Milspec

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.95

Advertised RTP

89.34%

EV $0.85 from 99 items

Observed RTP, 30d

115.97%

417 openings, odds method

Variance

1.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

72.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

7 openings · below min

7 days

118.11%±13.56384 openings

30 days

115.97%±13.02417 openings

since tracking started

115.97%±13.02417 openings

-0.5%90.3%181.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 89.68% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (102.95% – 128.99%, 417 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	7	81.05%±99.2	—	odds
7d	384	118.11%±13.6	+4.1σ	odds
30d	417	115.97%±13.0	+4.0σ	odds
All	417	115.97%±13.0	+4.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values99 items · odds summed to 0.9899, rescaled · observed counts over 417 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 8,333	$35.81	0.5%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 10,000	$23.32	0.3%	1	0.0	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 6,250	$23.01	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Souvenir MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)Souvenir · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$21.13	0.5%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,000	$19.28	0.5%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 5,000	$18.89	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Toxic (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$17.52	0.4%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 5,882	$16.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 5,882	$16.01	0.3%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 5,000	$15.91	0.4%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Bengal Tiger (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 7,692	$15.70	0.2%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Threat Detected (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$14.84	0.2%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$14.81	0.3%	0	0.1	—
MP9 \| Setting Sun (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,091	$14.29	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Souvenir Tec-9 \| Toxic (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 10,000	$12.49	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 7,692	$10.19	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$9.83	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$9.70	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Galil AR \| Shattered (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 6,667	$8.44	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 7,692	$8.42	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 5,263	$8.42	0.2%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,515	$8.40	0.7%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 9,091	$7.71	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 7,692	$7.21	0.1%	1	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 1,961	$6.93	0.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 806	$5.84	0.9%	0	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 3,846	$5.71	0.2%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 10,000	$5.59	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 617	$5.49	1.1%	2	0.7	—
Galil AR \| Shattered (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 820	$5.15	0.7%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Isaac (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 2,174	$5.04	0.3%	0	0.2	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 6,667	$5.01	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 599	$4.92	1.0%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 452	$4.59	1.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 376	$4.49	1.4%	1	1.1	0.89×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 395	$4.43	1.3%	1	1.1	0.94×
M4A1-S \| Briefing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 248	$4.41	2.1%	4	1.7	2.35×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 260	$4.27	2.0%	0	1.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 227	$3.21	1.7%	3	1.9	1.61×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 149	$3.07	2.4%	4	2.8	1.42×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 95	$2.75	3.4%	5	4.4	1.13×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 121	$2.31	2.3%	7	3.5	2.02×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 117	$2.16	2.2%	5	3.6	1.39×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$2.10	2.5%	8	4.2	1.90×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 94	$2.08	2.6%	8	4.5	1.79×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 122	$1.99	1.9%	2	3.5	0.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 110	$1.80	1.9%	4	3.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$1.80	2.2%	6	4.3	1.40×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$1.80	2.0%	9	3.9	2.33×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 111	$1.70	1.8%	4	3.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 96	$1.67	2.1%	5	4.4	1.14×
M249 \| System Lock (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 83	$1.62	2.3%	7	5.1	1.37×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$1.38	2.7%	13	6.8	1.90×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 55	$1.16	2.5%	11	7.7	1.44×
USP-S \| Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 43	$1.07	3.0%	11	9.8	1.12×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$0.97	3.2%	17	11.7	1.45×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 40	$0.95	2.8%	11	10.4	1.06×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Slipstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 57	$0.89	1.9%	8	7.4	1.08×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$0.85	1.8%	9	7.6	1.19×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 66	$0.84	1.5%	8	6.4	1.24×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$0.80	1.6%	8	6.9	1.17×
AWP \| Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$0.79	1.2%	6	5.4	1.12×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 84	$0.78	1.1%	16	5.0	3.20×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 74	$0.77	1.2%	12	5.7	2.10×
USP-S \| Lead Conduit (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 73	$0.77	1.3%	14	5.7	2.44×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 76	$0.69	1.1%	8	5.5	1.45×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 72	$0.64	1.1%	9	5.8	1.54×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 62	$0.54	1.0%	10	6.8	1.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Bronze Deco (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 58	$0.54	1.1%	10	7.3	1.38×
XM1014 \| Slipstream (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 58	$0.54	1.1%	10	7.3	1.37×
Glock-18 \| Wraiths (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 45	$0.51	1.3%	13	9.3	1.40×
P90 \| Elite Build (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.51	1.3%	15	8.9	1.68×
SG 553 \| Atlas (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 52	$0.46	1.1%	9	8.2	1.10×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.45	1.0%	13	7.9	1.64×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$0.45	1.0%	6	7.6	0.79×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 61	$0.43	0.8%	10	6.9	1.45×
SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 60	$0.42	0.8%	5	7.0	0.71×
P90 \| Grim (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 103	$0.41	0.5%	7	4.1	1.71×
SG 553 \| Atlas (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 64	$0.40	0.7%	7	6.5	1.07×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 59	$0.37	0.8%	8	7.2	1.11×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 60	$0.36	0.7%	6	7.0	0.86×
P250 \| Valence (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 54	$0.34	0.8%	12	7.8	1.54×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 46	$0.33	0.9%	9	9.2	0.98×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Atlas (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.29	0.7%	11	7.9	1.39×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 47	$0.27	0.7%	5	8.9	0.56×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 43	$0.19	0.5%	0	9.8	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| Brass (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 40	$0.18	0.5%	0	10.6	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 47	$0.16	0.4%	0	9.0	0.00×
SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$0.16	0.4%	0	8.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$0.16	0.4%	0	8.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.16	0.4%	0	7.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 48	$0.15	0.4%	0	8.8	0.00×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Gnarled (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 53	$0.15	0.3%	0	7.9	0.00×
P90 \| Freight (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.15	0.3%	0	7.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Mainframe 001 (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 50	$0.15	0.4%	0	8.3	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$0.14	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
P2000 \| Gnarled (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 78	$0.14	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Freight (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$0.14	0.2%	0	5.4	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Well-Worn)weapon · Rare	1 in 86	$0.12	0.2%	0	4.9	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/milspec, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Valence (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecFiNiK$0.95$0.430.45x5h

StatTrak™ R8 Revolver | Crimson Web (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspecChili$0.95$0.440.46x10h

USP-S | Torque (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specdanvx$0.95$1.071.13x12h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specВіктор Янукович$0.95$1.441.52x14h

AWP | Capillary (Field-Tested)weapon · milspecİnthemerin$0.95$0.780.82x17h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffNexXxi$0.95$0.450.47x18h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareArtist$0.95$0.780.82x21h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Torque (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspecNexXxi$0.95$1.731.82x23h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · RareNexXxi$0.95$0.770.81x23h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ffTpsy$0.95$0.360.38x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.34%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.95	89.34%	99
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.95	89.32%	99
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.95	89.13%	99
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.95	89.93%	99
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.95	89.93%	99
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.95	89.51%	99
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.95	89.46%	99
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.95	89.43%	99
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.95	90.01%	99
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.95	89.42%	99
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.95	89.33%	99
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.95	90.42%	99
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.95	90.15%	99
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.95	89.71%	99
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.95	89.90%	99
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.95	88.92%	99
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.95	89.96%	99
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.95	89.49%	99
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.95	89.89%	99
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.95	89.60%	99
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.95	90.42%	99
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.95	89.82%	99
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.95	90.10%	99
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.95	90.11%	99
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.95	89.81%	99
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.95	88.98%	99
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.95	89.56%	99
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.95	89.75%	99
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.95	89.83%	99
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.95	89.57%	99

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.7%mil spec 14.1%milspec 41.8%Rare 6.0%#4b69ff 20.7%Mil Spec Grade 3.7%#4B69FF 0.0%Mil Spec 0.8%blue 10.1%best hit —