Prisma Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$2.39

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $2.20 from 90 items

Observed RTP, 30d

97.66%

350 openings, odds method

Variance

2.5×

of price², per opening

Tail share

16.2%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

70.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

61 openings · below min

7 days

99.74%±24.89163 openings

30 days

97.66%±17.49350 openings

since tracking started

97.66%±17.49350 openings

74.0%116.5%159.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	61	118.94%±39.4	—	odds
7d	163	99.74%±24.9	+0.6σ	odds
30d	350	97.66%±17.5	+0.6σ	odds
All	350	97.66%±17.5	+0.6σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values90 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 350 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$80.47	0.7%	0	0.1	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$77.83	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$67.90	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 9,091	$66.35	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$65.83	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$63.16	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$61.28	0.4%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$61.16	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$61.01	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$60.97	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$58.91	0.5%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| The Emperor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 8,333	$58.85	0.3%	0	0.0	—
Five-SeveN \| Angry Mob (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$57.05	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$37.83	0.3%	3	0.1	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$32.86	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AUG \| Momentum (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$31.63	1.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,556	$23.87	0.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 769	$18.85	1.1%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$18.54	2.3%	1	1.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 474	$16.77	1.6%	0	0.7	—
AUG \| Momentum (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 317	$13.04	1.9%	0	1.1	0.00×
AWP \| Atheris (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 212	$8.35	1.8%	2	1.6	1.21×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 243	$7.91	1.5%	3	1.4	2.08×
StatTrak™ AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 161	$7.67	2.2%	3	2.2	1.38×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 135	$7.47	2.5%	0	2.6	0.00×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Incinegator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 286	$7.30	1.2%	0	1.2	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 395	$7.19	0.8%	4	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 405	$6.85	0.8%	0	0.9	—
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 364	$6.47	0.8%	0	1.0	—
AUG \| Momentum (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 172	$6.44	1.7%	0	2.0	0.00×
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 353	$6.25	0.8%	5	1.0	—
XM1014 \| Incinegator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 209	$6.17	1.3%	4	1.7	2.39×
AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 183	$5.93	1.5%	2	1.9	1.05×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 714	$5.93	0.4%	3	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 203	$5.81	1.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 210	$5.80	1.3%	0	1.7	0.00×
AUG \| Momentum (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 120	$5.56	2.1%	0	2.9	0.00×
R8 Revolver \| Skull Crusher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 107	$5.46	2.3%	1	3.3	0.31×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 129	$5.06	1.8%	3	2.7	1.10×
AWP \| Atheris (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 77	$4.60	2.7%	2	4.5	0.44×
AWP \| Atheris (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 74	$3.96	2.4%	5	4.7	1.05×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$3.90	2.9%	7	5.7	1.23×
AWP \| Atheris (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 58	$3.83	3.0%	2	6.1	0.33×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$3.79	2.7%	10	5.5	1.83×
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 63	$3.60	2.6%	9	5.5	1.63×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 51	$2.81	2.5%	6	6.9	0.87×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 42	$2.67	2.9%	9	8.3	1.09×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 33	$2.60	3.5%	19	10.5	1.81×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 30	$2.47	3.8%	11	11.7	0.94×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Uncharted (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 39	$2.25	2.6%	10	9.0	1.11×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 36	$1.90	2.4%	10	9.6	1.04×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 29	$1.63	2.6%	13	12.2	1.07×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$1.50	2.4%	11	12.5	0.88×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 28	$1.44	2.4%	16	12.7	1.26×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$1.30	1.7%	9	10.3	0.87×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$1.29	1.3%	12	7.5	1.60×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$1.23	1.0%	8	6.5	1.23×
Desert Eagle \| Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$1.19	1.0%	6	6.7	0.90×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$1.15	0.8%	5	5.4	0.92×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$1.12	0.8%	4	5.6	0.71×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 70	$1.04	0.7%	4	5.0	0.80×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$1.04	0.7%	4	5.1	0.79×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 62	$0.94	0.7%	10	5.6	1.78×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 53	$0.81	0.7%	11	6.6	1.67×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 55	$0.73	0.6%	6	6.4	0.94×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$0.73	0.6%	5	6.1	0.83×
StatTrak™ FAMAS \| Crypsis (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 55	$0.73	0.6%	6	6.3	0.95×
UMP-45 \| Moonrise (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 49	$0.66	0.6%	4	7.2	0.56×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 52	$0.66	0.6%	7	6.8	1.04×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$0.64	0.5%	4	5.7	0.70×
Tec-9 \| Bamboozle (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 61	$0.64	0.5%	5	5.8	0.87×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Mischief (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 56	$0.64	0.5%	5	6.3	0.79×
MP5-SD \| Gauss (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 83	$0.60	0.3%	5	4.2	1.18×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 71	$0.59	0.4%	5	4.9	1.01×
StatTrak™ P90 \| Off World (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 91	$0.46	0.2%	4	3.9	1.04×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 91	$0.46	0.2%	10	3.8	2.60×
MAC-10 \| Whitefish (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 60	$0.45	0.3%	1	5.8	0.17×
Galil AR \| Akoben (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 67	$0.42	0.3%	7	5.2	1.34×
P90 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 58	$0.36	0.3%	3	6.1	0.50×
P250 \| Verdigris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 100	$0.35	0.2%	5	3.5	1.42×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Verdigris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 98	$0.35	0.2%	10	3.6	2.81×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 102	$0.34	0.2%	1	3.4	0.29×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Well-Worn)weapon · mil spec	1 in 102	$0.34	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
Galil AR \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 102	$0.34	0.2%	0	3.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Akoben (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 78	$0.34	0.2%	1	4.5	0.22×
P90 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 108	$0.31	0.1%	0	3.2	0.00×
Galil AR \| Akoben (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 98	$0.31	0.1%	3	3.6	0.84×
FAMAS \| Crypsis (Battle-Scarred)weapon · milspec	1 in 123	$0.28	0.1%	5	2.9	1.75×
P90 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 107	$0.27	0.1%	0	3.3	0.00×
MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 66	$0.25	0.2%	0	5.3	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/prismacase, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Akoben (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspecpoizn$2.39$0.940.39x12h

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedpoizn$2.39$3.891.63x12h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedpoizn$2.39$0.730.31x12h

StatTrak™ UMP-45 | Moonrise (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedpoizn$2.39$2.601.09x12h

XM1014 | Incinegator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classifiedpoizn$2.39$6.222.60x12h

StatTrak™ P250 | Verdigris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specpoizn$2.39$0.660.28x12h

AWP | Atheris (Factory New)weapon · restrictedWorek$2.39$36.6415.33x13h

MP5-SD | Gauss (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedPesDiuk$2.39$0.660.28x17h

Desert Eagle | Light Rail (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedPesDiuk$2.39$1.190.50x17h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Bamboozle (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedPesDiuk$2.39$1.050.44x17h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$2.39	92.07%	90
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$2.39	92.04%	90
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$2.39	92.02%	90
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$2.39	92.03%	90
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$2.39	92.04%	90
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$2.39	92.04%	90
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$2.39	92.01%	90
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$2.39	92.08%	90
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$2.39	92.05%	90
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$2.39	92.04%	90
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$2.39	92.00%	90
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$2.39	92.07%	90

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.2%Covert 0.0%restricted 38.5%classified 5.7%Classified 0.8%Mythical 4.1%mil spec 14.3%#8847ff 3.8%milspec 24.2%Restricted 5.1%violet 1.6%#4b69ff 1.8%best hit —