Revolver Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

92.01%

EV $4.41 from 125 items

Observed RTP, 30d

89.05%

35 openings, odds method

Variance

4.1×

of price², per opening

Tail share

15.9%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

75.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

7 days

30 openings · below min

30 days

35 openings · below min

since tracking started

35 openings · below min

21.5%81.0%140.5%

Small sample. 35 openings and 5.3 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	0	—	—	—
7d	30	76.87%±54.9	—	odds
30d	35	89.05%±50.9	—	odds
All	35	89.05%±50.9	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values125 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 35 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 5,556	$511	2.1%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$188	0.9%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 4,545	$127	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$119	0.3%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$106	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Ancient	1 in 10,000	$100	0.2%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$95.89	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$95.53	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$95.08	0.2%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 2,941	$92.68	0.7%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Fade (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$91.41	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$89.09	0.3%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$86.63	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| Royal Paladin (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$86.20	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$58.21	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 6,667	$57.14	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$55.12	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,923	$43.26	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 6,667	$35.46	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 840	$32.50	0.9%	1	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 621	$31.56	1.2%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 500	$30.67	1.4%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 324	$28.06	2.0%	0	0.1	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 388	$23.00	1.3%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$21.37	2.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 179	$17.11	2.2%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 152	$14.17	2.1%	0	0.2	—
AK-47 \| Point Disarray (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 134	$14.05	2.4%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 122	$13.75	2.6%	1	0.3	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 217	$13.50	1.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 952	$12.86	0.3%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 266	$12.69	1.1%	0	0.1	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 260	$12.38	1.1%	1	0.1	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 226	$11.59	1.2%	0	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 323	$11.25	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #D32CE6	1 in 208	$10.75	1.2%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 233	$10.46	1.0%	0	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 426	$10.45	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 225	$10.10	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 209	$10.06	1.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 265	$9.67	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 271	$9.58	0.8%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 208	$9.40	1.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 195	$9.23	1.1%	0	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 332	$9.22	0.6%	1	0.1	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 143	$8.84	1.4%	1	0.2	—
P90 \| Shapewood (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 152	$8.72	1.3%	0	0.2	—
G3SG1 \| The Executioner (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 120	$8.45	1.6%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 121	$8.31	1.6%	0	0.3	—
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Factory New)weapon · Mythical	1 in 105	$8.20	1.8%	0	0.3	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 88	$7.49	1.9%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$6.27	1.7%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 65	$6.15	2.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 54	$6.12	2.6%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 56	$5.84	2.4%	1	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 85	$5.82	1.6%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 81	$5.13	1.4%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 61	$4.78	1.8%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 64	$4.64	1.7%	1	0.5	—
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$4.42	2.0%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$4.24	1.4%	1	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 81	$4.21	1.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 81	$4.15	1.2%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$4.08	1.3%	1	0.5	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 106	$3.98	0.9%	1	0.3	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$3.68	1.0%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 74	$3.56	1.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 56	$3.11	1.3%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 59	$3.11	1.2%	0	0.6	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 58	$3.08	1.2%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 63	$2.98	1.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$2.70	1.0%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 86	$2.68	0.7%	0	0.4	—
XM1014 \| Teclu Burner (Minimal Wear)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 73	$2.64	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 73	$2.59	0.8%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 73	$2.59	0.8%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 95	$2.49	0.6%	0	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 104	$2.41	0.5%	1	0.3	—
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$2.37	0.7%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 73	$2.17	0.7%	1	0.5	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 70	$2.14	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 82	$2.10	0.6%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 68	$2.09	0.7%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$2.06	0.5%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$2.06	0.5%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 94	$1.97	0.5%	0	0.4	—
AUG \| Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 79	$1.73	0.5%	3	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 68	$1.68	0.6%	0	0.5	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 52	$1.65	0.7%	2	0.7	—
PP-Bizon \| Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 51	$1.51	0.7%	2	0.7	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 83	$1.41	0.4%	2	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 81	$1.38	0.4%	0	0.4	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 72	$1.36	0.4%	0	0.5	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 119	$1.34	0.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 107	$1.34	0.3%	0	0.3	—
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 173	$1.29	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 129	$1.16	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 129	$1.16	0.2%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 148	$1.16	0.2%	1	0.2	—
Negev \| Power Loader (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 141	$1.15	0.2%	0	0.2	—
Five-SeveN \| Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 3	1 in 115	$1.13	0.2%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 115	$1.10	0.2%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Tiger Moth (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 123	$1.10	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 131	$1.07	0.2%	1	0.3	—
P2000 \| Imperial (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 134	$1.03	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 111	$1.02	0.2%	0	0.3	—
R8 Revolver \| Crimson Web (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 125	$1.02	0.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Imperial (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 103	$0.94	0.2%	0	0.3	—
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 96	$0.82	0.2%	0	0.4	—
P2000 \| Imperial (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 85	$0.67	0.2%	1	0.4	—
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 63	$0.63	0.2%	0	0.6	—
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 66	$0.51	0.2%	0	0.5	—
AUG \| Ricochet (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 67	$0.51	0.2%	1	0.5	—
Desert Eagle \| Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 86	$0.50	0.1%	1	0.4	—
AUG \| Ricochet (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 175	$0.45	0.1%	1	0.2	—
AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 162	$0.44	0.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Ricochet (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 139	$0.44	0.1%	0	0.3	—
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 292	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 289	$0.42	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 217	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.2	—
AUG \| Ricochet (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 213	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.2	—
SCAR-20 \| Outbreak (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 272	$0.41	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 199	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 273	$0.28	0.0%	1	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Yorick (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 239	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/revolver, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedSagopa Kajmer$4.79$1.520.32x1d

AUG | Ricochet (Factory New)weapon · mil specdnbneuro$4.79$1.550.32x2d

StatTrak™ Five-SeveN | Retrobution (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted1$4.79$2.040.43x2d

P90 | Shapewood (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee61$4.79$9.091.90x2d

P90 | Shapewood (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified1$4.79$12.072.52x2d

PP-Bizon | Fuel Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted1$4.79$2.430.51x2d

StatTrak™ P2000 | Imperial (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff1$4.79$1.370.29x2d

StatTrak™ Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecYasminn❤️🍬$4.79$3.620.76x2d

Desert Eagle | Corinthian (Field-Tested)weapon · bluebogdanovskli98$4.79$0.510.11x4d

Tec-9 | Avalanche (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restrictedbogdanovskli98$4.79$1.110.23x4d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.01%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	92.01%	125
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	92.01%	125
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	125
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	125
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	92.07%	125
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	92.07%	125
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	92.02%	125
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	125
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	92.10%	125
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	92.03%	125
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	125
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	125

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 2.5%3 0.9%red 0.0%covert 0.2%Ancient 0.0%classified 5.9%#d32ee6 0.8%restricted 39.1%Mil Spec Grade 3.8%Restricted 3.7%mil spec 11.1%#D32CE6 0.5%Classified 0.9%pink 1.1%Mythical 4.8%#8847ff 5.4%violet 5.3%milspec 9.9%#4b69ff 2.0%blue 1.2%Rare 0.9%best hit —