Neon Dragon

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.20

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $2.02 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.98%

6,995 openings, odds method

Variance

1.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

73.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.95%±5.081,435 openings

7 days

92.95%±2.535,925 openings

30 days

92.98%±2.336,995 openings

since tracking started

92.98%±2.336,995 openings

85.0%90.8%96.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	1,435	90.95%±5.08	−0.4σ	odds
7d	5,925	92.95%±2.53	+0.7σ	odds
30d	6,995	92.98%±2.33	+0.8σ	odds
All	6,995	92.98%±2.33	+0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 6,995 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 322	$21.19	3.3%	4	21.8	0.18×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 490	$15.37	1.5%	20	14.3	1.40×
Dual Berettas \| Demolition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 971	$13.42	0.7%	28	7.2	3.89×
Five-SeveN \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 465	$11.50	1.2%	31	15.0	2.06×
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$11.35	5.0%	47	62.8	0.75×
AK-47 \| Crane Flight (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 177	$9.84	2.8%	39	39.6	0.99×
AWP \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 145	$7.83	2.7%	45	48.1	0.94×
AWP \| POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 111	$6.23	2.8%	61	63.2	0.97×
Music Kit \| Perfect World, Ay Heymusic kit · 7	1 in 108	$5.83	2.7%	76	64.7	1.17×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Factory New)weapon · uncommon	1 in 80	$5.58	3.5%	66	87.6	0.75×
AK-47 \| The Outsiders (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 101	$5.56	2.7%	67	69.5	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Control Panel (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 101	$5.56	2.7%	91	69.5	1.31×
Nova \| Sobek's Bite (Well-Worn)weapon	1 in 139	$5.16	1.8%	76	50.3	1.51×
Enforcer \| Phoenixagent · blue	1 in 79	$5.12	3.2%	94	88.9	1.06×
P250 \| Kintsugi (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 100	$4.53	2.2%	104	69.9	1.49×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 57	$3.83	3.3%	146	121.9	1.20×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 45	$3.82	4.2%	128	156.4	0.82×
CZ75-Auto \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 39	$3.27	4.2%	185	180.4	1.03×
AWP \| Duality (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 37	$3.25	4.3%	183	188.4	0.97×
MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 38	$2.75	3.6%	238	183.2	1.30×
Charm \| Lil' Monstercharm · uncommon	1 in 31	$2.50	4.0%	211	224.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Loudmouth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 30	$2.11	3.4%	241	229.8	1.05×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$2.10	4.5%	270	303.7	0.89×
AUG \| Eye of Zapems (Well-Worn)weapon · uncommon	1 in 25	$1.95	3.8%	278	278.7	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$1.85	3.9%	309	295.7	1.05×
Music Kit \| Juelz, Floorspacemusic kit	1 in 27	$1.63	3.0%	299	258.7	1.16×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.21	3.2%	284	369.3	0.77×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$1.18	3.3%	424	400.3	1.06×
Sticker \| Aces Highsticker · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.76	2.6%	476	486.1	0.98×
P2000 \| Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.67	2.6%	448	542.4	0.83×
Charm \| POP Artcharm · #8847ff	1 in 17	$0.64	1.9%	488	423.3	1.15×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cassette (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.62	2.2%	446	511.4	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Tilted (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 22	$0.53	1.2%	351	314.9	1.11×
M249 \| Downtown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 20	$0.42	1.0%	362	350.0	1.03×
Nova \| Army Sheen (Minimal Wear)weapon · gray	1 in 17	$0.36	1.0%	379	403.8	0.94×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/neon-dragon, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Music Kit | Juelz, Floorspacemusic kitFostiq$2.20$1.620.74x30m

SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blueIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$1.840.84x31m

Sticker | Aces Highsticker · #4b69ffIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$0.760.35x31m

StatTrak™ XM1014 | Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$1.160.53x32m

M249 | Downtown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$0.420.19x32m

Sticker | Aces Highsticker · #4b69ffIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$0.760.35x32m

Nova | Sobek's Bite (Well-Worn)weaponIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$5.092.31x33m

P2000 | Handgun (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$0.670.30x33m

SSG 08 | Spring Twilly (Field-Tested)weapon · blueIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$1.840.84x33m

AWP | POP AWP (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedIKEA | Bloodycase.com$2.20$6.242.84x33m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.20	92.07%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.20	92.08%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.20	92.04%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.20	92.09%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.20	92.03%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.20	92.09%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.20	92.09%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.20	92.07%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.20	92.00%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.20	92.10%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed7 0.9%classified 2.4%restricted 9.0%pink 5.9%uncommon 8.4%other 4.4%blue 8.1%#8847ff 7.8%#d32ee6 2.2%Mil Spec Grade 2.6%Restricted 3.3%milspec 11.7%violet 10.3%Mythical 5.7%#4b69ff 6.9%Uncommon 4.5%gray 5.8%best hit —