MOUZ

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.59

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $0.54 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

150.61%

1,619 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

159.23%±13.34229 openings

7 days

151.30%±5.101,484 openings

30 days

150.61%±4.881,619 openings

since tracking started

150.61%±4.881,619 openings

91.5%132.3%173.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (145.73% – 155.49%, 1,619 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	229	159.23%±13.3	+9.9σ	odds
7d	1,484	151.30%±5.10	+22.8σ	odds
30d	1,619	150.61%±4.88	+23.5σ	odds
All	1,619	150.61%±4.88	+23.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,619 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 7,692	$5.58	0.1%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| K.O. Factory (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 7,143	$5.11	0.1%	1	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Syndicate (Field-Tested)weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,882	$5.05	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Block-18 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 10,000	$5.03	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Franklin (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 10,000	$4.12	0.1%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Tooth Fairy (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 5,882	$4.09	0.1%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Saibā Oni (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 7,692	$3.98	0.1%	6	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 980	$3.75	0.7%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Osiris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 161	$3.23	3.7%	7	10.1	0.69×
FAMAS \| Hexane (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 926	$2.96	0.6%	22	1.7	12.58×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 110	$2.59	4.4%	43	14.8	2.91×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$2.25	6.4%	50	25.1	2.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$1.65	6.5%	56	34.8	1.61×
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$1.51	7.8%	84	45.5	1.85×
USP-S \| Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 28	$1.40	9.3%	90	58.3	1.55×
P90 \| Grim (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 22	$1.11	9.3%	113	73.7	1.53×
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Origami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 27	$0.82	5.6%	126	60.1	2.10×
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 21	$0.78	6.7%	156	75.5	2.07×
Sticker \| Gonna Leave A Mark (Holo)sticker · #8847ff	1 in 17	$0.60	6.7%	185	97.9	1.89×
Galil AR \| NV (Factory New)weapon · light blue	1 in 15	$0.52	6.3%	240	106.7	2.25×
MAC-10 \| Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 15	$0.38	4.7%	190	108.1	1.76×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Light Box (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.31	4.5%	248	126.7	1.96×
Charm \| Lil' Cacklecharm · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.27	4.0%	0	130.5	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| The Daily Deagle (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 11	$0.23	3.8%	0	144.1	0.00×
M249 \| Bock Blocks (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.16	2.4%	0	130.2	0.00×
Dual Berettas \| Mystic Conjunction (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #5e98d9	1 in 13	$0.14	2.0%	0	124.0	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Battle-Scarred)weapon · industrial	1 in 13	$0.14	2.0%	0	124.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Nexus (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 13	$0.14	2.0%	0	123.1	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/mouz-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Check Engine (Factory New)weapon · RareONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$1.412.39x4m

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$0.380.64x4m

Sticker | Gonna Leave A Mark (Holo)sticker · #8847ffONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$0.601.02x4m

P2000 | Obsidian (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$2.243.80x6m

MAC-10 | Classic Crate (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$0.380.64x6m

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalONETAP[ARIZA]$0.59$1.632.76x6m

Galil AR | NV (Factory New)weapon · light bluedefusen677$0.59$0.530.90x14m

Sticker | Gonna Leave A Mark (Holo)sticker · #8847ff❦حب المال♂$0.59$0.601.02x45m

StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Origami (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rareуьу$0.59$0.801.36x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.59	92.06%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.59	92.09%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.59	92.05%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.59	92.08%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.59	92.01%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.59	92.10%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.59	92.05%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.59	92.05%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.59	92.09%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.59	92.02%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.59	92.10%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.59	92.02%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.59	92.09%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.59	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listeduncommon 0.0%pink 0.0%Restricted 0.0%#8847ff 6.1%classified 0.0%Legendary 0.1%Mythical 2.8%#4b69ff 23.8%Mil Spec Grade 0.9%restricted 4.4%Rare 12.0%Mil Spec 4.6%light blue 6.6%mil spec 6.7%milspec 7.8%blue 8.9%#5e98d9 7.7%industrial 7.7%best hit —