Is for me?

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$7.71
Advertised RTP
92.03%
EV $7.10 from 150 items
Observed RTP, 30d
89.69%
1,379 openings, odds method
Variance
5.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
15.2%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.1%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
86.16%±32.78225 openings
7 days
89.58%±14.711,194 openings
30 days
89.69%±13.741,379 openings
since tracking started
89.69%±13.741,379 openings
52.5%86.0%119.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h22586.16%±32.8−0.4σodds
7d1,19489.58%±14.7−0.3σodds
30d1,37989.69%±13.7−0.3σodds
All1,37989.69%±13.7−0.3σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values150 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,380 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1,2881.8%00.1—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 7,692$4140.8%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$3551.0%00.3—
AK-47 | The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$2380.5%10.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$2370.5%00.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$1970.6%00.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1820.3%00.1—
StatTrak™ AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1470.4%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1350.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1330.2%10.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1250.3%00.2—
AWP | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1190.2%10.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1190.2%00.1—
AK-47 | The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1190.3%00.2—
AK-47 | The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$1160.3%00.2—
AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1140.2%00.2—
AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1130.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1110.3%00.2—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1080.2%00.2—
AWP | Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$95.380.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$93.720.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$93.650.2%00.2—
M4A4 | Zirka (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$93.150.2%10.3—
M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$89.210.2%00.2—
AWP | Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$88.830.2%10.2—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Bullet Rain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$84.120.1%10.2—
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$79.570.2%10.3—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 518$54.701.5%12.70.38×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,000$49.000.1%30.3—
UMP-45 | Blaze (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 5,263$46.020.1%10.3—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,010$44.470.6%11.40.73×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 1,639$42.890.4%10.8—
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary1 in 412$40.651.4%23.40.60×
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary1 in 704$40.050.8%22.01.02×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 658$39.950.9%12.10.48×
★ Moto Gloves | Transport (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 592$38.710.9%02.30.00×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 5,882$36.430.1%30.2—
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 417$35.391.2%33.30.91×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 386$34.271.3%33.60.84×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 521$33.520.9%52.61.89×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 450$27.490.9%33.10.98×
M4A4 | Zirka (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 215$27.471.8%86.41.25×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 322$26.921.2%44.30.93×
M4A4 | Zirka (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 219$26.171.7%56.30.79×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 455$23.060.7%33.00.99×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 498$21.840.6%102.83.61×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 213$21.311.4%66.50.93×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 307$21.041.0%64.51.33×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 270$20.591.1%55.10.98×
M4A4 | Zirka (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 236$20.101.2%45.80.69×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 418$19.570.7%83.32.43×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 350$18.840.8%43.91.01×
UMP-45 | Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 236$18.451.1%85.81.37×
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Well-Worn)weapon · industrial1 in 389$17.270.6%63.51.69×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 202$16.761.2%46.80.59×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 505$15.870.4%62.72.20×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 181$15.241.2%47.60.52×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 685$15.140.3%32.01.49×
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Factory New)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 235$15.130.9%45.90.68×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 324$14.950.7%34.30.70×
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 901$14.740.2%51.53.26×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 292$14.010.7%14.70.21×
AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 232$13.990.8%25.90.34×
AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 324$13.930.6%54.31.17×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 455$13.840.4%53.01.65×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 219$13.750.9%46.30.63×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 508$13.550.4%12.70.37×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 455$13.500.4%33.00.99×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 410$13.230.5%33.40.89×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 376$13.190.5%33.70.82×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 1,818$12.860.1%20.8—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 314$12.850.6%44.40.91×
Dual Berettas | Demolition (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 568$12.590.3%42.41.65×
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Minimal Wear)weapon · industrial1 in 308$12.550.6%04.50.00×
Five-SeveN | Monkey Business (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 368$12.430.5%33.80.80×
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Industrial Grade1 in 228$12.350.8%46.10.66×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 971$12.190.2%21.41.41×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Tatter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 275$11.720.6%45.00.80×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 166$11.701.0%58.30.60×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 358$11.400.4%63.91.56×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 196$11.320.8%67.00.85×
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 326$11.060.5%54.21.18×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 182$10.750.8%57.60.66×
XM1014 | Banana Leaf (Field-Tested)weapon · industrial1 in 219$10.680.7%46.30.63×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Tatter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 230$10.510.6%26.00.33×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 193$10.490.8%77.10.98×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 217$10.380.7%76.41.10×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Tatter (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 159$10.360.9%98.71.04×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 217$10.170.7%126.41.89×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 146$9.830.9%59.50.53×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 111$9.551.2%1112.40.89×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 102$9.291.3%613.60.44×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 88$8.191.3%1215.60.77×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1 in 85$8.031.3%1116.20.68×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 73$7.701.5%1318.80.69×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 74$7.651.5%718.70.37×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 141$7.470.7%189.81.84×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 139$7.370.7%1310.01.30×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 181$7.150.6%87.61.05×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 160$7.140.6%58.60.58×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 145$6.930.7%169.51.68×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical1 in 163$6.860.6%108.51.18×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 329$6.810.3%104.22.38×
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 162$6.800.6%108.51.17×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 163$6.510.6%68.50.71×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 134$6.460.7%710.30.68×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 118$6.340.8%1211.71.03×
MP9 | Rose Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 116$6.320.8%611.90.51×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 132$6.290.7%410.40.38×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 161$6.200.5%118.61.29×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee61 in 125$6.090.7%1511.11.35×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 106$5.770.8%913.00.69×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 128$5.760.6%1710.81.58×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff1 in 105$5.740.8%1013.20.76×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mythical1 in 97$5.630.8%1014.20.70×
MAC-10 | Tatter (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 130$5.550.6%2610.62.45×
R8 Revolver | Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 87$5.450.9%1515.90.94×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet1 in 86$5.230.9%2216.11.37×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 77$4.680.9%2917.91.62×
PP-Bizon | Antique (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 67$4.340.9%2020.70.97×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 59$4.241.0%2023.20.86×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 56$4.241.1%2124.80.85×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 59$4.151.0%1523.30.64×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 81$4.140.7%1617.00.94×
P250 | Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 131$4.120.4%1610.51.52×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 111$4.090.5%1412.41.13×
M4A4 | Tooth Fairy (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 109$4.020.5%1712.61.34×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 89$3.890.6%1515.50.97×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 74$3.840.7%2118.71.12×
P250 | Franklin (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61 in 57$3.620.9%2824.01.17×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff1 in 58$3.620.9%2624.01.08×
P90 | Chopper (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 54$3.310.9%3725.61.45×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 48$2.800.8%3229.01.10×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 41$2.690.9%3533.31.05×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 35$2.681.1%3739.30.94×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 37$2.320.9%2537.70.66×
P250 | Franklin (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 57$2.280.6%2824.41.15×
Glock-18 | Royal Legion (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 54$2.100.6%2225.70.86×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 42$1.990.7%2133.20.63×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 58$1.800.4%1723.90.71×
P90 | Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 50$1.750.5%2727.60.98×
StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 56$1.740.4%2024.50.82×
P250 | Franklin (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 58$1.530.4%2623.81.09×
P90 | Chopper (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted1 in 69$1.420.3%2119.91.06×
USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare1 in 67$1.410.3%1920.70.92×
Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 49$1.240.4%2728.40.95×
USP-S | Check Engine (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec1 in 55$0.760.2%2525.01.00×
USP-S | Check Engine (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 48$0.540.2%4429.01.52×
USP-S | Check Engine (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 42$0.490.2%4332.71.31×
USP-S | Check Engine (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 45$0.460.1%3131.01.00×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/is_for_me, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.03%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC$7.7192.03%150
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$7.7192.00%150
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$7.7192.00%150
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$7.7192.07%150
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$7.7192.00%150
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$7.7192.06%150
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$7.7192.00%150
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$7.7192.00%150
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$7.7192.00%150
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$7.7192.00%150
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$7.7192.00%150
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$7.7192.00%150
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$7.7192.00%150
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$7.7192.00%150
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$7.7192.09%150
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$7.7192.00%150
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$7.7192.00%150
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$7.7192.00%150
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$7.7192.01%150
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$7.7192.01%150
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$7.7192.02%150
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$7.7192.10%150
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$7.7192.00%150
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$7.7191.99%150
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$7.7192.07%150
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$7.7192.00%150
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$7.7192.01%150
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$7.7192.00%150
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$7.7192.09%150
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$7.7192.00%150
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.3%Restricted 4.7%restricted 44.9%classified 12.9%milspec 0.0%extraordinary 0.6%Classified 3.0%violet 4.4%mil spec 9.0%industrial 1.0%Industrial Grade 0.9%Legendary 3.2%#8847ff 6.1%Mythical 2.4%#d32ee6 2.5%pink 2.6%Rare 1.5%best hit —