Recoil case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$6.11

Advertised RTP

75.83%

EV $4.63 from 39 items

Observed RTP, 30d

77.18%

154 openings, odds method

Variance

1.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

1 in 10

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

85.0%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

20 openings · below min

7 days

75.56%±22.49144 openings

30 days

77.18%±21.74154 openings

since tracking started

77.18%±21.74154 openings

-0.5%58.0%116.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	20	55.41%±60.2	—	odds
7d	144	75.56%±22.5	−0.2σ	odds
30d	154	77.18%±21.7	−0.0σ	odds
All	154	77.18%±21.7	−0.0σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values39 items · odds summed to 0.9468, rescaled · observed counts over 154 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| Printstream (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 408	$40.24	2.2%	0	0.4	—
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 69	$40.16	13.3%	2	2.4	0.85×
AWP \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 59	$35.93	13.8%	2	2.7	0.73×
USP-S \| Printstream (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Ancient	1 in 57	$35.18	14.1%	4	2.9	1.39×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 22	$8.24	8.4%	8	7.3	1.10×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$5.48	6.6%	9	8.6	1.05×
P250 \| Visions (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 13	$4.98	8.9%	17	12.7	1.34×
AK-47 \| Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 13	$4.76	8.6%	15	12.8	1.17×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 17	$4.03	5.5%	7	9.7	0.72×
P250 \| Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 25	$3.99	3.6%	6	6.5	0.93×
P250 \| Visions (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 24	$3.86	3.7%	6	6.9	0.87×
Sawed-Off \| Kiss♥Love (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 19	$3.84	4.6%	10	8.5	1.18×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 18	$1.07	1.3%	4	8.9	0.45×
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 14	$0.80	1.3%	15	11.6	1.29×
SG 553 \| Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 12	$0.78	1.5%	13	13.5	0.96×
MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · Rare	11.1%	$0.62	1.6%	26	18.1	1.43×
Negev \| Drop Me (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 63	$0.57	0.2%	1	2.6	0.39×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 87	$0.50	0.1%	0	1.9	0.00×
P90 \| Vent Rush (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 100	$0.44	0.1%	1	1.6	0.62×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 203	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.8	—
M249 \| Downtown (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 254	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.6	—
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 125	$0.44	0.1%	2	1.3	1.53×
Dual Berettas \| Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 169	$0.43	0.1%	3	1.0	—
M249 \| Downtown (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 1,053	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.2	—
R8 Revolver \| Crazy 8 (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 256	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.6	—
P90 \| Vent Rush (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 291	$0.42	0.0%	2	0.6	—
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 269	$0.33	0.0%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 389	$0.24	0.0%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 153	$0.20	0.0%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Winterized (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 173	$0.19	0.0%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Drop Me (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #4B69FF	1 in 127	$0.19	0.0%	0	1.3	0.00×
M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 217	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Winterized (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 279	$0.18	0.0%	0	0.6	—
FAMAS \| Meow 36 (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 350	$0.17	0.0%	0	0.5	—
Galil AR \| Destroyer (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 174	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.9	—
MAC-10 \| Monkeyflage (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 212	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.8	—
UMP-45 \| Roadblock (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 1,389	$0.16	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 211	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Poly Mag (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 207	$0.15	0.0%	0	0.8	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/recoil, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkPhylong$6.11$4.060.66x9h

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · RareDODO$6.11$0.630.10x10h

Sawed-Off | Kiss♥Love (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkDODO$6.11$5.490.90x10h

Dual Berettas | Flora Carnivora (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violetDODO$6.11$0.460.08x10h

MAC-10 | Monkeyflage (Factory New)weapon · RareDODO$6.11$0.630.10x10h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryDODO$6.11$4.780.78x10h

SG 553 | Dragon Tech (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalDODO$6.11$0.780.13x10h

P250 | Visions (Field-Tested)weapon · pinkDODO$6.11$3.990.65x10h

AK-47 | Ice Coaled (Minimal Wear)weapon · LegendaryDODO$6.11$8.261.35x10h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 75.83%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$6.11	75.83%	39
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$6.11	75.81%	39
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$6.11	77.51%	39
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$6.11	76.75%	39
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$6.11	77.79%	39
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$6.11	77.58%	39
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$6.11	77.42%	39
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$6.11	78.84%	39
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$6.11	75.46%	39
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$6.11	75.43%	39
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$6.11	78.72%	39
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$6.11	77.30%	39
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$6.11	77.85%	39
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$6.11	77.05%	39
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$6.11	75.48%	39
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$6.11	76.94%	39
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$6.11	74.64%	39
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$6.11	78.86%	39
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$6.11	79.24%	39
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$6.11	77.43%	39
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$6.11	75.16%	39
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$6.11	78.80%	39
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$6.11	74.39%	39
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$6.11	76.38%	39
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$6.11	79.31%	39
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$6.11	76.05%	39
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$6.11	76.90%	39
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$6.11	78.66%	39
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$6.11	78.17%	39
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$6.11	75.75%	39

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 1.7%Ancient 3.5%Legendary 12.4%pink 32.5%Mythical 14.1%Rare 19.9%#4b69ff 1.6%#8847ff 2.0%violet 3.0%milspec 1.9%#4B69FF 0.8%blue 1.5%best hit —