Operation Phoenix Weapon Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.40

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $2.21 from 96 items

Observed RTP, 30d

170.32%

135 openings, odds method

Variance

3.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

66.7%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

10 openings · below min

7 days

176.65%±33.07128 openings

30 days

170.32%±32.18135 openings

since tracking started

170.32%±32.18135 openings

91.5%386.0%680.5%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (138.14% – 202.49%, 135 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	10	562.04%±117.7	—	odds
7d	128	176.65%±33.1	+5.0σ	odds
30d	135	170.32%±32.2	+4.8σ	odds
All	135	170.32%±32.2	+4.8σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values96 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 135 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$130	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$125	0.6%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$101	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$99.97	0.8%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 5,882	$89.79	0.7%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$89.18	0.8%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.64	0.8%	1	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$86.08	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Chameleon (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 10,000	$83.68	0.4%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Chameleon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$80.57	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$71.63	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,263	$59.37	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$41.39	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$30.16	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 6,250	$29.88	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,556	$27.75	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$27.13	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Redline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$26.86	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$20.87	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 5,263	$20.67	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 5,000	$18.19	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$17.83	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,111	$16.88	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$16.53	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$16.39	0.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 5,882	$15.64	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,692	$14.22	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 7,143	$12.77	0.1%	0	0.0	—
P90 \| Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 10,000	$12.64	0.1%	0	0.0	—
Nova \| Antique (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 455	$12.50	1.2%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Trigon (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 463	$12.32	1.2%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Antique (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 2,778	$11.88	0.2%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Heat (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 2,564	$11.79	0.2%	0	0.1	—
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 524	$11.02	1.0%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Antique (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 394	$10.78	1.2%	0	0.3	—
P90 \| Trigon (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 243	$10.20	1.9%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 193	$10.06	2.4%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 195	$7.10	1.6%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 139	$6.87	2.2%	1	1.0	—
USP-S \| Guardian (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 179	$6.61	1.7%	1	0.8	—
SG 553 \| Pulse (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 105	$6.37	2.7%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 154	$5.96	1.7%	3	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Heat (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 108	$5.54	2.3%	0	1.3	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 132	$5.25	1.8%	1	1.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 122	$5.12	1.9%	2	1.1	1.81×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 94	$4.57	2.2%	1	1.4	0.70×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 110	$4.40	1.8%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 132	$4.35	1.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 82	$4.23	2.3%	1	1.7	0.61×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 108	$4.19	1.8%	2	1.3	1.60×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 106	$4.18	1.8%	1	1.3	0.78×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 107	$3.50	1.5%	0	1.3	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 86	$3.29	1.7%	1	1.6	0.64×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 83	$3.22	1.7%	2	1.6	1.24×
USP-S \| Guardian (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 57	$3.07	2.4%	1	2.4	0.42×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 108	$3.03	1.3%	3	1.2	2.41×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$2.96	1.3%	7	1.4	5.17×
USP-S \| Guardian (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 100	$2.93	1.3%	0	1.4	0.00×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 76	$2.83	1.7%	2	1.8	1.12×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$2.81	1.8%	3	1.9	1.56×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Well-Worn)weapon · Restricted	1 in 73	$2.75	1.7%	1	1.8	0.54×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 66	$2.71	1.9%	2	2.1	0.97×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$2.67	1.9%	2	2.1	0.95×
MAC-10 \| Heat (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$2.67	1.9%	2	2.1	0.94×
SG 553 \| Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Restricted	1 in 42	$2.54	2.8%	6	3.2	1.85×
FAMAS \| Sergeant (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 43	$2.20	2.3%	6	3.2	1.90×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Factory New)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 32	$1.59	2.2%	3	4.2	0.72×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 23	$1.45	2.9%	10	5.9	1.70×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 19	$1.31	3.1%	5	7.0	0.71×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 19	$1.11	2.7%	7	7.3	0.96×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 29	$1.07	1.7%	7	4.6	1.52×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 32	$1.06	1.5%	3	4.2	0.72×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 34	$0.92	1.2%	6	4.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 48	$0.85	0.8%	4	2.8	1.41×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 44	$0.78	0.8%	2	3.1	0.65×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$0.76	0.9%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 43	$0.70	0.7%	4	3.1	1.28×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 64	$0.68	0.5%	1	2.1	0.48×
Negev \| Terrain (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.63	0.4%	0	2.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$0.62	0.4%	0	1.9	0.00×
StatTrak™ Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 86	$0.59	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 95	$0.59	0.3%	7	1.4	4.91×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 78	$0.58	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 109	$0.57	0.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 101	$0.55	0.2%	3	1.3	2.24×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 93	$0.54	0.3%	3	1.4	2.07×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$0.53	0.3%	0	1.6	0.00×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 80	$0.51	0.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 66	$0.50	0.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
Negev \| Terrain (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 71	$0.50	0.3%	2	1.9	1.05×
MAG-7 \| Heaven Guard (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 68	$0.49	0.3%	2	2.0	1.01×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 59	$0.47	0.4%	3	2.3	1.31×
Negev \| Terrain (Well-Worn)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 53	$0.47	0.4%	0	2.5	0.00×
Tec-9 \| Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 56	$0.47	0.4%	1	2.4	0.41×
Negev \| Terrain (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 53	$0.44	0.4%	3	2.6	1.17×
UMP-45 \| Corporal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 41	$0.42	0.5%	2	3.3	0.61×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/phoenix, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertWorek$2.40$12652.30x13h

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Negev | Terrain (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ffДРЕЛЬ$2.40$0.450.19x1h

UMP-45 | Corporal (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1hels1s$2.40$0.410.17x4h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare-TRAUMS-$2.40$1.070.45x7h

StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec-TRAUMS-$2.40$0.700.29x7h

StatTrak™ AUG | Chameleon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covertWorek$2.40$12652.30x13h

SG 553 | Pulse (Battle-Scarred)weapon · RestrictedWorek$2.40$2.561.07x13h

StatTrak™ Negev | Terrain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecKapitein$2.40$1.570.65x13h

Tec-9 | Sandstorm (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specDawg$2.40$0.490.20x16h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Corporal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · RareCRYSTAL$2.40$1.060.44x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.40	92.10%	96
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.40	92.05%	96
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.40	92.07%	96
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	96
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	96
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	96
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.40	92.04%	96
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.40	92.03%	96
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.40	92.08%	96
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96
4 Nov, 04:46 UTC	$2.40	92.00%	96

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.4%covert 0.1%red 0.0%classified 1.7%Classified 0.0%Restricted 4.5%restricted 14.0%#d32ee6 0.2%Mythical 2.2%Legendary 0.0%milspec 23.6%#8847ff 7.0%mil spec 16.7%Mil Spec 5.4%violet 1.8%Rare 10.1%Mil Spec Grade 4.8%#4b69ff 5.3%best hit $126 (52.30x)