Nostalgia

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$1.60

Advertised RTP

89.39%

EV $1.43 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.10%

695 openings, odds method

Variance

0.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

25.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

71.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

90.52%±12.25200 openings

7 days

86.65%±6.29649 openings

30 days

87.10%±6.08695 openings

since tracking started

87.10%±6.08695 openings

77.5%90.5%103.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	200	90.52%±12.2	+0.2σ	odds
7d	649	86.65%±6.29	−0.5σ	odds
30d	695	87.10%±6.08	−0.4σ	odds
All	695	87.10%±6.08	−0.4σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds summed to 0.9901, rescaled · observed counts over 695 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 6,667	$23.21	0.2%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 585	$15.61	1.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,961	$8.31	0.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 152	$7.75	3.6%	5	4.6	1.08×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 158	$7.12	3.2%	4	4.5	0.90×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 108	$4.66	3.1%	6	6.5	0.92×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$4.52	4.1%	8	9.0	0.89×
P90 \| Nostalgia (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$4.24	4.3%	9	10.1	0.89×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$3.32	4.6%	7	13.7	0.51×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 57	$3.03	3.8%	11	12.3	0.89×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 68	$3.01	3.1%	20	10.3	1.94×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 41	$2.59	4.4%	17	17.0	1.00×
SSG 08 \| Parallax (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 50	$2.45	3.4%	15	13.9	1.08×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Factory New)weapon · Restricted	1 in 41	$2.05	3.5%	23	16.9	1.36×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 37	$1.71	3.2%	17	18.9	0.90×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$1.70	3.0%	12	17.6	0.68×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 36	$1.63	3.2%	14	19.6	0.71×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 41	$1.60	2.8%	11	17.3	0.64×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 75	$1.46	1.4%	12	9.4	1.27×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 60	$1.44	1.7%	17	11.6	1.46×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$1.42	2.0%	17	14.3	1.19×
SSG 08 \| Ghost Crusader (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 49	$1.40	2.0%	12	14.3	0.84×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$1.38	2.3%	18	16.7	1.08×
Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$1.30	2.1%	15	16.4	0.91×
MP9 \| Ruby Poison Dart (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 40	$1.22	2.2%	24	17.6	1.36×
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 31	$1.10	2.5%	21	22.6	0.93×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Rocket Pop (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$1.10	2.7%	27	24.6	1.10×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$1.02	3.1%	31	30.2	1.03×
M4A4 \| Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 22	$0.90	2.9%	35	32.3	1.08×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$0.78	2.6%	38	33.3	1.14×
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$0.70	3.1%	40	44.3	0.90×
USP-S \| Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 13	$0.68	3.6%	61	52.4	1.16×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 14	$0.68	3.3%	47	48.5	0.97×
M4A4 \| Converter (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 13	$0.63	3.5%	50	55.4	0.90×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$0.54	3.1%	51	57.1	0.89×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/nostalgia, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SG 553 | Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violetFiNiK$1.60$1.090.68x5h

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecStakh$1.60$1.010.63x7h

StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecStakh$1.60$2.601.63x7h

USP-S | Ticket to Hell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedStakh$1.60$0.680.43x7h

M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specStakh$1.60$0.900.56x7h

SG 553 | Darkwing (Field-Tested)weapon · MythicalStakh$1.60$0.680.43x7h

M4A4 | Converter (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specKupātss$1.60$0.900.56x9h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Elite 1.6 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecKupātss$1.60$0.680.43x9h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Dualing Dragons (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKupātss$1.60$0.540.34x9h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.39%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$1.60	89.39%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$1.60	88.37%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$1.60	89.27%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$1.60	88.89%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$1.60	87.49%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$1.60	89.32%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$1.60	86.77%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$1.60	86.89%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$1.60	90.06%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$1.60	88.27%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$1.60	88.91%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$1.60	88.27%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$1.60	88.16%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$1.60	85.14%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$1.60	87.92%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$1.60	89.68%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$1.60	88.26%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$1.60	88.47%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$1.60	87.20%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$1.60	87.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$1.60	88.46%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$1.60	87.08%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$1.60	89.08%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$1.60	84.80%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$1.60	89.27%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$1.60	88.21%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$1.60	88.71%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$1.60	90.69%	35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$1.60	87.40%	35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$1.60	89.18%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedpink 0.0%#8847ff 6.4%restricted 15.2%Mythical 7.0%classified 3.0%milspec 27.4%violet 13.0%Restricted 2.4%Mil Spec Grade 2.7%mil spec 7.1%Mil Spec 6.9%Rare 7.9%best hit —