NAVI

A case on GGDROP (cyber), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.85

Advertised RTP

92.02%

EV $0.78 from 28 items

Observed RTP, 30d

125.57%

2,699 openings, odds method

Variance

1.0×

of price², per opening

Tail share

20.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

69.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

114.31%±10.53344 openings

7 days

125.56%±4.092,280 openings

30 days

125.57%±3.782,699 openings

since tracking started

125.57%±3.782,699 openings

91.5%111.0%130.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.03% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (121.80% – 129.35%, 2,699 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	344	114.31%±10.5	+4.2σ	odds
7d	2,280	125.56%±4.09	+16.1σ	odds
30d	2,699	125.57%±3.78	+17.4σ	odds
All	2,699	125.57%±3.78	+17.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values28 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,699 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
MP9 \| Hydra (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 10,000	$6.99	0.1%	0	0.3	—
M4A1-S \| Glitched Paint (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 10,000	$5.46	0.1%	1	0.3	—
AWP \| Duality (Minimal Wear)weapon · Classified	1 in 5,882	$5.31	0.1%	1	0.5	—
AK-47 \| Searing Rage (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 5,263	$5.15	0.1%	2	0.5	—
Glock-18 \| Shinobu (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$4.75	0.1%	1	0.4	—
Zeus x27 \| Olympus (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 8,333	$4.69	0.1%	3	0.3	—
P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,000	$4.53	0.1%	10	0.5	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 775	$3.98	0.7%	22	3.5	6.32×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 139	$3.84	3.5%	39	19.5	2.00×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 89	$3.68	5.3%	36	30.5	1.18×
M4A4 \| Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$3.44	7.1%	58	43.4	1.34×
SSG 08 \| Dark Water (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 104	$3.22	4.0%	67	26.0	2.57×
Souvenir SSG 08 \| Azure Glyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial Grade	1 in 66	$2.49	4.8%	267	40.9	6.53×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 38	$2.18	7.4%	87	71.7	1.21×
Charm \| Lil' Momentscharm · #8847ff	1 in 34	$1.98	7.4%	122	79.0	1.54×
MAG-7 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$1.44	6.9%	164	101.8	1.61×
P90 \| Module (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$1.21	7.1%	172	124.1	1.39×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Handgun (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 22	$1.18	6.9%	147	124.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 17	$0.99	7.4%	216	158.4	1.36×
SG 553 \| Cyberforce (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 15	$0.61	5.1%	237	175.6	1.35×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$0.60	4.9%	246	173.9	1.41×
P90 \| Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 13	$0.47	4.8%	305	215.8	1.41×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 12	$0.45	5.0%	224	233.0	0.96×
AK-47 \| Olive Polycam (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 15	$0.31	2.6%	272	177.4	1.53×
Galil AR \| Sky Mandala (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.25	2.7%	0	227.1	0.00×
Charm \| Lil' Ballercharm · #4b69ff	1 in 12	$0.19	2.0%	0	218.5	0.00×
Charm \| Lil' Smokeycharm · #4b69ff	1 in 11	$0.18	2.1%	0	246.3	0.00×
PP-Bizon \| RMX (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	1 in 13	$0.16	1.6%	0	205.7	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/navi-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecdefusen677$0.85$0.610.72x5m

P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetdefusen677$0.85$0.480.56x5m

M4A4 | Griffin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricteddefusen677$0.85$3.414.01x6m

P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetVertuhalo$0.85$0.480.56x10m

P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetdžuzeppe$0.85$0.470.55x1h

P90 | Wave Breaker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetVØID$0.85$0.470.55x1h

Souvenir SSG 08 | Azure Glyph (Field-Tested)Souvenir · weapon · Industrial GradeVØID$0.85$1.211.42x1h

StatTrak™ P250 | Ripple (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecVØID$0.85$0.610.72x1h

StatTrak™ M4A4 | Zubastick (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeZODYARA🇺🇦$0.85$0.440.52x1h

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkgooooooooo200$0.85$3.834.51x3h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.02%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.85	92.02%	28
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.85	92.08%	28
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.85	92.01%	28
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.85	92.06%	28
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.85	92.08%	28
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.85	92.02%	28
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.85	92.07%	28
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.85	92.08%	28
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.85	92.02%	28
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.85	92.04%	28
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.85	92.01%	28
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.85	92.00%	28

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 1.9%violet 8.1%Classified 0.0%Legendary 0.0%restricted 5.4%mil spec 5.6%Industrial Grade 1.5%#8847ff 10.2%milspec 12.3%Rare 6.5%Mil Spec Grade 8.6%Uncommon 6.6%#4b69ff 25.6%blue 7.6%best hit —