Magician

A case on GGDROP (event), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$11.99
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $11.03 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
92.97%
10.2K openings, odds method
Variance
0.9×
of price², per opening
Tail share
20.9%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
67.6%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
89.85%±5.331,332 openings
7 days
92.79%±2.049,120 openings
30 days
92.97%±1.9210.2K openings
since tracking started
92.97%±1.9210.2K openings
84.0%90.0%96.0%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h1,33289.85%±5.33−0.8σodds
7d9,12092.79%±2.04+0.7σodds
30d10.2K92.97%±1.92+1.0σodds
All10.2K92.97%±1.92+1.0σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 10.2K openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
★ Skeleton Knife | Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · Covert1 in 7,143$1270.2%01.40.00×
★ Huntsman Knife | Lore (Well-Worn)knife · gold1 in 10,000$95.580.1%01.00.00×
StatTrak™ AWP | Printstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b1 in 7,143$84.330.1%71.44.88×
M4A4 | Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified1 in 5,556$83.150.1%71.83.79×
Sir Bloody Miami Darryl | The Professionalsagent · master1 in 5,882$81.030.1%61.73.44×
★ Bowie Knife | Bright Water (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife1 in 5,000$77.520.1%182.08.78×
★ Falchion Knife | Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife1 in 8,333$66.460.1%191.215.45×
★ Falchion Knife | Safari Mesh (Field-Tested)knife · covert1 in 127$64.504.6%3480.70.42×
AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 200$50.382.3%5251.21.01×
AK-47 | Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 152$47.032.8%7667.41.13×
AK-47 | The Oligarch (Field-Tested)weapon · red1 in 156$45.872.7%7265.71.10×
AWP | Queen's Gambit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · rare1 in 137$43.522.9%8375.01.11×
USP-S | Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert1 in 88$40.244.2%117116.81.00×
MP7 | Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert1 in 82$35.443.9%161124.71.29×
M4A4 | Radiation Hazard (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 63$35.135.0%130161.90.80×
AK-47 | Frontside Misty (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 59$30.774.8%183175.01.05×
FAMAS | Styx (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical1 in 40$21.935.0%295258.51.14×
Glock-18 | AXIA (Well-Worn)weapon · rare1 in 41$21.914.9%271252.91.07×
AWP | Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 32$19.635.5%333318.41.05×
Sawed-Off | Devourer (Factory New)weapon · classified1 in 27$17.736.0%396379.81.04×
CZ75-Auto | Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 28$14.524.7%317362.50.87×
M4A4 | Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified1 in 26$13.644.8%401401.71.00×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 25$13.334.9%447418.11.07×
AK-47 | Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink1 in 19$9.844.6%522531.00.98×
FAMAS | Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 21$8.313.6%506484.41.04×
MP7 | Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 19$7.283.5%595540.61.10×
M4A1-S | Blood Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec1 in 15$5.723.6%545702.70.78×
Maximus | Sabreagent · violet1 in 18$5.542.8%590578.41.02×
StatTrak™ P250 | Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 20$5.342.5%565523.61.08×
AK-47 | Searing Rage (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 20$4.982.3%495518.10.96×
AK-47 | Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 23$4.241.7%390452.00.86×
AUG | Lapis Lazuli (Field-Tested)weapon · violet1 in 20$3.331.5%494501.40.99×
Charm | Lil' Chirpcharm · #d32ce61 in 17$3.101.7%614614.31.00×
AK-47 | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare1 in 14$2.081.4%745741.81.00×
StatTrak™ Nova | Toy Soldier (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 14$1.841.2%763739.61.03×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/magician, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$11.9992.00%35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$11.9992.00%35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$11.9992.00%35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$11.9992.01%35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$11.9992.07%35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$11.9992.00%35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$11.9992.08%35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$11.9992.00%35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$11.9992.00%35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$11.9992.00%35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$11.9992.00%35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$11.9992.00%35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$11.9992.00%35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$11.9992.00%35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$11.9992.08%35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$11.9992.00%35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$11.9992.00%35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$11.9992.00%35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$11.9992.09%35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$11.9992.00%35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$11.9992.00%35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$11.9992.00%35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$11.9992.00%35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$11.9992.00%35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$11.9992.04%35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$11.9992.07%35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$11.9992.10%35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$11.9992.04%35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$11.9992.00%35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$11.9992.04%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%gold 0.0%#eb4b4b 0.0%classified 12.9%master 0.0%covert knife 0.0%covert 4.3%red 0.6%rare 3.2%mil spec 8.4%Mythical 2.5%Legendary 12.3%pink 10.2%restricted 17.2%violet 14.9%#d32ce6 6.0%Rare 7.2%best hit —