JOKER

A case on GGDROP (multicases), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$16.52
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $15.20 from 137 items
Observed RTP, 30d
79.27%
598 openings, odds method
Variance
7.7×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
76.0%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
46 openings · below min
7 days
78.35%±24.95525 openings
30 days
79.27%±23.71598 openings
since tracking started
79.27%±23.71598 openings
-0.5%75.5%151.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h4672.24%±78.5—odds
7d52578.35%±24.9−1.1σodds
30d59879.27%±23.7−1.1σodds
All59879.27%±23.7−1.1σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values137 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 598 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife | Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · #EB4B4B1 in 7,692$3,0372.6%00.1—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Factory New)weapon · restricted1 in 6,667$1,3031.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,882$6400.7%00.1—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 9,091$5770.4%00.1—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,000$5470.7%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$5150.5%00.1—
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$4960.6%00.1—
StatTrak™ AWP | Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$4650.5%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 5,000$4640.6%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$4270.5%00.1—
★ Flip Knife | Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 5,882$4140.5%00.1—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,263$3660.5%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$3530.4%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$3090.2%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert1 in 8,333$3050.2%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2770.3%10.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$2690.2%00.1—
AWP | Oni Taiji (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 6,667$2570.3%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert1 in 6,250$2530.3%00.1—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · knife · covert knife1 in 6,667$2520.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,692$2390.2%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$2210.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$2180.3%10.1—
★ StatTrak™ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · Covert1 in 6,667$2060.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1980.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1910.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$1790.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$1750.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 7,143$1680.2%00.1—
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 5,263$1440.2%00.1—
Charm | Butane Buddycharm · Ancient1 in 5,882$1410.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1390.2%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$1330.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 10,000$1300.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red1 in 10,000$1270.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$1270.2%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert1 in 9,091$1260.1%00.1—
★ Huntsman Knife | Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 5,882$1230.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 5,263$1220.2%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 5,263$1170.1%00.1—
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff1 in 7,692$1150.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$1140.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 7,692$1130.1%00.1—
★ Driver Gloves | King Snake (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary1 in 8,333$1110.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$1080.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$92.480.1%00.1—
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 10,000$90.610.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 9,091$87.130.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,882$86.460.1%00.1—
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet1 in 9,091$83.510.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 5,000$83.330.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$83.250.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$82.350.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 8,333$82.260.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,250$81.550.1%00.1—
MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$80.730.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee61 in 7,692$79.310.1%00.1—
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 9,091$78.490.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$77.830.1%00.1—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$75.730.1%00.1—
UMP-45 | Crime Scene (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 8,333$75.010.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$73.800.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,556$71.830.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 5,882$71.540.1%00.1—
Desert Eagle | Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red1 in 3,571$70.750.1%10.2—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 5,556$69.570.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 6,250$68.400.1%00.1—
USP-S | Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 5,263$67.550.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 5,000$66.350.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 10,000$65.830.0%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 1,961$63.160.2%00.3—
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 5,556$61.340.1%00.1—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 6,667$61.280.1%00.1—
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 5,000$60.970.1%10.1—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 303$58.911.3%02.00.00×
Five-SeveN | Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 935$57.050.4%00.6—
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 348$56.381.1%11.70.58×
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted1 in 308$55.221.2%01.90.00×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 360$48.690.9%21.71.20×
AK-47 | Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert1 in 7,143$46.800.0%10.1—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 202$44.751.5%13.00.34×
P250 | Nuclear Threat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical1 in 242$43.511.2%22.50.81×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 302$42.890.9%12.00.51×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert1 in 356$42.250.8%11.70.60×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 239$40.591.1%12.50.40×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 400$38.140.6%31.52.01×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient1 in 422$37.980.6%21.41.41×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 165$35.441.4%33.60.83×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 237$35.321.0%32.51.19×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 613$34.270.4%51.0—
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 249$30.870.8%22.40.83×
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ce61 in 123$30.261.6%44.90.82×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 157$29.481.2%43.81.05×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert1 in 125$28.661.5%34.80.63×
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 312$28.410.6%21.91.04×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 104$27.641.7%25.70.35×
StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 163$27.591.1%13.70.27×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 469$26.960.4%61.34.71×
StatTrak™ XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 159$26.741.1%83.72.13×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 212$23.840.7%12.80.35×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert1 in 107$22.781.4%35.60.54×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 77$22.781.9%77.80.90×
StatTrak™ MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · red1 in 111$22.441.3%45.40.74×
AWP | Fever Dream (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 81$22.051.8%87.41.08×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 207$21.900.7%82.92.76×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 121$21.831.2%44.90.81×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 119$21.751.2%55.00.99×
StatTrak™ AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 116$21.271.2%55.20.97×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 92$19.891.4%76.51.08×
SSG 08 | Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 65$19.612.0%69.20.65×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 50$17.762.4%1312.11.08×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 47$16.102.3%412.80.31×
AWP | Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 46$14.612.1%1413.11.07×
AWP | Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 39$14.022.4%1415.50.90×
AWP | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 40$13.912.3%1314.80.88×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 50$13.331.7%1211.91.01×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 67$12.701.3%149.01.56×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 59$12.631.4%1010.20.98×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 52$12.011.5%811.40.70×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 51$11.391.5%1411.81.19×
Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 56$11.101.3%1210.61.13×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 41$10.161.6%1914.61.30×
XM1014 | Tranquility (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 39$9.471.6%1115.50.71×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 37$8.811.6%1316.10.81×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 33$8.621.7%1218.20.66×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 31$7.311.5%2119.01.10×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 32$6.711.4%2818.41.52×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 30$6.591.4%1619.80.81×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 28$6.381.5%1821.10.85×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 39$6.241.1%1715.41.10×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 44$6.150.9%1213.50.89×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified1 in 36$6.031.1%2016.41.22×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 31$5.791.2%2519.31.30×
MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 26$5.581.4%2622.71.15×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 21$4.401.4%2429.20.82×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 18$4.141.5%3233.50.96×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary1 in 15$4.101.8%5440.41.34×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/joker-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$16.5292.00%137
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$16.5292.05%137
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$16.5292.00%137
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$16.5292.06%137
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$16.5292.05%137
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$16.5292.01%137
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$16.5292.00%137
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$16.5292.00%137
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$16.5292.00%137
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$16.5292.10%137
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$16.5292.08%137
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$16.5292.09%137
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$16.5292.07%137
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$16.5292.10%137
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$16.5292.06%137
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$16.5292.06%137
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$16.5292.10%137
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$16.5292.05%137
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$16.5292.00%137
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$16.5292.07%137
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$16.5292.05%137
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$16.5292.05%137
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$16.5292.03%137
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$16.5292.10%137
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$16.5292.09%137
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$16.5292.03%137
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$16.5292.08%137
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$16.5292.00%137
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$16.5292.08%137
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$16.5292.09%137
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed#EB4B4B 0.0%restricted 0.4%covert knife 0.1%classified 61.8%covert 3.7%Covert 0.8%Ancient 0.3%red 1.0%#8847ff 0.0%extraordinary 0.0%violet 0.0%#d32ee6 5.6%Classified 4.4%Mythical 0.4%Legendary 15.5%#eb4b4b 0.4%#d32ce6 0.8%pink 4.9%best hit —