Prisma 2 Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

92.06%

EV $4.41 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.94%

14 openings, odds method

Variance

1.9×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

10 openings · below min

30 days

14 openings · below min

since tracking started

14 openings · below min

-0.5%116.0%232.5%

Small sample. 14 openings and 2.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	111.86%±119.9	—	odds
7d	10	101.94%±85.7	—	odds
30d	14	87.94%±72.8	—	odds
All	14	87.94%±72.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 14 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$117	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$86.65	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$76.69	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$66.27	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$65.72	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$65.31	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$64.34	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$63.60	1.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$63.17	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$62.42	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 1,220	$60.92	1.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$60.57	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A1-S \| Player Two (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 2,128	$59.30	0.6%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$58.52	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Glock-18 \| Bullet Queen (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 833	$58.38	1.6%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 364	$51.02	3.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 368	$33.20	2.0%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 524	$22.78	1.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 139	$20.13	3.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 130	$17.76	3.1%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Justice (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 121	$17.20	3.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 144	$14.62	2.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 124	$14.28	2.6%	0	0.1	—
P2000 \| Acid Etched (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 140	$13.97	2.3%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 114	$12.64	2.5%	2	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$10.20	2.5%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 102	$9.83	2.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 76	$8.81	2.6%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 81	$8.67	2.4%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 147	$8.62	1.3%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Capillary (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 105	$8.40	1.8%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 172	$7.71	1.0%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Justice (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$7.55	1.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 88	$7.50	1.9%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 96	$7.11	1.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 118	$6.71	1.3%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 88	$6.52	1.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 89	$6.47	1.7%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 91	$6.38	1.6%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 93	$6.34	1.5%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Phantom Disruptor (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 105	$6.29	1.4%	0	0.1	—
MAG-7 \| Justice (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 88	$6.12	1.6%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$6.03	1.9%	0	0.2	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$5.63	2.3%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 46	$5.58	2.8%	1	0.3	—
MAG-7 \| Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 38	$5.50	3.3%	1	0.4	—
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$3.86	2.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 27	$3.49	2.9%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 21	$2.71	2.9%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 17	$2.41	3.2%	0	0.8	—
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 25	$2.26	2.0%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 26	$2.25	2.0%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Capillary (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 44	$2.20	1.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 61	$2.18	0.8%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 66	$2.11	0.7%	1	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$2.07	0.8%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.89	0.8%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 39	$1.47	0.9%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 34	$1.42	1.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 30	$1.30	1.0%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$1.14	0.8%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$1.03	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.97	0.4%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 59	$0.89	0.3%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$0.89	0.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$0.88	0.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Acid Etched (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$0.87	0.2%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Field-Tested)weapon · 3	1 in 122	$0.70	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Prototype (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 136	$0.68	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 106	$0.67	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 118	$0.67	0.1%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 118	$0.67	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SG 553 \| Darkwing (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 119	$0.63	0.1%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Enforcer (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 216	$0.61	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Apocalypto (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 246	$0.60	0.1%	0	0.1	—
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 146	$0.45	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 140	$0.41	0.1%	0	0.1	—
MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Minimal Wear)weapon · 1	1 in 161	$0.41	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 135	$0.40	0.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 120	$0.37	0.1%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Tom Cat (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 389	$0.36	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Desert Eagle \| Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 280	$0.36	0.0%	1	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 461	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Prototype (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 435	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Distressed (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 578	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Negev \| Prototype (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 235	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Bone Forged (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 469	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.0	—
MP5-SD \| Desert Strike (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 300	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 282	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 394	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.0	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/prisma2case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalШуврентий Палыч$4.79$2.240.47x2h

SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedDark Knight$4.79$11.772.46x19h

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNexXxi$4.79$2.230.47x22h

Desert Eagle | Blue Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffNexXxi$4.79$0.360.08x22h

StatTrak™ SG 553 | Darkwing (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedNexXxi$4.79$10.192.13x22h

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendaryyumo$4.79$6.451.35x1d

MAG-7 | Justice (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedyumo$4.79$5.501.15x1d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Acid Etched (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedE.Ş$4.79$0.960.20x4d

SCAR-20 | Enforcer (Factory New)weapon · restrictedоце так дав$4.79$3.630.76x5d

MAC-10 | Disco Tech (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedLuBOT$4.79$5.501.15x6d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.06%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	90
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	92.08%	90
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	90
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	90
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	92.03%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	90
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	91.99%	90
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	92.04%	90
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	91.99%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	92.08%	90
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 1.4%3 1.3%covert 0.5%classified 15.6%Classified 0.7%restricted 39.7%mil spec 7.8%Legendary 2.3%#4b69ff 2.0%pink 1.1%#d32ee6 1.0%Mythical 10.7%Mil Spec Grade 6.6%Restricted 3.3%Rare 0.7%violet 1.7%#8847ff 0.4%milspec 2.6%blue 0.2%Mil Spec 0.2%best hit —