Kilowatt Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.00

Advertised RTP

92.04%

EV $3.68 from 50 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.32%

192 openings, odds method

Variance

3.2×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 13

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

90.78%±25.22178 openings

30 days

89.32%±24.28192 openings

since tracking started

89.32%±24.28192 openings

11.0%147.3%283.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	147.07%±135.6	—	odds
7d	178	90.78%±25.2	−0.1σ	odds
30d	192	89.32%±24.3	−0.2σ	odds
All	192	89.32%±24.3	−0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values50 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 192 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 8,333	$120	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ Kukri Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 1,136	$93.01	2.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 97	$37.91	10.6%	1	2.0	0.51×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 251	$33.87	3.7%	1	0.8	—
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 126	$29.58	6.4%	0	1.5	0.00×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 140	$28.19	5.5%	1	1.4	0.73×
AWP \| Chrome Cannon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 64	$28.05	12.0%	4	3.0	1.33×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 33	$12.87	10.7%	8	5.9	1.36×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 29	$6.93	6.4%	10	6.5	1.53×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$4.97	5.8%	15	8.3	1.81×
M4A1-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Classified	1 in 17	$4.35	6.9%	8	11.3	0.71×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 16	$3.75	6.6%	10	12.4	0.81×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 18	$3.55	5.5%	1	10.9	0.09×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$3.44	4.8%	11	9.9	1.11×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 20	$3.42	4.6%	16	9.4	1.70×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 17	$0.79	1.2%	15	11.0	1.36×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.59	1.2%	3	14.4	0.21×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 11	$0.58	1.5%	21	17.9	1.17×
Tec-9 \| Slag (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$0.58	1.4%	17	17.1	0.99×
MP7 \| Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	10.3%	$0.53	1.5%	1	19.8	0.05×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 114	$0.50	0.1%	9	1.7	5.33×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 114	$0.50	0.1%	12	1.7	7.13×
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 93	$0.49	0.1%	0	2.1	0.00×
Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 260	$0.49	0.1%	16	0.7	—
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 180	$0.47	0.1%	1	1.1	0.94×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 481	$0.46	0.0%	2	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 364	$0.42	0.0%	1	0.5	—
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 228	$0.41	0.0%	3	0.8	—
Five-SeveN \| Hybrid (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 184	$0.41	0.1%	0	1.0	0.00×
M4A4 \| Etch Lord (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 422	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Sawed-Off \| Analog Input (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 243	$0.40	0.0%	2	0.8	—
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 237	$0.38	0.0%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 122	$0.38	0.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 234	$0.34	0.0%	2	0.8	—
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 138	$0.26	0.1%	0	1.4	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 279	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.7	—
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 177	$0.18	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 182	$0.18	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Dezastre (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 181	$0.18	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 146	$0.17	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 193	$0.16	0.0%	0	1.0	—
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 181	$0.15	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 418	$0.14	0.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 134	$0.14	0.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
Nova \| Dark Sigil (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 185	$0.14	0.0%	0	1.0	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Hideout (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 3,226	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Light Box (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 758	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Slag (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 429	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Motorized (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 229	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.8	—
XM1014 \| Irezumi (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 295	$0.12	0.0%	0	0.7	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/kilowatt-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

MP7 | Just Smile (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetFame to nation$4.00$0.590.15x3h

AWP | Chrome Cannon (Well-Worn)weapon · redPhylong$4.00$28.447.11x13h

MP7 | Just Smile (Well-Worn)weapon · violetPhylong$4.00$0.400.10x13h

M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · ClassifiedPhylong$4.00$4.321.08x13h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkKapitein$4.00$3.460.87x14h

USP-S | Jawbreaker (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkcigiG$4.00$3.470.87x21h

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Well-Worn)weapon · violetcigiG$4.00$0.500.13x21h

Tec-9 | Slag (Factory New)weapon · milspecMami$4.00$0.540.14x1d

Glock-18 | Block-18 (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetMami$4.00$0.780.20x1d

StatTrak™ M4A1-S | Black Lotus (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · pinkMami$4.00$12.753.19x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.04%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.00	92.04%	50
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.00	92.01%	50
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.00	92.01%	50
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.00	92.04%	50
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.00	92.03%	50
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.00	92.10%	50
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.00	92.05%	50
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.00	92.03%	50
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.00	92.01%	50
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.00	92.09%	50
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.00	92.07%	50
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.00	92.01%	50
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.00	92.00%	50

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedsunny 0.0%covert knife 0.1%red 4.5%pink 17.5%Classified 9.3%classified 6.4%violet 44.5%milspec 8.9%blue 4.4%Mil Spec 0.8%Rare 0.7%#4b69ff 2.5%Mil Spec Grade 0.6%best hit —