Collection 2016

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $3.91 from 66 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.29%

808 openings, odds method

Variance

8.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.7%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

86.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

70 openings · below min

7 days

91.20%±22.47713 openings

30 days

92.29%±21.09808 openings

since tracking started

92.29%±21.09808 openings

68.0%165.3%262.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	70	189.41%±72.6	—	odds
7d	713	91.20%±22.5	−0.1σ	odds
30d	808	92.29%±21.1	+0.0σ	odds
All	808	92.29%±21.1	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values66 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 808 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,667	$566	2.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,250	$297	1.2%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$256	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$239	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$236	1.0%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$227	0.9%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$223	1.0%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Dragonfire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$218	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$206	0.5%	1	0.1	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,556	$169	0.8%	0	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$155	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$146	0.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$137	0.7%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Case Hardened (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$136	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$127	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$125	0.6%	0	0.1	—
M4A1-S \| Chantico's Fire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$124	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$124	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 5,000	$122	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Specialist Gloves \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,556	$121	0.6%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$120	0.4%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Wasteland Rebel (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$118	0.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Revolution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$117	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$111	0.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$98.58	0.3%	2	0.1	—
★ Moto Gloves \| Eclipse (Battle-Scarred)gloves · gold	1 in 7,143	$97.16	0.3%	1	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 8,333	$29.11	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Wasteland Princess (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$27.89	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,556	$19.44	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$16.10	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$14.88	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$14.40	0.1%	1	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 5,882	$14.33	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$14.17	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 7,692	$13.80	0.0%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$13.64	0.1%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Desolate Space (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$13.23	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$12.97	0.1%	3	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 5,263	$12.94	0.1%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 426	$12.71	0.8%	0	1.9	0.00×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 166	$12.70	2.0%	0	4.9	0.00×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$12.48	2.6%	2	6.6	0.30×
P250 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 426	$12.23	0.7%	3	1.9	1.58×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 156	$12.15	2.0%	6	5.2	1.16×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Valence (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 170	$12.01	1.8%	6	4.8	1.26×
Tec-9 \| Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 143	$11.97	2.1%	15	5.6	2.66×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Primal Saber (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 59	$11.27	4.9%	14	13.6	1.03×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$11.10	5.2%	20	14.9	1.35×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 45	$9.92	5.6%	23	17.8	1.29×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 28	$5.70	5.2%	30	28.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$3.89	4.4%	25	36.1	0.69×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 18	$3.57	5.2%	36	46.0	0.78×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$3.49	6.7%	57	60.5	0.94×
FAMAS \| Valence (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$3.45	4.7%	25	43.0	0.58×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$3.44	2.7%	39	24.5	1.59×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 35	$2.94	2.1%	35	22.8	1.54×
FAMAS \| Valence (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 25	$2.93	3.0%	26	32.4	0.80×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 22	$2.32	2.8%	28	37.6	0.75×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 17	$1.90	2.8%	28	46.2	0.61×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 19	$1.77	2.4%	51	43.0	1.19×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$1.75	2.9%	40	51.6	0.78×
P90 \| Chopper (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 17	$1.66	2.4%	54	46.4	1.16×
P90 \| Chopper (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 20	$1.37	1.7%	52	39.8	1.31×
P90 \| Chopper (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 19	$1.33	1.8%	44	42.4	1.04×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 14	$0.84	1.5%	64	56.5	1.13×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 12	$0.82	1.8%	76	68.7	1.11×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2016, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

M4A4 | Buzz Kill (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covertSavage$4.25$20548.30x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeSavage$4.25$0.820.19x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil SpecSavage$4.25$1.900.45x1h

USP-S | Cyrex (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$3.540.83x1h

StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Royal Consorts (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalSavage$4.25$2.300.54x1h

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Necropos (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeSavage$4.25$0.820.19x1h

USP-S | Cyrex (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffSavage$4.25$3.480.82x1h

Nova | Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedSavage$4.25$11.152.62x1h

StatTrak™ P90 | Chopper (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$1.760.41x1h

Tec-9 | Fuel Injector (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedSavage$4.25$11.932.81x1h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	66
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	66
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	66
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	66
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	66
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	66
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	66
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	66
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	66
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	66
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	66
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	66
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	66
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	66
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	66
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	66
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	66
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	66
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	66
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	66

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 0.1%covert 0.2%covert knife 0.0%red 0.1%gold 0.0%classified 6.9%Restricted 0.6%pink 0.0%Legendary 0.0%Mil Spec Grade 10.7%#8847ff 25.2%restricted 36.0%#4b69ff 9.8%Mythical 4.6%Mil Spec 5.7%best hit —