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Prime case

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price
$1.29
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $1.19 from 35 items
Observed RTP, 30d
78.33%
293 openings, odds method
Variance
1.8×
of price², per opening
Tail share
14.0%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
81.9%
of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
24 hours
29 openings · below min
7 days
81.07%±17.30215 openings
30 days
78.33%±14.81293 openings
since tracking started
78.33%±14.81293 openings
39.5%87.5%135.5%

Windowsthe test per window

WindowOpeningsObservedDev.Method
24h2987.52%±47.5—odds
7d21581.07%±17.3−1.2σodds
30d29378.33%±14.8−1.8σodds
All29378.33%±14.8−1.8σodds
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 293 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
ItemOddsValueEV shareObservedExpectedHot / cold
Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1 in 6,250$33.670.5%00.0—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off | Wasteland Princess (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Classified1 in 5,000$29.310.5%00.1—
Glock-18 | Vogue (Factory New)weapon · Legendary1 in 704$13.331.6%00.4—
P90 | Trigon (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary1 in 234$12.644.5%01.30.00×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon | High Roller (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary1 in 372$11.622.6%00.8—
PP-Bizon | High Roller (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee61 in 377$11.032.5%10.8—
P90 | Trigon (Field-Tested)weapon · classified1 in 350$10.062.4%10.8—
StatTrak™ M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1 in 224$8.023.0%01.30.00×
MP7 | Vault Heist (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon1 in 61$4.756.5%24.80.42×
Glock-18 | Vogue (Well-Worn)weapon · pink1 in 65$4.405.7%64.51.33×
MP7 | Vault Heist (Field-Tested)weapon · Uncommon1 in 40$3.387.1%77.30.96×
M4A4 | Griffin (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 35$3.287.9%98.41.07×
AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 28$1.735.2%710.40.67×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 24$1.294.6%1412.31.14×
MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 21$1.225.0%1414.30.98×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 17$0.974.8%2017.21.16×
FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 17$0.974.9%1617.40.92×
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.933.3%912.40.73×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 31$0.822.2%69.30.64×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec1 in 29$0.812.4%810.10.79×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1 in 42$0.731.5%147.11.98×
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical1 in 36$0.711.6%78.00.87×
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec1 in 39$0.681.5%127.61.58×
MP5-SD | Agent (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 33$0.671.7%68.90.67×
StatTrak™ MP9 | Deadly Poison (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 39$0.661.4%97.41.21×
MP5-SD | Agent (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted1 in 35$0.551.3%88.30.96×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare1 in 37$0.551.2%147.81.79×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 32$0.491.3%89.10.88×
P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restricted1 in 29$0.461.3%1010.01.00×
Dual Berettas | Ventilators (Factory New)weapon · mil spec1 in 24$0.451.6%712.20.57×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 22$0.441.7%2013.61.47×
StatTrak™ AUG | Ricochet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1 in 21$0.441.8%1414.10.99×
P250 | X-Ray (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted1 in 23$0.421.6%1312.91.01×
MAC-10 | Rangeen (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec1 in 20$0.371.6%1514.81.01×
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade1 in 17$0.351.7%1617.20.93×
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/prime-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All Latest drops →
UMP-45 | Moonrise (Well-Worn)weapon · Mythical❦حب المال♂$1.29$0.700.54x
FAMAS | Neural Net (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted❦حب المال♂$1.29$0.980.76x
Galil AR | Tuxedo (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec❦حب المال♂$1.29$0.930.72x
StatTrak™ MAC-10 | Rangeen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec❦حب المال♂$1.29$0.440.34x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec❦حب المال♂$1.29$1.270.98x
MAC-10 | Rangeen (Factory New)weapon · mil spec❦حب المال♂$1.29$1.301.01x
FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedhels1s$1.29$0.970.75x
StatTrak™ SG 553 | Danger Close (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Gradeboblbes$1.29$0.350.27x
FAMAS | Neural Net (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedboblbes$1.29$0.970.75x
P250 | X-Ray (Minimal Wear)weapon · Restrictedboblbes$1.29$0.460.36x

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

CapturedPriceAdvertisedItems
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC$1.2992.00%35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC$1.2992.00%35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC$1.2992.00%35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC$1.2992.09%35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC$1.2992.08%35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC$1.2992.00%35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC$1.2992.00%35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC$1.2992.09%35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC$1.2992.00%35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC$1.2992.07%35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC$1.2992.00%35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC$1.2992.00%35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC$1.2992.01%35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC$1.2992.00%35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC$1.2992.00%35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC$1.2992.00%35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC$1.2992.07%35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC$1.2992.00%35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC$1.2992.00%35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC$1.2992.00%35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC$1.2992.00%35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC$1.2992.00%35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC$1.2992.00%35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC$1.2992.00%35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC$1.2992.00%35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC$1.2992.00%35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC$1.2992.00%35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC$1.2992.00%35
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC$1.2992.00%35
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC$1.2992.00%35
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedclassified 0.3%Classified 0.0%Legendary 0.8%#d32ee6 0.3%restricted 27.8%Uncommon 4.1%pink 1.5%mil spec 22.9%milspec 24.3%Mil Spec Grade 9.1%Mythical 2.7%Rare 2.7%Restricted 3.4%best hit —