Knife

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$179.00

Advertised RTP

86.00%

EV $153.94 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.13%

241 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

30 openings · below min

7 days

89.52%±10.61223 openings

30 days

87.13%±10.22241 openings

since tracking started

87.13%±10.22241 openings

68.5%98.5%128.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	30	98.57%±29.3	—	odds
7d	223	89.52%±10.6	+0.7σ	odds
30d	241	87.13%±10.2	+0.2σ	odds
All	241	87.13%±10.2	+0.2σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 241 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Karambit \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 195	$862	2.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 265	$703	1.7%	2	0.9	—
★ Karambit \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 214	$678	2.1%	3	1.1	2.67×
★ StatTrak™ M9 Bayonet \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 274	$631	1.5%	0	0.9	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · gold	1 in 214	$628	1.9%	2	1.1	1.77×
★ Karambit \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 427	$625	1.0%	0	0.6	—
★ Karambit \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 288	$608	1.4%	1	0.8	—
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifes	1 in 510	$590	0.8%	1	0.5	—
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 424	$564	0.9%	1	0.6	—
★ StatTrak™ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 342	$528	1.0%	0	0.7	—
★ Karambit \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 238	$528	1.4%	1	1.0	0.99×
★ Butterfly Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 293	$516	1.1%	1	0.8	—
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 285	$509	1.2%	0	0.8	—
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 201	$480	1.6%	1	1.2	0.83×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 151	$477	2.1%	0	1.6	0.00×
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Minimal Wear)knife · Covert	1 in 246	$473	1.2%	1	1.0	—
★ Bayonet \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 148	$436	1.9%	3	1.6	1.84×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 287	$435	1.0%	1	0.8	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 155	$429	1.8%	2	1.6	1.29×
★ Karambit \| Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 178	$429	1.6%	2	1.4	1.48×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 133	$414	2.0%	4	1.8	2.21×
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 106	$388	2.4%	3	2.3	1.32×
★ Talon Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 111	$348	2.0%	4	2.2	1.84×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 87	$293	2.2%	1	2.8	0.36×
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 75	$282	2.4%	2	3.2	0.62×
★ Flip Knife \| Marble Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 58	$278	3.1%	1	4.2	0.24×
★ Falchion Knife \| Gamma Doppler (Factory New) (Phase 2)knife · covert · Phase 2	1 in 69	$251	2.4%	2	3.5	0.57×
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 134	$247	1.2%	3	1.8	1.67×
★ Talon Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 153	$246	1.0%	2	1.6	1.27×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 92	$241	1.7%	4	2.6	1.52×
★ Bowie Knife \| Fade (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 225	$227	0.7%	0	1.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 142	$225	1.0%	0	1.7	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 115	$222	1.3%	0	2.1	0.00×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 96	$216	1.5%	3	2.5	1.20×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 129	$203	1.0%	2	1.9	1.07×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 97	$201	1.3%	2	2.5	0.81×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 86	$192	1.5%	2	2.8	0.71×
★ Bayonet \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 95	$188	1.3%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 101	$177	1.1%	2	2.4	0.84×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 85	$173	1.3%	2	2.8	0.71×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 81	$161	1.3%	3	3.0	1.01×
★ Nomad Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · rare	1 in 75	$161	1.4%	4	3.2	1.24×
★ Nomad Knife \| Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 93	$159	1.1%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 93	$149	1.0%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 121	$148	0.8%	3	2.0	1.50×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 99	$145	1.0%	1	2.4	0.41×
★ Bayonet \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 73	$144	1.3%	8	3.3	2.43×
★ Ursus Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 93	$136	0.9%	3	2.6	1.16×
★ Nomad Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 102	$133	0.8%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 74	$131	1.2%	1	3.3	0.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 65	$128	1.3%	2	3.7	0.54×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 83	$120	0.9%	4	2.9	1.37×
★ Bowie Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 76	$115	1.0%	1	3.2	0.31×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Well-Worn)knife · rare	1 in 68	$110	1.0%	4	3.5	1.13×
★ Gut Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 66	$106	1.0%	1	3.6	0.27×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 73	$104	0.9%	5	3.3	1.52×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Autotronic (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 77	$96.13	0.8%	3	3.1	0.96×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 83	$95.87	0.7%	5	2.9	1.73×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 96	$95.58	0.6%	2	2.5	0.79×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 81	$89.54	0.7%	2	3.0	0.67×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 132	$89.42	0.4%	3	1.8	1.64×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knife	1 in 108	$87.68	0.5%	3	2.2	1.34×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 82	$87.51	0.7%	5	3.0	1.69×
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 133	$83.64	0.4%	5	1.8	2.76×
★ Bowie Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 118	$78.90	0.4%	2	2.0	0.98×
★ Falchion Knife \| Scorched (Field-Tested)knife · #ffd700	1 in 102	$77.56	0.5%	4	2.4	1.70×
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 63	$76.58	0.8%	2	3.9	0.52×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 87	$74.05	0.6%	3	2.8	1.08×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 160	$73.66	0.3%	1	1.5	0.66×
★ Falchion Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 149	$73.53	0.3%	4	1.6	2.48×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · sunny	1 in 143	$72.30	0.3%	3	1.7	1.78×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 175	$70.13	0.3%	2	1.4	1.45×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Minimal Wear)knife · Immortal	1 in 125	$68.01	0.4%	2	1.9	1.04×
★ Bowie Knife \| Ultraviolet (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 114	$67.70	0.4%	2	2.1	0.95×
★ Ursus Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 94	$66.85	0.5%	2	2.6	0.78×
★ Bowie Knife \| Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 81	$66.33	0.5%	5	3.0	1.69×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Blue Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 112	$64.33	0.4%	1	2.2	0.46×
★ Huntsman Knife \| Bright Water (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 99	$60.16	0.4%	0	2.4	0.00×
★ Bowie Knife \| Safari Mesh (Well-Worn)knife · #ffd700	1 in 77	$58.68	0.5%	6	3.1	1.91×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 67	$57.34	0.6%	4	3.6	1.12×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 58	$54.87	0.6%	3	4.2	0.72×
★ Paracord Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 60	$53.93	0.6%	4	4.0	1.00×
★ Gut Knife \| Safari Mesh (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 65	$53.62	0.5%	3	3.7	0.80×
★ Navaja Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 50	$50.65	0.7%	5	4.9	1.03×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Night (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700	1 in 51	$50.57	0.6%	4	4.7	0.85×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Ultraviolet (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 38	$50.17	0.9%	4	6.4	0.63×
★ Navaja Knife \| Boreal Forest (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 32	$46.92	1.0%	2	7.5	0.27×
★ Navaja Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 27	$46.52	1.1%	5	8.8	0.57×
★ Navaja Knife \| Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortal	1 in 23	$45.54	1.3%	14	10.5	1.33×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Rust Coat (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 20	$43.31	1.4%	17	11.8	1.44×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/knife, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covertkuzzi$179$7454.16x6d

★ Karambit | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covertK4me$179$7234.04x4d

★ Karambit | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertVilla$179$6923.86x3d

★ Karambit | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertkuzzi$179$6813.81x4d

★ Karambit | Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covertCS.PRO AEZY$179$6713.75x6d

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · goldबकवास$179$6213.47x15h

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · goldVRMKD$179$6103.41x5d

★ Karambit | Lore (Battle-Scarred)knife · rareÖL1000$179$5963.33x1d

★ Bayonet | Scorched (Factory New)knife · knifesDark Knight$179$5913.30x4d

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Well-Worn)knife · goldDmitriy$179$5503.07x4d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

★ Falchion Knife | Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knifeNonesy$179$75.890.42x36m

★ Navaja Knife | Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$50.660.28x5h

★ Bayonet | Blue Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$2411.35x5h

★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Factory New)knife · covertEnr!en$179$66.340.37x5h

★ Bayonet | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$1440.80x5h

★ Bayonet | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · covertNEGEVBOT$179$1440.80x6h

★ Huntsman Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · #ffd700M09$179$73.630.41x12h

★ Navaja Knife | Scorched (Battle-Scarred)knife · Immortalelisa$179$45.770.26x13h

★ Talon Knife | Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert knifeDark Knight$179$3882.17x14h

★ Butterfly Knife | Scorched (Minimal Wear)knife · goldबकवास$179$6213.47x15h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 86.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$179	85.95%	90
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$179	85.93%	90
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$179	85.92%	90
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$179	85.92%	90
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$179	85.95%	90
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$179	85.93%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$179	85.92%	90
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$179	85.93%	90
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$179	85.96%	90
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$179	85.96%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$179	85.91%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$179	85.95%	90
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$179	86.00%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$179	85.99%	90
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$179	85.93%	90
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$179	85.95%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 60.0%covert knife 16.9%gold 6.3%rare 3.2%knifes 0.2%Covert 0.4%Immortal 6.2%sunny 2.0%#ffd700 4.9%best hit $745 (4.16x)