Knight

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$3.89

Advertised RTP

91.96%

EV $3.58 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.57%

3,012 openings, odds method

Variance

0.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

28.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

60.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

93.53%±4.83518 openings

7 days

92.64%±2.062,766 openings

30 days

92.57%±1.983,012 openings

since tracking started

92.57%±1.983,012 openings

88.0%93.5%99.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	518	93.53%±4.83	+0.6σ	odds
7d	2,766	92.64%±2.06	+0.7σ	odds
30d	3,012	92.57%±1.98	+0.6σ	odds
All	3,012	92.57%±1.98	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 3,012 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$10.06	10.8%	108	115.5	0.94×
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 18	$6.12	9.6%	140	168.9	0.83×
Sawed-Off \| Devourer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 24	$5.99	7.0%	133	125.9	1.06×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$5.81	7.0%	116	130.5	0.89×
MP9 \| Hydra (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 26	$5.76	6.3%	111	117.8	0.94×
Galil AR \| Shattered (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 50	$5.72	3.2%	109	60.0	1.82×
AUG \| Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$5.46	3.6%	91	70.7	1.29×
MP9 \| Mount Fuji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 40	$5.02	3.5%	79	75.2	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 38	$4.75	3.5%	85	78.6	1.08×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 30	$4.62	4.3%	84	99.2	0.85×
AUG \| Death by Puppy (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 43	$4.50	2.9%	112	69.5	1.61×
P250 \| Supernova (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 41	$4.16	2.8%	100	73.4	1.36×
USP-S \| Cortex (Well-Worn)weapon · Classified	1 in 25	$3.66	4.1%	116	119.8	0.97×
USP-S \| Jawbreaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 27	$3.42	3.6%	120	112.7	1.06×
M4A4 \| Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$3.42	3.6%	114	112.1	1.02×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 23	$3.27	3.9%	122	128.7	0.95×
AWP \| Exothermic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 24	$2.69	3.1%	109	125.1	0.87×
Tec-9 \| Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$2.36	2.6%	113	119.7	0.94×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 20	$2.08	2.9%	136	147.6	0.92×
M4A4 \| Sheet Lightning (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$2.03	2.6%	150	135.8	1.10×
Glock-18 \| Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 17	$1.34	2.2%	149	179.8	0.83×
Desert Eagle \| Heat Treated (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 18	$1.28	2.0%	162	168.7	0.96×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.22	1.6%	142	137.9	1.03×
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$1.16	2.0%	139	188.0	0.74×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 63	$1.10	0.5%	67	48.0	1.40×
Five-SeveN \| Fraise Crane (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 73	$1.10	0.4%	57	41.2	1.38×
USP-S \| Bleeding Edge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$1.08	0.5%	42	49.1	0.86×
Glock-18 \| Coral Bloom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 243	$0.53	0.1%	6	12.4	0.48×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/knight, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Devourer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCS.PRO AEZY$3.89$5.901.52x51m

M4A4 | Evil Daimyo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedCS.PRO AEZY$3.89$3.410.88x51m

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCS.PRO AEZY$3.89$5.811.49x51m

Tec-9 | Remote Control (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkCS.PRO AEZY$3.89$2.350.60x51m

Glock-18 | Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkCS.PRO AEZY$3.89$4.731.22x51m

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6Cabiseeek$3.89$4.621.19x53m

MP9 | Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedIndiferent$3.89$1.220.31x58m

AUG | Torque (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedStihl$3.89$5.461.40x1h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6no4ort$3.89$4.621.19x2h

Glock-18 | Candy Apple (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSor1nelenski$3.89$1.330.34x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 91.96%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$3.89	91.91%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$3.89	91.91%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$3.89	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$3.89	91.95%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$3.89	91.92%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$3.89	91.99%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$3.89	91.98%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$3.89	91.93%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$3.89	91.98%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$3.89	91.94%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$3.89	91.93%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$3.89	91.93%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$3.89	91.99%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$3.89	91.91%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$3.89	91.93%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$3.89	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$3.89	91.97%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$3.89	91.96%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$3.89	91.93%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$3.89	91.97%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$3.89	91.95%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$3.89	91.97%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$3.89	91.91%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$3.89	91.94%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 24.2%mil spec 8.0%restricted 16.9%#8847ff 11.2%pink 20.2%#d32ee6 3.3%Mythical 2.4%Classified 4.0%Rare 5.3%violet 3.2%#4b69ff 1.4%best hit —