4%00.0—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 6,250$1270.6%00.0—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1270.7%00.0—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 7,692$1220.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1220.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Well-Worn)weapon · red1 in 8,333$1190.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1190.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 7,692$1170.5%00.0—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 8,333$1170.4%00.0—
FAMAS | Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 5,000$1140.7%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1140.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ FAMAS | Roll Cage (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1120.4%00.0—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,882$1100.6%00.0—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1080.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 6,250$65.660.3%00.0—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$62.080.2%00.0—
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 6,667$41.730.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 6,667$38.800.2%00.0—
Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 5,000$35.150.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 5,882$28.610.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 8,333$27.630.1%00.0—
AUG | Syd Mead (Factory New)weapon · pink1 in 5,000$25.370.2%00.0—
MP9 | Airlock (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 7,692$23.630.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 1,235$16.150.4%00.0—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 488$14.880.9%00.1—
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 270$14.591.6%00.1—
MP9 | Airlock (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 216$13.561.9%00.2—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 5,000$13.360.1%00.0—
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 847$13.330.5%00.0—
AUG | Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 7,692$13.050.1%10.0—
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 1,087$12.940.4%00.0—
MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 313$12.831.2%00.1—
MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 498$12.490.8%00.1—
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 2,083$12.150.2%00.0—
MP9 | Airlock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 5,000$12.150.1%00.0—
Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 1,923$11.970.2%00.0—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 234$11.841.5%10.2—
StatTrak™ MP9 | Airlock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 219$11.751.6%10.2—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 287$11.321.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 131$11.242.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 80$10.544.0%00.5—
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 87$10.493.6%00.5—
StatTrak™ AUG | Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 64$10.264.9%00.6—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 54$9.045.1%30.7—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 55$8.794.8%20.7—
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 39$7.636.0%11.00.97×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 28$4.064.3%01.40.00×
SG 553 | Triarch (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 27$3.684.2%11.50.66×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 20$3.455.2%02.00.00×
SCAR-20 | Powercore (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 19$3.255.2%32.11.41×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 33$3.072.8%21.21.64×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 32$2.292.2%21.31.60×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Triarch (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 36$2.201.9%01.10.00×
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 29$2.162.2%31.42.17×
CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 26$2.002.3%11.50.66×
UMP-45 | Briefing (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 54$1.791.0%10.7—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 58$1.720.9%10.7—
SCAR-20 | Powercore (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 43$1.671.2%00.9—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.580.9%00.8—
SG 553 | Triarch (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 75$1.510.6%10.5—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 78$1.450.6%30.5—
MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 76$1.400.6%10.5—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 111$1.390.4%00.4—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff1 in 121$1.370.3%00.3—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 151$1.360.3%00.3—
MAG-7 | Petroglyph (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 191$1.340.2%10.2—
SG 553 | Triarch (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 192$1.320.2%00.2—
SCAR-20 | Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff1 in 86$1.300.5%00.5—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 131$1.300.3%00.3—
Glock-18 | Weasel (Well-Worn)weapon · violet1 in 116$1.290.3%10.3—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 89$1.270.4%00.4—
Desert Eagle | Directive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 111$1.240.3%10.4—
Glock-18 | Weasel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet1 in 73$1.220.5%10.5—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 | Powercore (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 64$1.220.6%00.6—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 50$0.890.5%00.8—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 48$0.880.6%10.8—
XM1014 | Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 47$0.820.5%00.8—
G3SG1 | Ventilator (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 35$0.760.7%01.20.00×
UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 78$0.630.2%10.5—
G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 78$0.630.2%00.5—
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 68$0.540.2%00.6—
XM1014 | Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · 11 in 78$0.540.2%10.5—
Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 68$0.520.2%00.6—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 88$0.490.2%00.5—
CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 122$0.450.1%00.3—
UMP-45 | Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 216$0.430.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Ventilator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 238$0.430.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1 in 389$0.430.0%00.1—
XM1014 | Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · 11 in 219$0.430.1%00.2—
G3SG1 | Ventilator (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 317$0.420.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ Negev | Dazzle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 193$0.420.1%00.2—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 224$0.410.1%00.2—
Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 400$0.410.0%10.1—
P90 | Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 403$0.410.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Slipstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 395$0.400.0%20.1—
CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 405$0.380.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 833$0.380.0%00.0—
XM1014 | Slipstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 662$0.380.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 403$0.380.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 645$0.370.0%00.1—
Negev | Dazzle (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 654$0.370.0%00.1—
XM1014 | Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 654$0.370.0%00.1—
G3SG1 | Ventilator (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec1 in 373$0.360.0%00.1—
P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 247$0.360.0%00.2—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 217$0.340.0%00.2—
UMP-45 | Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec1 in 625$0.330.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Ventilator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 270$0.330.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ P90 | Grim (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 294$0.320.0%00.1—
UMP-45 | Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec1 in 441$0.310.0%10.1—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 306$0.310.0%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 463$0.310.0%00.1—
CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 313$0.310.0%00.1—
P90 | Grim (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 258$0.290.0%00.2—
Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff1 in 244$0.280.0%00.2—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 495$0.280.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Imprint (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 325$0.280.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Scumbria (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 332$0.260.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Ventilator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 575$0.260.0%00.1—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 198$0.240.0%00.2—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Briefing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 243$0.230.0%00.2—
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/gamma2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$3.6192.00%124
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$3.6192.10%124
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$3.6192.00%124
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$3.6192.07%124
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$3.6192.00%124
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$3.6192.00%124
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$3.6192.08%124
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$3.6192.00%124
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$3.6192.00%124
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$3.6192.09%124
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$3.6192.00%124
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$3.6192.00%124
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$3.6192.00%124
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$3.6192.00%124
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$3.6192.03%124
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$3.6192.00%124
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$3.6192.07%124
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$3.6192.00%124
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$3.6192.06%124
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$3.6192.08%124
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$3.6192.06%124
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$3.6192.00%124
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$3.6192.00%124
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$3.6192.00%124
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$3.6192.00%124
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$3.6192.03%124
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$3.6192.00%124
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$3.6192.08%124
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$3.6192.00%124
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$3.6192.00%124
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.7%covert 0.2%red 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%restricted 25.0%Legendary 0.0%classified 5.8%Classified 1.3%violet 5.2%pink 0.0%#d32ee6 0.8%Mythical 7.8%Restricted 2.6%milspec 21.0%Mil Spec Grade 5.7%#4b69ff 9.3%Rare 7.3%#8847ff 3.6%mil spec 2.3%best hit —