Night Dust

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$39.99

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $36.79 from 86 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.14%

1,254 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.6%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.79%±13.62171 openings

7 days

93.19%±5.371,097 openings

30 days

92.14%±5.021,254 openings

since tracking started

92.14%±5.021,254 openings

75.5%89.8%104.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	171	89.79%±13.6	−0.3σ	odds
7d	1,097	93.19%±5.37	+0.4σ	odds
30d	1,254	92.14%±5.02	+0.0σ	odds
All	1,254	92.14%±5.02	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values86 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,254 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 339	$256	2.1%	5	3.7	1.35×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 311	$227	2.0%	3	4.0	0.74×
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 313	$223	1.9%	1	4.0	0.25×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 364	$210	1.6%	4	3.4	1.16×
M4A1-S \| Cyrex (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 308	$203	1.8%	2	4.1	0.49×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 282	$146	1.4%	3	4.4	0.68×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 230	$144	1.7%	5	5.4	0.92×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 200	$130	1.8%	5	6.3	0.80×
M4A1-S \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 170	$128	2.0%	7	7.4	0.95×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Minimal Wear)weapon · red	1 in 329	$127	1.1%	3	3.8	0.79×
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 291	$122	1.1%	2	4.3	0.46×
AWP \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 426	$120	0.8%	4	2.9	1.36×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 380	$116	0.8%	2	3.3	0.61×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 310	$115	1.0%	2	4.1	0.49×
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 332	$115	0.9%	3	3.8	0.79×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 298	$108	1.0%	2	4.2	0.47×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 301	$103	0.9%	6	4.2	1.44×
M4A4 \| The Coalition (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 330	$103	0.8%	2	3.8	0.53×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 165	$101	1.7%	6	7.6	0.79×
AWP \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 224	$96.43	1.2%	8	5.6	1.43×
AK-47 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 229	$94.67	1.1%	10	5.5	1.83×
AWP \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 187	$89.16	1.3%	14	6.7	2.09×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$78.75	1.3%	3	7.9	0.38×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 188	$78.34	1.1%	3	6.7	0.45×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 139	$75.73	1.5%	16	9.0	1.77×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 149	$75.37	1.4%	11	8.4	1.30×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 318	$74.84	0.6%	6	3.9	1.52×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 272	$71.95	0.7%	7	4.6	1.52×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 332	$71.83	0.6%	0	3.8	0.00×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 281	$71.54	0.7%	7	4.5	1.57×
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 241	$70.75	0.8%	5	5.2	0.96×
AWP \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 308	$70.26	0.6%	2	4.1	0.49×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 253	$68.40	0.7%	4	5.0	0.81×
USP-S \| Kill Confirmed (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 212	$67.55	0.9%	7	5.9	1.19×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 186	$66.15	1.0%	10	6.7	1.48×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 156	$63.44	1.1%	12	8.0	1.50×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 148	$58.97	1.1%	6	8.5	0.71×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 129	$56.92	1.2%	9	9.7	0.93×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 118	$56.38	1.3%	12	10.7	1.12×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$54.51	1.2%	6	10.3	0.58×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 170	$51.81	0.8%	43	7.4	5.82×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 198	$51.72	0.7%	9	6.3	1.42×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 177	$51.08	0.8%	9	7.1	1.27×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 208	$50.44	0.7%	5	6.0	0.83×
AWP \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 395	$50.32	0.3%	2	3.2	0.63×
AK-47 \| Head Shot (Minimal Wear)weapon · Covert	1 in 323	$49.70	0.4%	5	3.9	1.29×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 333	$49.60	0.4%	3	3.8	0.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 360	$48.69	0.4%	2	3.5	0.57×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 299	$48.45	0.4%	8	4.2	1.90×
★ Broken Fang Gloves \| Yellow-banded (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 236	$48.07	0.6%	10	5.3	1.88×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 251	$47.52	0.5%	5	5.0	1.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 282	$47.03	0.5%	8	4.4	1.80×
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 241	$46.80	0.5%	8	5.2	1.54×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 221	$45.93	0.6%	7	5.7	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 204	$45.90	0.6%	11	6.1	1.79×
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 191	$45.51	0.6%	14	6.6	2.13×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 188	$43.53	0.6%	8	6.7	1.20×
★ Shadow Daggers \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 157	$43.27	0.8%	11	8.0	1.37×
AWP \| Crakow! (Minimal Wear)weapon · rare	1 in 111	$41.69	1.0%	7	11.3	0.62×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 106	$41.00	1.0%	9	11.8	0.76×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 122	$40.23	0.9%	14	10.3	1.36×
AWP \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 103	$39.69	1.0%	8	12.2	0.66×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 110	$39.34	1.0%	13	11.4	1.14×
AK-47 \| Inheritance (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 94	$37.91	1.1%	11	13.3	0.83×
USP-S \| Whiteout (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 90	$37.82	1.1%	13	13.9	0.94×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 78	$35.38	1.2%	26	16.1	1.61×
AK-47 \| Aquamarine Revenge (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 65	$34.43	1.4%	22	19.2	1.14×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 63	$34.04	1.5%	20	19.9	1.01×
★ Hydra Gloves \| Rattler (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 51	$32.91	1.8%	19	24.7	0.77×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 53	$31.45	1.6%	30	23.6	1.27×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 46	$26.83	1.6%	37	27.3	1.36×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Head Shot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 38	$26.20	1.9%	24	32.9	0.73×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 34	$25.44	2.0%	28	37.1	0.76×
AWP \| Crakow! (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 31	$24.74	2.2%	26	40.8	0.64×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 38	$19.81	1.4%	24	32.7	0.73×
AWP \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 33	$19.63	1.6%	33	37.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 28	$17.83	1.7%	55	44.1	1.25×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 24	$16.53	1.9%	32	52.0	0.62×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 35	$16.39	1.3%	35	35.7	0.98×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 28	$14.97	1.4%	33	44.1	0.75×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 29	$14.92	1.4%	44	42.8	1.03×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$14.35	1.4%	34	44.2	0.77×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 23	$13.87	1.6%	52	54.4	0.96×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 22	$13.42	1.7%	58	57.4	1.01×
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 17	$12.64	2.0%	54	72.2	0.75×
AWP \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 14	$11.56	2.2%	100	87.0	1.15×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/night-dust, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A1-S | Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedCutăre$cu$39.99$13.330.33x13m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6BABAYKA$39.99$14.870.37x59m

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified༺ 𝒮𝒽𝒶𝒹ℴ𝓌 ༻$39.99$13.900.35x1h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkB0RAT$39.99$14.380.36x1h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkGustavoIsBack$39.99$14.380.36x1h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covertno4ort$39.99$66.231.66x2h

M4A1-S | Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedШуврентий Палыч$39.99$13.900.35x2h

★ Shadow Daggers | Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · goldШуврентий Палыч$39.99$43.181.08x2h

★ Hydra Gloves | Rattler (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryШуврентий Палыч$39.99$33.940.85x2h

AWP | Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · classifiedStuntCoordinator$39.99$11.560.29x5h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$39.99	92.10%	86
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$39.99	92.03%	86
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$39.99	91.95%	86
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$39.99	91.92%	86
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$39.99	92.04%	86
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$39.99	92.02%	86
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$39.99	92.02%	86
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$39.99	92.07%	86
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$39.99	92.07%	86
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$39.99	91.95%	86
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$39.99	92.08%	86
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$39.99	92.03%	86
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$39.99	92.08%	86
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$39.99	92.01%	86
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$39.99	92.00%	86
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$39.99	92.06%	86

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 27.6%red 2.4%classified 37.0%covert knife 0.3%Ancient 1.3%sunny 0.5%extraordinary 5.0%Covert 0.3%gold 1.2%rare 0.9%Legendary 10.7%#eb4b4b 2.6%pink 6.8%#d32ee6 3.4%best hit —