Investor

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$6.20

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $5.70 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

93.67%

8,349 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.64%±7.781,010 openings

7 days

93.55%±3.235,876 openings

30 days

93.67%±2.768,349 openings

since tracking started

93.67%±2.768,349 openings

84.0%92.5%101.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,010	92.64%±7.78	+0.2σ	odds
7d	5,876	93.55%±3.23	+0.9σ	odds
30d	8,349	93.67%±2.76	+1.2σ	odds
All	8,349	93.67%±2.76	+1.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 8,360 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Survival Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · sunny	1 in 9,091	$114	0.2%	2	0.9	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$101	0.3%	5	1.5	3.32×
★ Moto Gloves \| Finish Line (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 226	$73.92	5.7%	14	37.0	0.38×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 794	$69.74	1.5%	28	10.5	2.66×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 629	$54.57	1.5%	43	13.3	3.23×
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 93	$39.70	7.5%	60	90.4	0.66×
M4A4 \| Full Throttle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 149	$25.92	3.0%	67	56.1	1.19×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 77	$21.50	4.9%	126	108.9	1.16×
FAMAS \| Djinn (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$13.33	5.1%	187	182.8	1.02×
P90 \| Deathgaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$11.61	5.3%	191	218.6	0.87×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$9.85	4.6%	230	221.6	1.04×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 35	$8.76	4.3%	233	236.7	0.98×
SG 553 \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 39	$8.48	3.8%	215	216.4	0.99×
M4A1-S \| Party Animal (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$7.76	2.7%	211	163.9	1.29×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 52	$7.37	2.5%	163	161.9	1.01×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 48	$7.31	2.7%	161	175.4	0.92×
AWP \| Green Energy (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 45	$7.06	2.8%	166	186.9	0.89×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 49	$6.32	2.3%	181	171.4	1.06×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 51	$6.10	2.1%	184	163.5	1.13×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 37	$5.11	2.4%	229	224.9	1.02×
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 30	$4.99	2.9%	239	281.0	0.85×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$4.78	2.7%	244	265.8	0.92×
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 27	$4.69	3.0%	301	306.1	0.98×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 46	$4.18	1.6%	192	181.7	1.06×
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 35	$4.02	2.0%	221	239.5	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classified	1 in 29	$3.94	2.4%	245	286.6	0.85×
AWP \| Duality (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.40	2.4%	315	338.9	0.93×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 28	$3.32	2.1%	319	298.4	1.07×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$3.08	2.2%	362	341.2	1.06×
AWP \| Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$2.88	2.6%	457	435.6	1.05×
AWP \| Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.45	2.0%	401	394.9	1.02×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$2.37	2.3%	473	471.3	1.00×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 15	$2.07	2.4%	559	558.5	1.00×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 13	$1.56	2.1%	668	627.0	1.07×
Five-SeveN \| Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 12	$1.24	1.8%	668	690.7	0.97×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/investor, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetB4KOL CS2.ME$6.20$3.110.50x4m

Five-SeveN | Buddy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1$6.20$1.240.20x4m

AK-47 | Searing Rage (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ce61$6.20$4.680.75x7m

AWP | Exothermic (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1$6.20$2.890.47x12m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryB4KOL CS2.ME$6.20$4.830.78x13m

AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedWwW team$6.20$2.430.39x16m

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restrictedmetooo4ka2$6.20$2.080.34x21m

AWP | Worm God (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedmetooo4ka2$6.20$2.430.39x22m

M4A1-S | Stratosphere (Field-Tested)weapon · Classifiedmetooo4ka2$6.20$3.970.64x23m

Glock-18 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythicalmetooo4ka2$6.20$1.560.25x25m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$6.20	92.03%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$6.20	92.05%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$6.20	92.06%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$6.20	92.08%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.20	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$6.20	92.01%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert 1.3%extraordinary 0.4%Ancient 0.1%red 0.7%classified 5.2%pink 24.6%Legendary 10.7%#d32ce6 7.9%Classified 3.4%Mythical 11.1%violet 9.7%restricted 18.2%Restricted 6.7%best hit —