Music Case

A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$7.51

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $6.91 from 47 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.61%

125 openings, odds method

Variance

0.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

32.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.1%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

13 openings · below min

7 days

90.04%±11.86121 openings

30 days

89.61%±11.66125 openings

since tracking started

89.61%±11.66125 openings

74.5%111.5%148.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	13	111.46%±36.3	—	odds
7d	121	90.04%±11.9	−0.3σ	odds
30d	125	89.61%±11.7	−0.4σ	odds
All	125	89.61%±11.7	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values47 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 125 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Dren, Gunman Taco Truckmusic kit · high	1 in 14	$21.18	21.5%	8	8.8	0.91×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, Life's Not Out To Get Youmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 13	$15.06	17.3%	10	9.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCEmusic kit · high	1 in 11	$6.37	8.0%	10	10.9	0.92×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Packmusic kit · blue	1 in 12	$5.77	7.1%	11	10.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Robert Allaire, Insurgencymusic kit · blue	1 in 11	$5.77	7.5%	7	11.2	0.62×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high	1 in 11	$5.57	7.3%	11	11.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Ammusic kit · High Grade	1 in 12	$5.38	6.7%	9	10.7	0.84×
Music Kit \| Michael Bross, Invasion!music kit · 7	1 in 24	$5.21	3.1%	0	5.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Michael Bross, Invasion!music kit · blue	1 in 26	$4.94	2.7%	10	4.8	2.08×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Scarlxrd: King, Scarmusic kit	1 in 33	$4.58	2.0%	7	3.8	1.86×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assaultmusic kit · blue	1 in 22	$4.52	3.0%	7	5.7	1.23×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Mateo Messina, For No Mankindmusic kit · blue	1 in 38	$4.32	1.7%	4	3.3	1.20×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Scarlxrd, CHAIN$AW.LXADXUT.music kit · high	1 in 26	$4.17	2.3%	3	4.8	0.63×
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, The 8-Bit Kitmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 26	$3.94	2.2%	2	4.8	0.41×
Music Kit \| The Verkkars, EZ4ENCEmusic kit · blue	1 in 25	$3.80	2.2%	7	5.0	1.39×
Music Kit \| Kelly Bailey, Hazardous Environmentsmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 41	$3.63	1.3%	2	3.0	0.66×
Music Kit \| Neck Deep, The Lowlife Packmusic kit · high	1 in 46	$3.40	1.1%	1	2.7	0.37×
Music Kit \| Feed Me, High Noonmusic kit · blue	1 in 77	$3.24	0.6%	2	1.6	1.24×
Music Kit \| Scarlxrd: King, Scarmusic kit · 7	1 in 40	$3.23	1.2%	7	3.1	2.25×
Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Total Dominationmusic kit · 7	1 in 81	$3.20	0.6%	4	1.5	2.58×
Music Kit \| AWOLNATION, I Ammusic kit · High Grade	1 in 847	$3.18	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 88	$3.14	0.5%	0	1.4	0.00×
Music Kit \| Midnight Riders, All I Want for Christmasmusic kit · high	1 in 5,882	$3.07	0.0%	2	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Various Artists, Hotline Miamimusic kit · blue	1 in 1,124	$3.06	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Desert Firemusic kit · 7	1 in 9,091	$2.93	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Mocha Petalmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 9,091	$2.85	0.0%	1	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Scarlxrd, CHAIN$AW.LXADXUT.music kit · 7	1 in 7,143	$2.64	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Matt Levine, Driftermusic kit	1 in 8,333	$2.46	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Noisia, Sharpenedmusic kit · blue	1 in 6,250	$2.40	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Ian Hultquist, Lion's Mouthmusic kit · high	1 in 5,556	$2.31	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Troels Folmann, Uber Blasto Phonemusic kit · blue	1 in 7,143	$2.27	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragonmusic kit · high	1 in 7,143	$2.21	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Austin Wintory, Bachrammusic kit · High Grade	1 in 9,091	$2.06	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Ki:Theory, MOLOTOVmusic kit · high	1 in 7,692	$2.05	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assaultmusic kit · blue	1 in 8,333	$1.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Mord Fustang, Diamondsmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 5,000	$1.97	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Roam, Backbonemusic kit · High Grade	1 in 7,143	$1.80	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Matt Levine, Driftermusic kit · High Grade	1 in 7,143	$1.67	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Daniel Sadowski, Eye of the Dragonmusic kit · 7	1 in 5,882	$1.49	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noirmusic kit · #4B69FF	1 in 5,263	$1.14	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Sam Marshall, Bodaciousmusic kit · 7	1 in 9,091	$1.10	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Twin Atlantic, GLAmusic kit	1 in 5,263	$1.01	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Beartooth, Aggressivemusic kit · High Grade	1 in 6,667	$0.98	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Hundredth, FREEmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 6,250	$0.95	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Music Kit \| Skog, III-Arenamusic kit · High Grade	1 in 5,263	$0.85	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Tim Huling, Neo Noirmusic kit · High Grade	1 in 6,667	$0.77	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Music Kit \| Tree Adams and Ben Bromfield, M.U.D.D. FORCEmusic kit	1 in 6,667	$0.76	0.0%	0	0.0	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/musiccase, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Scarlxrd: King, Scarmusic kitPhylong$7.51$4.630.62x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Neck Deep, The Lowlife Packmusic kit · bluePhylong$7.51$5.760.77x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | The Verkkars, EZ4ENCEmusic kit · highPhylong$7.51$6.330.84x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Gunman Taco Truckmusic kit · highPhylong$7.51$20.972.79x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Daniel Sadowski, Crimson Assaultmusic kit · bluePhylong$7.51$4.540.60x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Dren, Gunman Taco Truckmusic kit · highPhylong$7.51$20.972.79x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Robert Allaire, Insurgencymusic kit · bluePhylong$7.51$5.770.77x13h

StatTrak™ Music Kit | Michael Bross, Invasion!music kit · bluePhylong$7.51$4.950.66x13h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$7.51	91.99%	47
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$7.51	91.97%	47
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$7.51	91.95%	47
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$7.51	91.93%	47
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$7.51	91.90%	47
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$7.51	91.93%	47
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$7.51	91.90%	47
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$7.51	91.91%	47
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.51	92.00%	47
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$7.51	91.93%	47
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$7.51	91.90%	47

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 7.9%high 30.8%#4B69FF 10.4%blue 34.0%High Grade 13.8%other 3.1%best hit —