RUSH B

A case on GGDROP (bum), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$0.79

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $0.73 from 34 items

Observed RTP, 30d

132.13%

894 openings, odds method

Variance

2.3×

of price², per opening

Tail share

18.3%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.2%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

76 openings · below min

7 days

126.03%±10.12691 openings

30 days

132.13%±9.04894 openings

since tracking started

132.13%±9.04894 openings

91.5%125.8%160.0%

Outside band, 30 days. Advertised 92.01% sits outside the 95% band of the observed openings (123.09% – 141.17%, 894 openings, 30 days). The band comes from the site's own odds and values; the figure is a fact about these openings, not a verdict on the case.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	76	126.83%±32.3	—	odds
7d	691	126.03%±10.1	+6.6σ	odds
30d	894	132.13%±9.04	+8.7σ	odds
All	894	132.13%±9.04	+8.7σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values34 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 894 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Bloodsport (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Covert	1 in 6,667	$28.66	0.6%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P90 \| Shallow Grave (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$17.77	0.3%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,111	$13.80	1.7%	3	0.8	—
P250 \| Asiimov (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$12.97	0.4%	0	0.2	—
Galil AR \| Vandal (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 222	$11.53	7.2%	7	4.0	1.74×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 201	$7.81	5.3%	6	4.4	1.35×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 106	$3.75	4.9%	13	8.4	1.54×
MP7 \| Mischief (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 108	$2.16	2.7%	22	8.3	2.66×
StatTrak™ MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 74	$2.00	3.7%	12	12.1	0.99×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 40	$1.72	5.9%	29	22.4	1.30×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 46	$1.38	4.2%	30	19.6	1.53×
AUG \| Aristocrat (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$1.33	3.8%	38	18.8	2.02×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 41	$1.20	4.0%	20	21.6	0.93×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 41	$1.20	4.1%	31	21.9	1.41×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 43	$1.18	3.7%	33	20.6	1.60×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 46	$0.84	2.5%	37	19.3	1.91×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 35	$0.82	3.2%	45	25.3	1.78×
Souvenir MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weapon	1 in 40	$0.82	2.8%	37	22.5	1.65×
Galil AR \| Vandal (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 33	$0.77	3.2%	32	26.8	1.19×
PP-Bizon \| Space Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 28	$0.63	3.1%	44	32.0	1.37×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 28	$0.63	3.1%	38	31.9	1.19×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 36	$0.58	2.2%	40	24.7	1.62×
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 31	$0.54	2.4%	37	28.4	1.30×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 29	$0.53	2.5%	45	31.0	1.45×
M4A1-S \| Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$0.52	2.4%	60	30.2	1.99×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 27	$0.52	2.6%	40	32.8	1.22×
SSG 08 \| Necropos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 28	$0.49	2.4%	56	32.0	1.75×
MAG-7 \| Monster Call (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 26	$0.42	2.2%	44	34.3	1.28×
AUG \| Tom Cat (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 24	$0.35	2.0%	43	37.2	1.15×
SG 553 \| Danger Close (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 16	$0.29	2.5%	51	56.2	0.91×
MP7 \| Mischief (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil spec	1 in 14	$0.25	2.5%	0	66.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Tom Cat (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 14	$0.24	2.4%	0	65.9	0.00×
MAC-10 \| Calf Skin (Minimal Wear)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 14	$0.18	1.8%	0	65.4	0.00×
MP5-SD \| Necro Jr. (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 13	$0.14	1.5%	0	68.4	0.00×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/rus-b, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

SSG 08 | Necropos (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specdefusen677$0.79$1.211.53x6m

MP5-SD | Necro Jr. (Factory New)weapon · RareШуврентий Палыч$0.79$0.580.73x4h

Galil AR | Vandal (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ffШуврентий Палыч$0.79$0.770.97x4h

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictedШуврентий Палыч$0.79$0.520.66x4h

Souvenir MAC-10 | Calf Skin (Well-Worn)Souvenir · weaponnazarenkos591$0.79$0.821.04x7h

SSG 08 | Necropos (Battle-Scarred)weapon · mil specnazarenkos591$0.79$0.490.62x7h

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictednazarenkos591$0.79$0.520.66x7h

SG 553 | Danger Close (Factory New)weapon · bluenazarenkos591$0.79$0.650.82x7h

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictednazarenkos591$0.79$0.520.66x7h

M4A1-S | Nitro (Field-Tested)weapon · restrictednazarenkos591$0.79$0.510.65x7h

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$0.79	92.09%	34
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$0.79	92.09%	34
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$0.79	92.05%	34
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$0.79	92.01%	34
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$0.79	92.03%	34
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$0.79	92.00%	34
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$0.79	92.09%	34

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedCovert 0.0%classified 0.0%Legendary 1.5%blue 6.5%mil spec 14.4%#8847ff 5.2%restricted 11.1%violet 8.3%#4b69ff 9.3%Restricted 2.8%other 2.5%Rare 9.1%milspec 21.9%Uncommon 7.3%best hit —