Horizon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$6.01

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $5.53 from 92 items

Observed RTP, 30d

115.27%

87 openings, odds method

Variance

2.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

14 openings · below min

7 days

85 openings · below min

30 days

87 openings · below min

since tracking started

87 openings · below min

74.5%147.5%220.5%

Small sample. 87 openings and 13.0 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	14	147.46%±72.2	—	odds
7d	85	116.00%±30.1	—	odds
30d	87	115.27%±29.7	—	odds
All	87	115.27%±29.7	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values92 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 87 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,333	$218	1.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$187	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$139	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 3,448	$109	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$92.48	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,562	$83.25	1.0%	1	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 5,000	$76.59	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$75.73	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$73.46	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$68.29	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 1,075	$59.89	1.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 10,000	$56.88	0.1%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 3,125	$56.38	0.3%	1	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$48.69	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 352	$47.52	2.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 909	$46.80	0.9%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 862	$45.93	1.0%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,020	$41.61	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 348	$35.54	1.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 336	$27.57	1.5%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 147	$25.01	3.1%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 156	$24.77	2.9%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$23.21	3.5%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 104	$16.72	2.9%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 105	$16.66	2.9%	2	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 90	$14.15	2.8%	0	1.0	—
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$14.07	3.6%	3	1.2	2.43×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$12.16	2.3%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$11.19	2.4%	2	1.0	1.91×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$11.05	2.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 74	$10.17	2.5%	0	1.2	0.00×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$10.06	2.0%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 109	$9.64	1.6%	3	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$9.18	1.9%	3	1.0	2.99×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$9.06	1.6%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 91	$8.81	1.8%	1	1.0	—
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 91	$7.66	1.5%	0	1.0	—
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 75	$7.25	1.7%	2	1.2	1.73×
AWP \| PAW (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$7.15	2.2%	1	1.5	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 63	$7.12	2.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 76	$6.09	1.5%	2	1.1	1.74×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 80	$5.99	1.4%	1	1.1	0.91×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$5.83	1.6%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$5.80	1.8%	0	1.5	0.00×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$5.76	1.0%	3	0.8	—
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 89	$5.65	1.2%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 95	$5.55	1.1%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 84	$5.50	1.2%	2	1.0	1.94×
Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$5.42	1.7%	1	1.5	0.66×
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$5.37	1.7%	3	1.5	1.95×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 46	$5.02	2.0%	5	1.9	2.65×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 39	$4.51	2.1%	4	2.2	1.79×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 30	$4.12	2.5%	2	2.9	0.69×
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$3.70	2.7%	1	3.6	0.28×
AWP \| PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$3.39	2.6%	6	3.7	1.61×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Powercore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 21	$2.12	1.8%	2	4.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$2.05	1.8%	0	4.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$1.84	1.7%	1	4.4	0.23×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$1.77	1.7%	3	4.6	0.65×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$1.74	0.6%	4	1.6	2.57×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$1.51	0.5%	4	1.6	2.45×
MP7 \| Powercore (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$1.42	0.4%	1	1.3	0.76×
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$1.36	0.4%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$1.34	0.4%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 92	$1.20	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 96	$1.13	0.2%	1	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 89	$1.04	0.2%	2	1.0	—
MP7 \| Powercore (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$1.03	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Snek-9 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 85	$1.03	0.2%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 119	$1.01	0.2%	1	0.7	—
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$0.93	0.2%	2	0.9	—
G3SG1 \| High Seas (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 235	$0.88	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 134	$0.86	0.1%	0	0.6	—
CZ75-Auto \| Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 136	$0.84	0.1%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 132	$0.81	0.1%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 143	$0.69	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 154	$0.68	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$0.54	0.1%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 125	$0.53	0.1%	1	0.7	—
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 218	$0.52	0.0%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Warhawk (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 153	$0.52	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 197	$0.51	0.0%	1	0.4	—
AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 356	$0.49	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Shred (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 543	$0.45	0.0%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 291	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Shred (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 369	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Capillary (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 368	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Shred (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 375	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 268	$0.40	0.0%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Traction (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 369	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MP9 \| Capillary (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 418	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Amber Slipstream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 405	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.2	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/horizoncase, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedsewa$6.01$4.510.75x4h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$1.510.25x5h

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | High Seas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$1.740.29x5h

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$1.510.25x5h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$0.830.14x5h

StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$4.120.69x5h

Nova | Toy Soldier (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$5.430.90x5h

G3SG1 | High Seas (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$0.930.15x5h

AWP | PAW (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalStuntCoordinator$6.01$3.390.56x5h

CZ75-Auto | Eco (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$6.01$5.370.89x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$6.01	92.04%	92
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$6.01	92.08%	92
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$6.01	92.04%	92
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$6.01	92.08%	92
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$6.01	92.01%	92
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$6.01	92.09%	92
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$6.01	92.02%	92
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$6.01	92.05%	92
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$6.01	92.09%	92
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.01	92.10%	92
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.01	92.00%	92
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$6.01	92.03%	92
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$6.01	92.08%	92

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.3%classified 13.7%covert 0.8%Covert 0.0%Classified 0.0%pink 3.2%Mythical 10.3%restricted 32.9%Restricted 11.6%mil spec 9.6%milspec 9.0%#8847ff 6.8%Mil Spec Grade 1.2%Rare 0.7%best hit —