Shattered Web Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$5.90

Advertised RTP

92.07%

EV $5.43 from 89 items

Observed RTP, 30d

88.26%

100 openings, odds method

Variance

1.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

17.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.5%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

5 openings · below min

7 days

97 openings · below min

30 days

88.26%±23.51100 openings

since tracking started

88.26%±23.51100 openings

-0.5%81.5%163.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	5	57.25%±105.4	—	odds
7d	97	90.03%±23.9	—	odds
30d	100	88.26%±23.5	−0.3σ	odds
All	100	88.26%±23.5	−0.3σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values89 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 100 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$138	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$135	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$125	0.3%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$101	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,692	$92.63	0.2%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 4,762	$92.21	0.4%	1	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 9,091	$91.86	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 10,000	$79.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$75.16	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$62.78	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$57.30	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · red	1 in 7,692	$56.55	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$55.79	0.2%	0	0.0	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,087	$50.38	0.9%	0	0.1	—
AWP \| Containment Breach (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$48.97	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$48.00	0.2%	0	0.0	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Factory New)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 1,176	$45.15	0.7%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 3,448	$44.75	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 1,099	$44.74	0.7%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 6,250	$41.61	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 7,143	$40.59	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 559	$40.47	1.3%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$39.67	0.1%	0	0.0	—
MAC-10 \| Stalker (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 418	$39.49	1.7%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 781	$38.14	0.9%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 389	$26.41	1.2%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 356	$26.27	1.4%	0	0.3	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 207	$21.75	1.9%	0	0.5	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 170	$19.89	2.2%	1	0.6	—
SSG 08 \| Bloodshot (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 233	$19.61	1.5%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 160	$18.87	2.2%	0	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 362	$18.77	1.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 474	$18.63	0.7%	2	0.2	—
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 372	$17.92	0.9%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 271	$17.80	1.2%	0	0.4	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 220	$17.32	1.5%	0	0.5	—
P2000 \| Obsidian (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 181	$16.96	1.7%	0	0.6	—
Tec-9 \| Decimator (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 185	$16.78	1.7%	0	0.5	—
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 154	$14.14	1.7%	1	0.6	—
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 125	$12.38	1.8%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 94	$11.94	2.3%	2	1.1	1.88×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 71	$11.50	3.0%	0	1.4	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 92	$11.35	2.3%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 135	$11.10	1.5%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 125	$10.45	1.5%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 103	$9.71	1.7%	3	1.0	—
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 87	$9.58	2.0%	2	1.1	1.74×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 75	$9.56	2.4%	2	1.3	1.49×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Battle-Scarred)weapon · classified	1 in 74	$9.50	2.4%	2	1.4	1.47×
SG 553 \| Colony IV (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 78	$9.45	2.2%	0	1.3	0.00×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 60	$8.63	2.6%	1	1.7	0.60×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$6.42	2.5%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$5.96	2.9%	2	2.6	0.76×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 31	$5.30	3.2%	1	3.3	0.31×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 29	$5.01	3.2%	5	3.5	1.43×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 47	$4.58	1.8%	2	2.1	0.93×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$4.57	1.7%	3	2.0	1.48×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 63	$4.53	1.3%	1	1.6	0.63×
StatTrak™ MP7 \| Neon Ply (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 75	$4.40	1.1%	1	1.3	0.75×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Plume (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 137	$4.29	0.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 98	$4.24	0.8%	5	1.0	4.91×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 97	$4.24	0.8%	1	1.0	0.97×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 86	$4.20	0.9%	2	1.2	1.73×
AK-47 \| Rat Rod (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 86	$4.15	0.9%	0	1.2	0.00×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 69	$3.56	0.9%	1	1.4	0.69×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$3.36	1.1%	2	1.8	1.13×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$3.31	1.3%	0	2.2	0.00×
Nova \| Plume (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 45	$3.31	1.4%	2	2.2	0.90×
R8 Revolver \| Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 42	$2.81	1.2%	6	2.4	2.51×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$2.70	0.9%	2	1.7	1.15×
P2000 \| Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 62	$2.64	0.8%	3	1.6	1.86×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 42	$2.53	1.1%	3	2.4	1.27×
SCAR-20 \| Torn (Factory New)weapon · mil spec	1 in 94	$2.52	0.5%	1	1.1	0.94×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Balance (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 95	$2.47	0.5%	0	1.1	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 84	$2.45	0.5%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 94	$2.41	0.5%	1	1.1	0.94×
MP7 \| Neon Ply (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 78	$2.33	0.5%	2	1.3	1.56×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 68	$2.27	0.6%	3	1.5	2.03×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Plume (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 61	$2.17	0.7%	1	1.6	0.61×
G3SG1 \| Black Sand (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 57	$2.10	0.7%	1	1.8	0.57×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 49	$1.99	0.7%	2	2.0	0.98×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Memento (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 45	$1.92	0.8%	1	2.2	0.45×
PP-Bizon \| Embargo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 45	$1.91	0.8%	4	2.2	1.79×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$1.89	0.9%	2	2.6	0.78×
AUG \| Arctic Wolf (Field-Tested)weapon · restricted	1 in 38	$1.81	0.9%	2	2.6	0.76×
M249 \| Warbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 33	$1.74	1.0%	3	3.0	1.00×
StatTrak™ Dual Berettas \| Balance (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 27	$1.67	1.1%	2	3.7	0.54×
StatTrak™ MP5-SD \| Acid Wash (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · 1	1 in 22	$1.55	1.3%	6	4.6	1.29×
SCAR-20 \| Torn (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 16	$0.67	0.8%	6	6.2	0.96×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/shatteredweb, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedHarashy$5.90$2.660.45x8h

StatTrak™ Nova | Plume (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil specpal9$5.90$2.180.37x14h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedYakoyu Kugura$5.90$5.170.88x16h

StatTrak™ MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedYakoyu Kugura$5.90$5.120.87x16h

M249 | Warbird (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specSayfilich$5.90$1.760.30x22h

AUG | Arctic Wolf (Well-Worn)weapon · #8847fftolgv1$5.90$2.530.43x1d

P2000 | Obsidian (Well-Worn)weapon · restrictedpAtRik_009$5.90$2.600.44x1d

R8 Revolver | Memento (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil specKorry98$5.90$2.800.47x1d

StatTrak™ AUG | Arctic Wolf (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedSayfilich$5.90$4.490.76x1d

StatTrak™ MP7 | Neon Ply (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · RestrictedSayfilich$5.90$5.260.89x1d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.07%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$5.90	92.07%	89
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$5.90	92.08%	89
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$5.90	92.10%	89
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$5.90	92.08%	89
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$5.90	92.04%	89
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$5.90	92.09%	89
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$5.90	92.04%	89
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$5.90	92.10%	89
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$5.90	92.05%	89
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$5.90	92.05%	89
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$5.90	92.00%	89
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$5.90	92.07%	89

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 4.6%covert 0.6%classified 7.4%restricted 37.2%red 0.0%#d32ee6 0.1%Classified 0.0%Mythical 0.3%mil spec 22.3%milspec 4.3%Restricted 8.9%#8847ff 6.1%Mil Spec Grade 7.0%violet 1.0%best hit —