Golden Knife
A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.
Price
$299.00
Advertised RTP
91.94%
EV $274.89 from 46 items
Observed RTP, 30d
93.78%
120 openings, odds method
Variance
0.5×
of price², per opening
Tail share
24.5%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
66.1%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values46 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 121 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
ggdrop:api/case/golden-knife, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.94%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC | $299 | 91.94% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $299 | 91.96% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $299 | 91.95% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $299 | 91.92% | 46 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $299 | 91.99% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $299 | 91.95% | 46 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $299 | 91.92% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $299 | 91.94% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $299 | 91.91% | 46 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $299 | 91.93% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $299 | 91.96% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $299 | 92.00% | 46 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $299 | 91.90% | 46 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedcovert 40.7%gold 13.3%covert knife 27.0%#ffd700 9.1%Covert 2.4%other 2.4%rare 2.2%sunny 2.5%Immortal 0.4%best hit $706 (2.36x)