Prize Wheel

A case on GGDROP (admin), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.85

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $4.47 from 35 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.30%

2,686 openings, odds method

Variance

0.8×

of price², per opening

Tail share

19.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

68.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

86.50%±8.03477 openings

7 days

89.58%±3.752,134 openings

30 days

90.30%±3.332,686 openings

since tracking started

90.30%±3.332,686 openings

78.0%86.5%95.0%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	477	86.50%±8.03	−1.3σ	odds
7d	2,134	89.58%±3.75	−1.3σ	odds
30d	2,686	90.30%±3.33	−1.0σ	odds
All	2,686	90.30%±3.33	−1.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values35 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,687 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 5,556	$35.23	0.1%	1	0.5	—
M4A4 \| Temukau (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 265	$30.61	2.6%	2	10.2	0.20×
USP-S \| Monster Mashup (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 304	$22.77	1.7%	8	8.8	0.90×
Glock-18 \| Water Elemental (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 826	$21.65	0.6%	10	3.3	3.08×
M4A1-S \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 236	$20.09	1.9%	10	11.4	0.88×
Five-SeveN \| Fairy Tale (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 172	$19.20	2.5%	10	15.6	0.64×
SSG 08 \| Turbo Peek (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 346	$18.25	1.2%	11	7.8	1.42×
AK-47 \| Cartel (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 214	$17.04	1.8%	11	12.5	0.88×
AK-47 \| Frontside Misty (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 165	$16.98	2.3%	20	16.3	1.23×
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 162	$13.96	1.9%	21	16.6	1.26×
AWP \| Fever Dream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 240	$13.93	1.3%	15	11.2	1.34×
Dual Berettas \| Hemoglobin (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$13.88	3.4%	14	29.3	0.48×
M4A4 \| 龍王 (Dragon King) (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 111	$13.65	2.8%	24	24.3	0.99×
AK-47 \| Aphrodite (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 86	$12.35	3.2%	28	31.1	0.90×
SCAR-20 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 72	$12.34	3.8%	32	37.2	0.86×
The Elite Mr. Muhlik \| Elite Crewagent · master	1 in 69	$9.90	3.2%	56	38.8	1.44×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Smoking Kills (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · uncommon	1 in 56	$9.80	3.9%	51	47.9	1.06×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 47	$7.45	3.6%	64	57.6	1.11×
Dual Berettas \| Melondrama (Minimal Wear)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 39	$7.37	4.3%	48	69.4	0.69×
M4A1-S \| Electrum (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 39	$7.20	4.1%	68	68.7	0.99×
Glock-18 \| Vogue (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 31	$6.15	4.4%	92	86.1	1.07×
M4A1-S \| Blood Tiger (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 40	$5.82	3.3%	74	67.1	1.10×
Dragomir \| Sabreagent · violet	1 in 31	$5.77	4.2%	70	86.3	0.81×
UMP-45 \| Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 28	$5.58	4.5%	95	96.7	0.98×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 28	$4.68	3.8%	89	96.9	0.92×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 25	$4.00	3.6%	122	108.6	1.12×
USP-S \| Cyrex (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 20	$3.41	3.9%	129	137.1	0.94×
P2000 \| Wicked Sick (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 16	$3.33	4.6%	151	165.8	0.91×
AWP \| PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 16	$2.40	3.4%	167	170.7	0.98×
AK-47 \| Elite Build (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$2.07	2.9%	182	170.6	1.07×
Charm \| Lil' Goopcharm · #8847ff	1 in 15	$2.07	3.0%	186	175.3	1.06×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Amberline (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 15	$1.79	2.7%	201	180.6	1.11×
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 13	$1.25	2.2%	193	213.2	0.91×
SSG 08 \| Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 15	$1.08	1.6%	188	178.7	1.05×
Desert Eagle \| Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 11	$0.88	1.7%	244	234.8	1.04×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/prize-wheel-ggdrop, 11 Nov, 20:46 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedakama[sos]$4.85$2.400.49x34s

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkakama[sos]$4.85$5.581.15x42s

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #d32ee6akama[sos]$4.85$4.680.96x51s

M4A1-S | Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classifiedДаня вареник$4.85$20.094.14x1m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffДаня вареник$4.85$1.080.22x1m

Desert Eagle | Firebreathing (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedДаня вареник$4.85$0.880.18x1m

AWP | PAW (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedДаня вареник$4.85$2.400.49x1m

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ffДаня вареник$4.85$1.250.26x1m

UMP-45 | Wild Child (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkДаня вареник$4.85$5.581.15x2m

SSG 08 | Fever Dream (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ffДаня вареник$4.85$1.080.22x2m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 20:46 UTC	$4.85	92.08%	35
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.85	92.09%	35
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.85	92.07%	35
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.85	92.08%	35
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.85	92.03%	35
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.85	92.02%	35
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.85	92.09%	35
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.85	92.07%	35
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.85	92.04%	35
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.85	92.01%	35
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.85	92.06%	35
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.85	92.08%	35
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.85	92.07%	35
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.85	92.06%	35
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.85	92.08%	35
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.85	92.00%	35

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedAncient 0.4%pink 10.1%classified 4.9%#d32ee6 7.1%restricted 23.4%red 1.2%master 1.4%uncommon 1.8%Mythical 9.3%Legendary 7.2%mil spec 2.5%violet 3.2%Rare 6.3%#8847ff 21.1%best hit —