Restricted
A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.
Price
$3.61
Advertised RTP
89.84%
EV $3.24 from 59 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.56%
277 openings, odds method
Variance
1.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
71.0%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values59 items · odds summed to 0.9924, rescaled · observed counts over 277 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
ggdrop:api/case/restricted, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 89.84%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $3.61 | 89.84% | 59 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $3.61 | 90.28% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $3.61 | 89.19% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $3.61 | 89.32% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $3.61 | 89.43% | 59 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $3.61 | 89.90% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $3.61 | 89.42% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $3.61 | 89.85% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $3.61 | 88.93% | 59 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $3.61 | 89.25% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $3.61 | 89.05% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $3.61 | 89.85% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $3.61 | 89.22% | 59 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $3.61 | 89.24% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $3.61 | 89.74% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $3.61 | 88.93% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $3.61 | 89.66% | 59 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $3.61 | 89.53% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $3.61 | 89.54% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $3.61 | 89.65% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $3.61 | 90.11% | 59 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $3.61 | 89.25% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $3.61 | 89.63% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $3.61 | 89.23% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $3.61 | 89.29% | 59 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $3.61 | 90.11% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $3.61 | 89.02% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $3.61 | 90.08% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $3.61 | 89.66% | 59 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $3.61 | 89.24% | 59 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listedrestricted 42.0%Mythical 18.7%violet 20.4%#8847ff 15.0%Restricted 3.2%best hit —