Collection 2017

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $3.91 from 67 items

Observed RTP, 30d

99.67%

932 openings, odds method

Variance

11.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.5%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

78.3%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

98 openings · below min

7 days

104.38%±23.06831 openings

30 days

99.67%±21.85932 openings

since tracking started

99.67%±21.85932 openings

5.0%73.5%142.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	98	73.29%±67.9	—	odds
7d	831	104.38%±23.1	+1.0σ	odds
30d	932	99.67%±21.9	+0.7σ	odds
All	932	99.67%±21.9	+0.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values67 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 932 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,333	$629	1.9%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$515	2.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Leather (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 6,250	$314	1.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$309	1.3%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$261	1.2%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$234	1.1%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$224	0.9%	1	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$182	0.8%	0	0.2	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$144	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$136	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$122	0.6%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$120	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$119	0.4%	1	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$117	0.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$117	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$116	0.3%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$115	0.5%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$115	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$114	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$114	0.5%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$114	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$111	0.6%	0	0.2	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$108	0.5%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 7,692	$105	0.4%	1	0.1	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 8,333	$101	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Huntsman Knife \| Damascus Steel (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 6,250	$89.24	0.4%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$87.76	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Bloodhound Gloves \| Snakebite (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$85.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Hellfire (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$83.15	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Tiger Tooth (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$76.00	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$31.23	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,263	$28.26	0.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Orbit Mk01 (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 8,333	$27.26	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 5,000	$20.45	0.1%	0	0.2	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 6,250	$20.33	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SSG 08 \| Death's Head (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,692	$20.22	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 7,143	$19.81	0.1%	0	0.1	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 5,882	$19.68	0.1%	0	0.2	—
P250 \| Red Rock (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 8,333	$15.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$14.61	0.1%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$14.52	0.0%	1	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$14.13	0.1%	4	0.1	—
AWP \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 210	$14.02	1.7%	2	4.4	0.45×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$13.74	3.2%	3	8.4	0.36×
CZ75-Auto \| Xiangliu (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 568	$13.25	0.6%	7	1.6	4.27×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 98	$11.45	3.0%	6	9.5	0.63×
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 65	$11.03	4.3%	18	14.3	1.26×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 54	$10.92	5.2%	9	17.4	0.52×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$8.73	5.2%	19	21.7	0.88×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$6.15	4.7%	37	27.8	1.33×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$4.52	5.3%	42	42.7	0.98×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$4.42	5.8%	57	48.1	1.19×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 15	$4.08	6.9%	51	61.5	0.83×
UMP-45 \| Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 21	$3.80	4.7%	29	44.9	0.65×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 23	$2.97	3.3%	53	41.0	1.29×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 21	$2.47	3.0%	36	44.4	0.81×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$2.35	3.4%	60	53.2	1.13×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 20	$2.19	2.8%	54	46.6	1.16×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$1.58	2.1%	44	49.3	0.89×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 22	$1.55	1.8%	52	42.9	1.21×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 19	$1.46	2.0%	50	49.1	1.02×
XM1014 \| Seasons (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$1.46	1.8%	26	43.8	0.59×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 20	$1.45	1.9%	52	47.0	1.11×
UMP-45 \| Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.41	1.5%	33	39.2	0.84×
Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 23	$1.08	1.2%	41	41.3	0.99×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$0.96	1.5%	64	57.1	1.12×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.82	1.5%	77	68.7	1.12×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2017, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Hand Wraps | Leather (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryNOT ASL$4.25$683160.6x3d

Five-SeveN | Hyper Beast (Well-Worn)weapon · covertДжоник меньший$4.25$23455.11x1d

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSavage$4.25$1.460.34x38m

Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$1.110.26x38m

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffSavage$4.25$3.790.89x38m

Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$1.110.26x38m

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSavage$4.25$1.460.34x38m

UMP-45 | Metal Flowers (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffSavage$4.25$3.790.89x38m

XM1014 | Seasons (Field-Tested)weapon · violetSavage$4.25$1.460.34x38m

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Scaffold (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalSavage$4.25$2.960.70x38m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$2.470.58x38m

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Oxide Blaze (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil specSavage$4.25$0.820.19x38m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	67
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	67
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	67
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	67
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	67
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	67
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.03%	67
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	67
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	67
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	67
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	67
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	67
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	67
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	67
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	67
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	67
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.02%	67

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 6.6%3 5.0%extraordinary 0.1%covert 0.3%classified 1.5%covert knife 0.0%restricted 20.5%violet 5.3%#8847ff 0.0%Legendary 0.2%#d32ee6 2.6%Classified 1.9%#4b69ff 7.8%mil spec 27.0%Mythical 15.1%milspec 6.1%best hit $683 (160.6x)