Hydra

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$11.00

Advertised RTP

92.01%

EV $10.12 from 128 items

Observed RTP, 30d

76.27%

214 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.0%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

76.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

78.00%±24.88109 openings

7 days

76.09%±18.33201 openings

30 days

76.27%±17.79214 openings

since tracking started

76.27%±17.79214 openings

52.5%78.0%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	109	78.00%±24.9	−1.1σ	odds
7d	201	76.09%±18.3	−1.7σ	odds
30d	214	76.27%±17.8	−1.7σ	odds
All	214	76.27%±17.8	−1.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values128 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 214 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$357	0.7%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$337	0.6%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$292	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$261	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$255	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$242	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$225	0.4%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$224	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$192	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$176	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$160	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$144	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$140	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 3,448	$133	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,333	$132	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 2,500	$124	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$117	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,639	$108	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$105	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 820	$87.94	1.1%	0	0.3	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 943	$87.76	0.9%	0	0.2	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$82.32	0.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$80.08	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,887	$64.49	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Dual Berettas \| Cobra Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$63.48	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 1,250	$58.71	0.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,852	$55.94	0.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 980	$55.44	0.6%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 261	$55.11	2.1%	0	0.8	—
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 389	$48.77	1.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$45.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847FF	1 in 239	$42.96	1.8%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 441	$42.42	1.0%	0	0.5	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 315	$37.90	1.2%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 286	$32.39	1.1%	0	0.7	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 362	$31.23	0.9%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 177	$30.85	1.7%	0	1.2	0.00×
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 265	$30.69	1.1%	4	0.8	—
P90 \| Death Grip (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 351	$29.40	0.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,818	$28.89	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 529	$28.26	0.5%	0	0.4	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 380	$27.26	0.7%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Death Grip (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 855	$27.05	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 408	$26.39	0.6%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 270	$25.53	0.9%	0	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$24.65	1.1%	0	0.9	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 485	$24.27	0.5%	0	0.4	—
P2000 \| Woodsman (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 238	$23.83	1.0%	3	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 247	$23.41	0.9%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 271	$23.28	0.8%	0	0.8	—
P2000 \| Woodsman (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 185	$22.28	1.2%	5	1.2	4.31×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$21.14	1.1%	2	1.2	1.73×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 262	$20.45	0.8%	2	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 147	$20.33	1.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 156	$20.22	1.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 292	$19.68	0.7%	1	0.7	—
P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 207	$19.18	0.9%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 180	$18.71	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 186	$18.63	1.0%	1	1.2	0.87×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 183	$18.32	1.0%	2	1.2	1.71×
P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 179	$17.22	1.0%	0	1.2	0.00×
P90 \| Death Grip (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 151	$17.20	1.1%	2	1.4	1.41×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 146	$16.44	1.1%	4	1.5	2.73×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 132	$16.33	1.2%	3	1.6	1.85×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$15.96	0.9%	1	1.3	0.79×
P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 134	$15.42	1.1%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 150	$15.35	1.0%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Woodsman (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 150	$15.27	1.0%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$14.77	1.3%	2	2.0	1.01×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Death Grip (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 142	$14.74	1.0%	1	1.5	0.66×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$14.50	1.7%	2	2.5	0.79×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 77	$13.88	1.8%	0	2.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 82	$11.10	1.3%	2	2.6	0.76×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 57	$10.86	1.9%	6	3.7	1.61×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 49	$10.79	2.2%	3	4.4	0.69×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 46	$10.48	2.3%	2	4.7	0.43×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 119	$10.20	0.8%	2	1.8	1.11×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 104	$10.19	1.0%	3	2.1	1.46×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 97	$9.77	1.0%	3	2.2	1.35×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 106	$9.72	0.9%	2	2.0	0.99×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Macabre (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 86	$9.58	1.1%	4	2.5	1.60×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 69	$8.87	1.3%	3	3.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 75	$7.79	1.0%	4	2.8	1.41×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Macabre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$7.67	1.2%	3	3.5	0.87×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$7.51	1.4%	4	4.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$7.50	1.3%	5	3.7	1.36×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 147	$7.29	0.5%	2	1.5	1.38×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 120	$7.14	0.6%	1	1.8	0.56×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 120	$6.93	0.6%	5	1.8	2.81×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 121	$6.93	0.6%	1	1.8	0.57×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 101	$6.85	0.7%	3	2.1	1.42×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 104	$6.47	0.6%	2	2.1	0.97×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 100	$6.15	0.6%	0	2.1	0.00×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 92	$6.06	0.7%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Macabre (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 72	$5.67	0.8%	1	3.0	0.34×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 86	$5.65	0.6%	2	2.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 107	$5.54	0.5%	4	2.0	2.01×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 89	$5.39	0.6%	6	2.4	2.50×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 165	$5.21	0.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 138	$5.15	0.4%	3	1.5	1.94×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 124	$5.13	0.4%	3	1.7	1.74×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 166	$5.05	0.3%	2	1.3	1.55×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 239	$5.03	0.2%	0	0.9	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 246	$5.01	0.2%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 314	$4.96	0.2%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 228	$4.92	0.2%	0	0.9	—
USP-S \| Blueprint (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 193	$4.79	0.2%	0	1.1	0.00×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 140	$4.70	0.3%	1	1.5	0.66×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 116	$4.59	0.4%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 105	$4.58	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Macabre (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$4.57	0.3%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 152	$4.47	0.3%	6	1.4	4.26×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$4.42	0.3%	1	1.5	0.67×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 138	$4.41	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 101	$4.34	0.4%	3	2.1	1.42×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 110	$4.24	0.4%	5	1.9	2.58×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 90	$4.20	0.5%	2	2.4	0.84×
USP-S \| Blueprint (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 81	$4.20	0.5%	4	2.6	1.52×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 83	$4.17	0.5%	1	2.6	0.39×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 70	$4.08	0.6%	6	3.1	1.96×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 70	$4.03	0.6%	4	3.0	1.32×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$4.02	0.9%	2	4.8	0.42×
Tec-9 \| Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 40	$3.84	1.0%	11	5.4	2.05×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$3.80	1.1%	0	6.5	0.00×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$3.73	1.4%	7	7.8	0.89×
MAC-10 \| Aloha (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 23	$3.72	1.6%	13	9.5	1.37×
MAG-7 \| Hard Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$3.66	1.9%	10	11.2	0.90×
FAMAS \| Macabre (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$3.55	2.2%	12	13.6	0.88×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/hydra, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Aloha (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FFB0RAT$11.00$6.700.61x2h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecB0RAT$11.00$7.510.68x2h

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specB0RAT$11.00$3.650.33x2h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Aloha (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecB0RAT$11.00$7.510.68x2h

AK-47 | Orbit Mk01 (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedStuntCoordinator$11.00$30.702.79x5h

FAMAS | Macabre (Factory New)weapon · milspecStuntCoordinator$11.00$10.860.99x5h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Woodsman (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedEnr!en$11.00$15.271.39x6h

Tec-9 | Cut Out (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specPhylong$11.00$4.970.45x9h

Tec-9 | Cut Out (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1Phylong$11.00$3.840.35x9h

MAG-7 | Hard Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil specPhylong$11.00$3.680.33x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$11.00	92.01%	128
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$11.00	92.02%	128
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$11.00	92.02%	128
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$11.00	92.09%	128
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$11.00	92.03%	128
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$11.00	92.10%	128
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$11.00	92.02%	128
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$11.00	92.08%	128
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$11.00	92.04%	128
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$11.00	92.08%	128
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$11.00	92.06%	128
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$11.00	92.09%	128
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$11.00	92.00%	128

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 3.9%covert 0.1%classified 0.7%mil spec 28.9%restricted 12.1%#8847FF 0.4%Rare 1.7%milspec 17.2%violet 1.9%Mythical 0.4%#8847ff 1.3%other 2.5%Restricted 0.8%#4b69ff 12.2%Mil Spec Grade 11.7%Mil Spec 2.2%#4B69FF 0.8%blue 1.3%best hit —