Palash

A case on GGDROP (partners), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$130.14

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $119.73 from 42 items

Observed RTP, 30d

92.04%

273 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.8%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

95.95%±12.06211 openings

7 days

94.00%±11.19246 openings

30 days

92.04%±10.64273 openings

since tracking started

92.04%±10.64273 openings

80.5%94.5%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	211	95.95%±12.1	+0.7σ	odds
7d	246	94.00%±11.2	+0.4σ	odds
30d	273	92.04%±10.6	+0.0σ	odds
All	273	92.04%±10.6	+0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values42 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 273 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 117	$630	4.5%	3	2.3	1.29×
★ Sport Gloves \| Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 116	$619	4.5%	1	2.4	0.42×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 120	$515	3.6%	3	2.3	1.32×
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 94	$416	3.7%	4	2.9	1.38×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 117	$397	2.8%	1	2.3	0.43×
G3SG1 \| Chronos (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 82	$368	3.7%	3	3.3	0.91×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 85	$366	3.6%	1	3.2	0.31×
AWP \| Oni Taiji (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 102	$309	2.5%	1	2.7	0.37×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 90	$297	2.8%	4	3.0	1.31×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 84	$291	2.9%	3	3.3	0.92×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 63	$272	3.6%	4	4.3	0.92×
★ Stiletto Knife \| Crimson Web (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 70	$258	3.1%	5	3.9	1.29×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 57	$225	3.3%	6	4.8	1.26×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Factory New)knife · covert	1 in 54	$211	3.3%	7	5.1	1.37×
★ Classic Knife \| Slaughter (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 48	$197	3.4%	7	5.7	1.24×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 41	$163	3.3%	5	6.6	0.75×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 42	$141	2.8%	10	6.5	1.53×
Galil AR \| Sugar Rush (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$133	3.0%	9	7.5	1.20×
★ Specialist Gloves \| Fade (Battle-Scarred)gloves · extraordinary	1 in 35	$132	3.1%	11	7.7	1.42×
AK-47 \| Bloodsport (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 43	$129	2.5%	6	6.4	0.94×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Orion (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 57	$126	1.9%	6	4.8	1.25×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$115	1.7%	8	4.7	1.71×
SSG 08 \| Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 57	$103	1.5%	6	4.8	1.25×
USP-S \| Printstream (Factory New)weapon · red	1 in 43	$101	1.9%	3	6.3	0.47×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 38	$99.38	2.2%	6	7.2	0.83×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 39	$97.85	2.1%	4	7.1	0.56×
P90 \| Death by Kitty (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 51	$87.71	1.4%	4	5.3	0.75×
UMP-45 \| Crime Scene (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$83.51	1.7%	4	6.7	0.60×
USP-S \| Orion (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 37	$82.77	1.9%	8	7.5	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Golden Coil (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 26	$58.59	1.9%	12	10.5	1.14×
M4A4 \| Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 29	$54.85	1.6%	8	9.6	0.84×
SG 553 \| Integrale (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 25	$51.75	1.7%	9	11.0	0.82×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 21	$50.38	2.0%	19	13.1	1.45×
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 40	$48.97	1.0%	5	6.9	0.73×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 40	$45.48	1.0%	11	6.9	1.60×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 42	$43.64	0.9%	10	6.4	1.55×
Desert Eagle \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · Covert	1 in 32	$41.01	1.1%	6	8.5	0.70×
USP-S \| Printstream (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 28	$40.31	1.2%	7	9.9	0.71×
FAMAS \| Waters of Nephthys (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 28	$38.92	1.1%	7	9.6	0.73×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 22	$36.16	1.4%	12	12.3	0.97×
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Temukau (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 23	$35.89	1.3%	12	12.1	0.99×
Nova \| Hyper Beast (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 17	$29.48	1.4%	12	15.7	0.77×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/palash, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Field-Tested)gloves · extraordinaryMiler$130$6354.88x7h

★ Sport Gloves | Nocts (Well-Worn)gloves · extraordinaryMiler$130$6204.76x7h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Waters of Nephthys (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkL4he$T$130$43.370.33x11m

M4A4 | Temukau (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMiler$130$55.080.42x7h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covertMiler$130$50.560.39x7h

StatTrak™ Nova | Hyper Beast (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiedMiler$130$44.880.34x7h

USP-S | Printstream (Factory New)weapon · redMiler$130$1010.77x7h

SSG 08 | Blood in the Water (Field-Tested)weapon · covertMiler$130$1040.80x7h

AK-47 | Bloodsport (Minimal Wear)weapon · covertMiler$130$1421.09x7h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Printstream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · CovertMiler$130$98.990.76x7h

G3SG1 | Chronos (Well-Worn)weapon · RestrictedMiler$130$3682.83x7h

AWP | Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covertMiler$130$50.560.39x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$130	91.92%	42
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$130	91.98%	42
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$130	91.96%	42
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$130	91.92%	42
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$130	91.92%	42
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$130	91.91%	42
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$130	91.92%	42
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$130	91.94%	42
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$130	91.94%	42
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$130	91.96%	42
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$130	91.95%	42
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$130	92.00%	42
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$130	92.00%	42

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedextraordinary 7.0%covert 44.8%restricted 0.9%Restricted 1.2%Ancient 1.2%Covert 6.9%classified 23.0%#d32ee6 1.8%#8847ff 1.7%red 2.3%violet 2.4%pink 2.4%Classified 4.5%best hit $635 (4.88x)