Collection 2021

A case on GGDROP (annual-collections), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.25

Advertised RTP

92.07%

EV $3.91 from 68 items

Observed RTP, 30d

91.55%

877 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

96.56%±24.92104 openings

7 days

91.64%±9.86702 openings

30 days

91.55%±8.80877 openings

since tracking started

91.55%±8.80877 openings

71.0%96.5%122.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	104	96.56%±24.9	+0.4σ	odds
7d	702	91.64%±9.86	−0.1σ	odds
30d	877	91.55%±8.80	−0.1σ	odds
All	877	91.55%±8.80	−0.1σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values68 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 877 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,333	$175	0.5%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$107	0.4%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Battle-Scarred)knife · gold	1 in 7,143	$89.73	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 5,556	$89.42	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Falchion Knife \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 10,000	$83.64	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$82.35	0.4%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$79.30	0.4%	0	0.2	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 9,091	$72.37	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$71.54	0.3%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Ocean Drive (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$70.75	0.3%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Minimal Wear)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,692	$70.14	0.2%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Leet Museo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 7,143	$68.18	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Driver Gloves \| Rezan the Red (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 7,143	$61.39	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Well-Worn)knife · covert knife	1 in 5,000	$57.89	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Well-Worn)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$57.19	0.3%	0	0.2	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Black Laminate (Field-Tested)knife · gold	1 in 5,000	$56.68	0.3%	2	0.2	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Minimal Wear)knife · sunny	1 in 5,556	$55.61	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$55.54	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Freehand (Field-Tested)knife · sunny	1 in 5,556	$51.72	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$45.75	0.2%	0	0.1	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 5,556	$43.55	0.2%	0	0.2	—
★ Hand Wraps \| Desert Shamagh (Battle-Scarred)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 10,000	$43.15	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Minimal Wear)weapon · Ancient	1 in 7,692	$42.97	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 5,263	$37.65	0.2%	0	0.2	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$37.45	0.1%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 6,667	$35.30	0.1%	0	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 6,667	$35.09	0.1%	1	0.1	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$33.71	0.2%	1	0.2	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 1,754	$31.62	0.5%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,515	$20.61	0.3%	1	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 599	$18.66	0.8%	3	1.5	2.05×
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 250	$18.16	1.9%	4	3.5	1.14×
Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 124	$17.97	3.7%	2	7.1	0.28×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 240	$17.80	1.9%	5	3.7	1.37×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Snack Attack (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 152	$17.39	2.9%	3	5.8	0.52×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Exoskeleton (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 137	$16.33	3.0%	9	6.4	1.41×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$12.67	3.3%	10	8.8	1.13×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 62	$8.59	3.5%	14	14.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 56	$8.36	3.8%	27	15.7	1.72×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 36	$8.31	5.8%	18	24.0	0.75×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 40	$6.50	4.1%	19	21.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 55	$5.92	2.7%	15	15.8	0.95×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 52	$5.37	2.7%	21	17.0	1.24×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$5.34	3.0%	17	19.3	0.88×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 50	$4.75	2.4%	10	17.6	0.57×
AWP \| Exoskeleton (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$4.71	2.0%	20	14.4	1.39×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$4.59	1.5%	17	11.0	1.54×
AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$4.11	1.9%	15	16.1	0.93×
AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$4.02	1.2%	9	10.6	0.85×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 65	$3.90	1.5%	8	13.5	0.59×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 48	$3.84	2.0%	13	18.3	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$3.79	1.0%	21	9.1	2.30×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 123	$3.75	0.8%	18	7.1	2.52×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 63	$3.68	1.5%	12	13.8	0.87×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 53	$3.65	1.7%	17	16.4	1.03×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$3.47	1.4%	10	14.0	0.71×
Five-SeveN \| Boost Protocol (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 48	$3.36	1.8%	16	18.2	0.88×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$3.29	1.7%	22	18.1	1.22×
MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 37	$3.06	2.1%	17	24.0	0.71×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 36	$3.03	2.2%	33	24.4	1.35×
FAMAS \| ZX Spectron (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 35	$3.01	2.2%	31	24.9	1.25×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 25	$2.89	3.0%	28	35.3	0.79×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 24	$2.78	2.9%	35	36.1	0.97×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.61	3.2%	45	42.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 16	$1.86	3.0%	48	55.3	0.87×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 13	$1.60	3.2%	65	68.9	0.94×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	10.2%	$0.81	2.1%	95	89.3	1.06×
USP-S \| Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blue	12.4%	$0.76	2.4%	99	108.4	0.91×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/сollection2021, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blueSavage$4.25$0.810.19x1h

Five-SeveN | Boost Protocol (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$5.321.25x1h

USP-S | Black Lotus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · blueSavage$4.25$0.760.18x1h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSavage$4.25$2.600.61x1h

USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blueSavage$4.25$0.810.19x1h

MP9 | Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pinkPrakint12$4.25$3.700.87x3h

StatTrak™ MAG-7 | BI83 Spectrum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedAristocrat$4.25$3.860.91x10h

USP-S | Black Lotus (Well-Worn)weapon · blueAristocrat$4.25$0.810.19x10h

StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Button Masher (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedAristocrat$4.25$1.600.38x10h

SSG 08 | Turbo Peek (Well-Worn)weapon · pinkAristocrat$4.25$17.934.22x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.25	92.07%	68
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	68
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.25	92.04%	68
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	68
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.25	92.02%	68
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.25	92.09%	68
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	68
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	68
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.25	92.10%	68
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	68
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	68
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.25	92.08%	68
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.25	92.01%	68
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.25	92.06%	68
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.25	92.00%	68

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.0%classified 2.6%gold 0.1%covert 0.1%extraordinary 0.1%red 0.1%covert knife 0.0%sunny 0.0%Extraordinary 0.0%Restricted 11.6%#d32ee6 2.7%restricted 22.8%pink 6.1%milspec 8.1%mil spec 2.7%violet 1.6%Mythical 1.3%Legendary 0.8%#8847ff 8.5%Mil Spec Grade 4.0%blue 26.7%best hit —