Collection 2018

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.10%

EV $3.91 from 69 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.41%

653 openings, odds method

Variance

2.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

89.00%±22.46157 openings

7 days

82.26%±12.22527 openings

30 days

87.41%±10.98653 openings

since tracking started

87.41%±10.98653 openings

66.0%89.0%112.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	157	89.00%±22.5	−0.3σ	odds
7d	527	82.26%±12.2	−1.6σ	odds
30d	653	87.41%±11.0	−0.8σ	odds
All	653	87.41%±11.0	−0.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values69 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 653 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 8,333	$158	0.5%	0	0.1	—
★ Stiletto Knife \| Forest DDPAT (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$144	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$99.07	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$92.48	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Navaja Knife \| Slaughter (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 9,091	$89.04	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$85.96	0.4%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$80.73	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Sport Gloves \| Bronze Morph (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,000	$78.05	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Field-Tested)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,556	$75.63	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Ursus Knife \| Urban Masked (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert knife	1 in 10,000	$69.22	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$68.29	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,692	$58.97	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$56.92	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$51.81	0.3%	3	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$51.45	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$48.69	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$48.45	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$47.52	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$47.03	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Neon Rider (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$46.80	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$46.54	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Code Red (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$45.90	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 510	$45.80	2.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
AK-47 \| Asiimov (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$44.45	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$37.98	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MP7 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$35.44	0.1%	3	0.1	—
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 262	$34.45	3.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
M4A4 \| Neo-Noir (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 990	$33.29	0.9%	3	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 138	$31.45	5.8%	1	4.7	0.21×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 109	$12.96	3.0%	5	6.0	0.83×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 93	$10.61	2.9%	5	7.0	0.71×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 69	$10.06	3.7%	12	9.5	1.26×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 57	$9.42	4.2%	11	11.5	0.96×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 77	$9.28	3.1%	8	8.5	0.94×
USP-S \| Cortex (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 84	$7.45	2.3%	10	7.8	1.29×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 79	$7.25	2.3%	11	8.2	1.34×
M4A1-S \| Nightmare (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 85	$7.12	2.1%	7	7.7	0.91×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$6.97	2.5%	15	9.0	1.66×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 74	$6.43	2.2%	11	8.9	1.24×
StatTrak™ AWP \| PAW (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 101	$5.94	1.5%	12	6.5	1.85×
Desert Eagle \| Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 59	$5.81	2.5%	13	11.0	1.18×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 62	$5.77	2.4%	12	10.5	1.14×
FAMAS \| Eye of Athena (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 70	$5.65	2.1%	7	9.4	0.75×
USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$5.11	2.0%	13	10.0	1.29×
MP5-SD \| Phosphor (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 61	$4.98	2.1%	8	10.8	0.74×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$4.60	2.0%	16	11.4	1.41×
MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$3.85	2.5%	22	16.9	1.30×
USP-S \| Cortex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 41	$3.72	2.3%	16	16.1	0.99×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 34	$3.68	2.8%	13	19.2	0.68×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · violet	1 in 37	$3.36	2.3%	13	17.8	0.73×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$3.31	1.5%	14	11.5	1.22×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 44	$3.05	1.8%	18	14.8	1.22×
P250 \| Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.69	2.1%	14	19.7	0.71×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 36	$2.41	1.7%	19	18.3	1.04×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$2.37	2.0%	22	21.3	1.03×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| SWAG-7 (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 31	$2.37	1.9%	27	20.8	1.30×
AWP \| PAW (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 31	$2.21	1.8%	12	21.1	0.57×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Nevermore (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.97	1.2%	22	16.0	1.37×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.92	1.3%	16	17.3	0.93×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.90	1.5%	16	20.6	0.78×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 33	$1.65	1.3%	21	20.1	1.05×
Glock-18 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 34	$1.55	1.2%	14	19.0	0.74×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$1.37	1.2%	21	21.8	0.96×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Flashback (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.30	1.4%	28	27.3	1.03×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 25	$1.24	1.3%	28	26.0	1.08×
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 24	$1.21	1.3%	15	26.9	0.56×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$1.20	1.3%	28	27.2	1.03×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$1.18	1.4%	34	30.6	1.11×
UMP-45 \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$0.84	1.2%	34	37.5	0.91×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2018, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$2.410.57x4h

AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$2.370.56x4h

UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$0.840.20x4h

StatTrak™ USP-S | Cortex (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$9.432.22x4h

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$6.981.64x4h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$1.370.32x4h

P250 | Nevermore (Factory New)weapon · restricted𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$2.690.63x4h

XM1014 | Ziggy (Well-Worn)weapon · violet𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$1.240.29x4h

MP5-SD | Phosphor (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$6.431.51x4h

Desert Eagle | Mecha Industries (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified𝕻𝖎𝖓𝖐 𝕬𝖐𝖚$4.25$5.811.37x4h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.10%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	69
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.03%	69
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	69
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.02%	69
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	69
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	69
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	69
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	69
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.05%	69
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	69
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	69
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	69
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	69
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	69

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert knife 0.1%covert 0.5%extraordinary 0.0%Ancient 0.4%classified 14.4%Legendary 4.1%#8847ff 1.3%pink 1.3%restricted 35.9%Mythical 22.2%Restricted 8.9%violet 10.8%best hit —