Imogen

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$130.14

Advertised RTP

92.05%

EV $119.79 from 56 items

Observed RTP, 30d

95.39%

340 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

18 openings · below min

7 days

93.38%±10.84274 openings

30 days

95.39%±9.72340 openings

since tracking started

95.39%±9.72340 openings

36.5%78.8%121.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	18	78.59%±41.6	—	odds
7d	274	93.38%±10.8	+0.2σ	odds
30d	340	95.39%±9.72	+0.7σ	odds
All	340	95.39%±9.72	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 340 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 529	$830	1.3%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 488	$768	1.3%	2	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 917	$752	0.7%	1	0.4	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 485	$701	1.2%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Imminent Danger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 239	$639	2.2%	0	1.4	0.00×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 392	$564	1.2%	1	0.9	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$515	1.9%	1	1.5	0.67×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 202	$496	2.0%	5	1.7	2.98×
M4A1-S \| Icarus Fell (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 188	$488	2.2%	4	1.8	2.21×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 158	$465	2.4%	0	2.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 183	$416	1.9%	1	1.9	0.54×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 157	$393	2.1%	1	2.2	0.46×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 129	$357	2.3%	1	2.6	0.38×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 114	$353	2.6%	3	3.0	1.00×
AUG \| Akihabara Accept (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 100	$319	2.7%	3	3.4	0.89×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$309	2.5%	2	3.3	0.60×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 111	$253	1.9%	6	3.1	1.95×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 82	$250	2.5%	6	4.2	1.45×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 83	$233	2.3%	3	4.1	0.73×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 78	$232	2.5%	3	4.3	0.69×
UMP-45 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$218	1.7%	7	3.1	2.25×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 83	$197	2.0%	4	4.1	0.98×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 98	$197	1.7%	3	3.5	0.86×
Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$189	2.0%	3	4.3	0.70×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 80	$188	2.0%	3	4.2	0.71×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Foundation (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 104	$187	1.5%	4	3.3	1.22×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 90	$176	1.6%	5	3.8	1.33×
AWP \| Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 73	$152	1.7%	6	4.7	1.29×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 63	$146	1.9%	9	5.4	1.67×
Souvenir Desert Eagle \| Fennec Fox (Battle-Scarred)Souvenir · weapon · Legendary	1 in 52	$142	2.3%	6	6.6	0.91×
AWP \| Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$140	2.2%	12	6.5	1.86×
M4A4 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 68	$134	1.6%	6	5.0	1.20×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 66	$123	1.6%	4	5.2	0.78×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 59	$111	1.6%	7	5.8	1.21×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 49	$103	1.8%	7	6.9	1.01×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 44	$103	1.9%	8	7.7	1.04×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 53	$99.49	1.6%	4	6.4	0.62×
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 62	$98.58	1.3%	4	5.5	0.72×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 82	$96.75	1.0%	5	4.2	1.20×
★ Nomad Knife \| Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 68	$96.12	1.2%	3	5.0	0.60×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 59	$81.55	1.2%	7	5.8	1.22×
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Bronzed (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 53	$79.12	1.3%	4	6.5	0.62×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 43	$76.72	1.5%	4	7.9	0.51×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 36	$71.83	1.7%	6	9.5	0.63×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 37	$71.83	1.6%	15	9.2	1.63×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 52	$71.54	1.1%	5	6.5	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 48	$67.95	1.2%	4	7.1	0.57×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 45	$67.90	1.3%	12	7.6	1.58×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 37	$63.44	1.4%	5	9.2	0.54×
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$61.16	1.8%	15	11.8	1.27×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$49.18	1.6%	7	13.1	0.53×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$48.45	2.0%	23	16.5	1.40×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 19	$47.03	2.1%	14	18.1	0.77×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 16	$44.45	2.3%	27	21.5	1.26×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 17	$40.23	2.0%	21	19.8	1.06×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 14	$33.87	2.1%	18	25.1	0.72×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/imogen, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertGaRiKK$130$8126.24x4d

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertkaLu.$130$8036.17x7d

M4A1-S | Imminent Danger (Well-Worn)weapon · covertMiler$130$7805.99x2d

★ Butterfly Knife | Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertCutăre$cu$130$5904.54x8d

AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertpatas2204iphon$130$5784.44x1d

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertNin$130$5183.98x7d

StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covertMiler$130$5113.93x2d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AK-47 | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covertEegene$130$48.530.37x11h

AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classifiedcat$130$1401.08x16h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covertcat$130$1030.79x16h

★ Nomad Knife | Night Stripe (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knifecat$130$96.760.74x16h

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$130$1531.18x16h

UMP-45 | Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classifiedcat$130$2331.79x16h

AWP | Graphite (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedcat$130$1531.18x16h

AWP | Graphite (Factory New)weapon · classifiedcat$130$1401.08x16h

AK-47 | Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covertcat$130$39.860.31x16h

AK-47 | Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covertcat$130$1100.85x16h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.05%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$130	92.05%	56
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$130	92.02%	56
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$130	92.03%	56
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$130	92.04%	56
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$130	92.06%	56
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$130	92.04%	56
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$130	92.05%	56
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$130	92.02%	56
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$130	92.01%	56
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$130	92.10%	56
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$130	92.04%	56
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$130	92.08%	56
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$130	92.04%	56
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$130	92.01%	56
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$130	92.06%	56
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$130	92.02%	56
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$130	92.00%	56
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$130	92.00%	56

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 63.7%gold 0.2%restricted 0.5%extraordinary 6.9%classified 5.4%Classified 1.2%pink 1.3%Covert 1.1%Legendary 1.9%covert knife 5.3%#eb4b4b 2.3%red 10.2%best hit $812 (6.24x)