Juggler

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.39

Advertised RTP

92.02%

EV $2.20 from 84 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.14%

17.4K openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

92.21%±4.122,374 openings

7 days

92.17%±1.6115.3K openings

30 days

92.14%±1.5117.4K openings

since tracking started

92.14%±1.5117.4K openings

87.5%92.3%97.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2,374	92.21%±4.12	+0.1σ	odds
7d	15.3K	92.17%±1.61	+0.2σ	odds
30d	17.4K	92.14%±1.51	+0.2σ	odds
All	17.4K	92.14%±1.51	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values84 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 17.4K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$31.19	0.2%	3	2.6	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$27.41	0.2%	7	3.1	2.23×
M4A1-S \| Guardian (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 2,381	$25.81	0.5%	5	7.3	0.68×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$25.57	0.1%	9	1.9	4.70×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 8,333	$24.74	0.1%	8	2.1	3.83×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$20.87	0.1%	3	2.1	1.44×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$19.92	0.1%	4	2.1	1.91×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$19.78	0.1%	2	2.6	0.77×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 6,667	$19.24	0.1%	6	2.6	2.30×
AWP \| Crakow! (Battle-Scarred)weapon · uncommon	1 in 7,692	$18.79	0.1%	9	2.3	3.98×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 2,439	$17.80	0.3%	10	7.1	1.40×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 2,174	$16.80	0.4%	7	8.0	0.87×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,042	$16.53	0.7%	5	16.7	0.30×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$14.71	0.1%	58	2.1	27.76×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,556	$14.50	0.1%	18	3.1	5.74×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$14.40	0.1%	11	2.4	4.51×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 1,064	$14.35	0.6%	9	16.4	0.55×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$13.63	0.1%	11	2.3	4.86×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 3,704	$13.42	0.2%	8	4.7	1.70×
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 595	$13.23	1.0%	6	29.2	0.21×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,149	$13.05	0.5%	7	15.1	0.46×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,266	$12.33	0.4%	10	13.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$12.01	0.1%	11	2.3	4.86×
AUG \| Syd Mead (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 658	$11.99	0.8%	8	26.5	0.30×
MP7 \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$11.79	0.1%	15	2.4	6.15×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$11.56	0.1%	13	3.5	3.73×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$11.39	0.5%	18	15.7	1.15×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 909	$11.27	0.6%	18	19.1	0.94×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$11.10	0.6%	15	21.1	0.71×
AWP \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 1,754	$10.08	0.3%	27	9.9	2.72×
AWP \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 662	$9.94	0.7%	21	26.3	0.80×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 353	$9.92	1.3%	17	49.3	0.35×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 328	$9.79	1.4%	35	53.1	0.66×
Glock-18 \| Grinder (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 699	$9.73	0.6%	40	24.9	1.61×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 621	$9.27	0.7%	26	28.0	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Big Iron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 485	$9.14	0.9%	26	35.9	0.72×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 746	$9.06	0.6%	37	23.3	1.59×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 262	$8.84	1.5%	47	66.5	0.71×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 348	$8.32	1.1%	40	50.0	0.80×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 296	$7.83	1.2%	55	58.8	0.93×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 313	$7.66	1.1%	52	55.5	0.94×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Grinder (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 221	$7.48	1.5%	78	78.7	0.99×
MP7 \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 256	$7.35	1.3%	75	67.9	1.10×
MP7 \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 169	$7.28	2.0%	75	102.9	0.73×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 172	$6.09	1.6%	103	101.0	1.02×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 147	$5.76	1.8%	84	118.4	0.71×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 138	$5.25	1.7%	158	126.0	1.25×
P250 \| Epicenter (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$4.96	2.1%	145	159.5	0.91×
M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 93	$4.96	2.4%	148	187.5	0.79×
P250 \| Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 109	$4.88	2.0%	151	159.3	0.95×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 163	$4.75	1.3%	167	106.5	1.57×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 142	$4.73	1.5%	129	122.6	1.05×
CZ75-Auto \| Yellow Jacket (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$4.55	1.7%	123	143.1	0.86×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$3.90	1.8%	190	172.2	1.10×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 90	$3.79	1.9%	233	193.9	1.20×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$3.65	2.3%	229	239.7	0.96×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 65	$3.62	2.5%	299	267.1	1.12×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 82	$3.45	1.9%	222	211.7	1.05×
AWP \| Duality (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 81	$3.33	1.9%	199	215.2	0.92×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 76	$3.25	2.0%	241	230.0	1.05×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 59	$3.20	2.5%	494	295.4	1.67×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$2.98	2.3%	331	298.9	1.11×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$2.60	2.3%	333	341.4	0.98×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$2.37	2.5%	375	403.9	0.93×
Glock-18 \| Nuclear Garden (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$2.32	3.0%	463	486.9	0.95×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.06	2.8%	541	527.1	1.03×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 35	$1.99	2.6%	417	504.5	0.83×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 37	$1.90	2.3%	424	470.0	0.90×
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$1.65	2.4%	506	563.2	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.51	2.0%	554	495.3	1.12×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$1.51	2.0%	534	498.2	1.07×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$1.27	1.9%	547	561.3	0.97×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.22	2.0%	509	613.0	0.83×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.16	1.6%	517	540.4	0.96×
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 26	$1.15	2.0%	523	667.6	0.78×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$1.12	1.5%	519	521.4	1.00×
Tec-9 \| Brother (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$0.79	1.2%	561	581.6	0.96×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.73	1.3%	747	694.6	1.08×
Dual Berettas \| Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 21	$0.63	1.4%	785	835.1	0.94×
P90 \| Neoqueen (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$0.61	1.6%	1,002	992.7	1.01×
Galil AR \| Control (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 27	$0.53	0.9%	862	647.1	1.33×
Galil AR \| Control (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$0.50	0.9%	618	689.0	0.90×
Sticker \| Zeusception (Holo)sticker · Mythical	1 in 27	$0.47	0.8%	671	651.3	1.03×
AK-47 \| VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 22	$0.37	0.8%	790	804.1	0.98×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/juggler, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedCS.PRO AEZY$2.39$0.720.30x1m

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Liquidation (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedCS.PRO AEZY$2.39$3.651.53x1m

Dual Berettas | Angel Eyes (Field-Tested)weapon · violetCS.PRO AEZY$2.39$0.630.26x1m

AK-47 | VariCamo Grey (Factory New)weapon · #5e98d9moNic$2.39$0.370.15x2m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmoNic$2.39$1.130.47x2m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedmoNic$2.39$2.060.86x2m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffmoNic$2.39$3.611.51x2m

P250 | Epicenter (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkCabiseeek$2.39$4.872.04x20m

Negev | Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedCARCAHİL ADAM$2.39$1.150.48x24m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.39	92.02%	84
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.39	92.01%	84
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.39	92.02%	84
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.39	92.08%	84
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.39	92.06%	84
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.39	92.07%	84
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.39	92.06%	84
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.39	92.09%	84
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.39	92.06%	84
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.39	92.05%	84
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.39	92.08%	84
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.39	92.06%	84
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	84

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 5.0%pink 5.2%#d32ee6 0.3%uncommon 0.0%Legendary 0.4%restricted 50.8%Classified 0.2%Mythical 3.9%violet 16.2%#8847ff 7.9%Restricted 5.6%#5e98d9 4.6%best hit —