Snakebite Case

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.81

Advertised RTP

92.08%

EV $4.43 from 98 items

Observed RTP, 30d

87.58%

83 openings, odds method

Variance

1.6×

of price², per opening

Tail share

14.8%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

74.4%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

2 openings · below min

7 days

80 openings · below min

30 days

83 openings · below min

since tracking started

83 openings · below min

-0.5%127.5%255.5%

Small sample. 83 openings and 13.1 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	2	80.98%±173.7	—	odds
7d	80	89.98%±27.3	—	odds
30d	83	87.58%±26.8	—	odds
All	83	87.58%±26.8	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values98 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 83 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
USP-S \| The Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Ancient	1 in 8,333	$101	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · #eb4b4b	1 in 5,556	$93.00	0.4%	0	0.0	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$85.35	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$58.21	0.2%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 9,091	$49.32	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 1,695	$45.75	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$44.27	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 1,429	$41.57	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Well-Worn)gloves · Extraordinary	1 in 870	$41.34	1.1%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,882	$37.52	0.1%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Field-Tested)weapon · red	1 in 1,136	$37.45	0.7%	0	0.1	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Field-Tested)gloves · gold	1 in 7,692	$37.38	0.1%	0	0.0	—
★ Hydra Gloves \| Emerald (Battle-Scarred)gloves · sunny	1 in 833	$36.77	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Field-Tested)weapon · Ancient	1 in 787	$35.30	1.0%	0	0.1	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 1,754	$35.24	0.5%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Well-Worn)weapon · red	1 in 529	$35.09	1.5%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A4 \| In Living Color (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$34.68	0.2%	0	0.0	—
USP-S \| The Traitor (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 362	$33.71	2.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 292	$33.05	2.6%	1	0.3	—
M4A4 \| In Living Color (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 307	$31.62	2.3%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 168	$22.87	3.1%	0	0.5	—
MP9 \| Food Chain (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 159	$17.39	2.5%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 110	$15.89	3.3%	2	0.8	—
AK-47 \| Slate (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 99	$15.84	3.6%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 87	$14.92	3.9%	0	0.9	—
XM1014 \| XOXO (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 122	$14.20	2.6%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$11.35	2.7%	2	0.9	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| Slate (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$11.05	3.1%	2	1.0	1.97×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 59	$9.15	3.5%	2	1.4	1.41×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)weapon · Legendary	1 in 49	$7.81	3.6%	1	1.7	0.59×
AK-47 \| Slate (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 57	$7.39	2.9%	1	1.5	0.69×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 45	$7.21	3.6%	3	1.9	1.62×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 50	$6.68	3.0%	1	1.7	0.60×
StatTrak™ Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 79	$6.50	1.9%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 61	$6.05	2.3%	2	1.4	1.46×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · pink	1 in 55	$5.92	2.4%	1	1.5	0.67×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 54	$5.25	2.2%	1	1.5	0.66×
AK-47 \| Slate (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 46	$4.59	2.3%	4	1.8	2.21×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 41	$4.21	2.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · Legendary	1 in 36	$4.02	2.5%	5	2.3	2.15×
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 40	$3.91	2.2%	4	2.1	1.91×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Well-Worn)weapon · pink	1 in 53	$3.90	1.7%	0	1.6	0.00×
Galil AR \| Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendary	1 in 62	$3.75	1.4%	3	1.3	2.24×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Battle-Scarred)weapon · pink	1 in 62	$3.68	1.3%	1	1.3	0.74×
MP9 \| Food Chain (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 51	$3.65	1.6%	1	1.6	0.61×
XM1014 \| XOXO (Well-Worn)weapon · #d32ee6	1 in 43	$3.64	1.9%	1	1.9	0.51×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Factory New)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 42	$3.29	1.8%	1	2.0	0.50×
Negev \| dev_texture (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 30	$2.76	2.1%	2	2.7	0.73×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$1.89	1.8%	6	3.6	1.68×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 20	$1.86	2.2%	5	4.3	1.18×
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 18	$1.58	2.0%	4	4.6	0.86×
StatTrak™ Negev \| dev_texture (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 19	$1.45	1.7%	2	4.3	0.46×
StatTrak™ Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 41	$1.41	0.8%	8	2.0	3.97×
StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 34	$1.18	0.8%	2	2.5	0.81×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$1.06	0.5%	0	1.8	0.00×
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 46	$1.03	0.5%	1	1.8	0.56×
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 45	$0.98	0.5%	1	1.8	0.54×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 68	$0.94	0.3%	3	1.2	2.45×
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 92	$0.84	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 94	$0.80	0.2%	1	0.9	—
Negev \| dev_texture (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 97	$0.71	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| Cyber Shell (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 96	$0.66	0.2%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Well-Worn)weapon · restricted	1 in 97	$0.66	0.2%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ Negev \| dev_texture (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 94	$0.63	0.2%	0	0.9	—
Desert Eagle \| Trigger Discipline (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 137	$0.63	0.1%	0	0.6	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 169	$0.59	0.1%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 222	$0.57	0.1%	2	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 252	$0.55	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 189	$0.49	0.1%	0	0.4	—
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 315	$0.46	0.0%	0	0.3	—
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 351	$0.44	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 261	$0.44	0.0%	1	0.3	—
Nova \| Windblown (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 538	$0.44	0.0%	1	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Button Masher (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 279	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Negev \| dev_texture (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 273	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.3	—
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 617	$0.43	0.0%	1	0.1	—
P250 \| Cyber Shell (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 217	$0.43	0.0%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 645	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 221	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.4	—
SG 553 \| Heavy Metal (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 282	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 862	$0.38	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 461	$0.37	0.0%	1	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 855	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 662	$0.36	0.0%	1	0.1	—
StatTrak™ M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 667	$0.36	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Minimal Wear)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 424	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Nova \| Windblown (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 735	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.1	—
R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 752	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 909	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Glock-18 \| Clear Polymer (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 877	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Junk Yard (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 862	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.1	—
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 826	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.1	—
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Field-Tested)weapon · Rare	1 in 787	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.1	—
M249 \| O.S.I.P.R. (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 625	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Nova \| Windblown (Battle-Scarred)weapon · 1	1 in 273	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.3	—
Nova \| Windblown (Field-Tested)weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 379	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.2	—
UMP-45 \| Oscillator (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 493	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.2	—
CZ75-Auto \| Circaetus (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 324	$0.28	0.0%	0	0.3	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/snakebite, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

XM1014 | XOXO (Field-Tested)weapon · LegendaryCRYSTAL$4.81$4.030.84x18h

Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Battle-Scarred)weapon · Legendarysanshas$4.81$3.760.78x20h

Desert Eagle | Trigger Discipline (Minimal Wear)weapon · violetyumo$4.81$1.900.40x1d

StatTrak™ Negev | dev_texture (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restrictedyumo$4.81$1.420.30x1d

P250 | Cyber Shell (Factory New)weapon · #8847ffnCaw | ..Mede$4.81$3.720.77x1d

StatTrak™ Galil AR | Chromatic Aberration (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classifiednCaw | ..Mede$4.81$16.073.34x1d

AK-47 | Slate (Factory New)weapon · restrictednCaw | ..Mede$4.81$16.023.33x1d

MP9 | Food Chain (Minimal Wear)weapon · pinkSKYWAVE$4.81$7.321.52x2d

StatTrak™ Glock-18 | Clear Polymer (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec1$4.81$1.870.39x2d

StatTrak™ P250 | Cyber Shell (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted1$4.81$1.620.34x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.08%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.81	92.08%	98
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.81	92.04%	98
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.81	92.02%	98
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.81	92.09%	98
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.81	92.04%	98
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.81	92.05%	98
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.81	92.04%	98
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.81	92.00%	98

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.4%Ancient 0.1%#eb4b4b 0.0%covert 0.5%restricted 11.7%Legendary 10.7%Extraordinary 0.1%classified 10.2%red 0.6%gold 0.0%sunny 0.1%pink 8.7%#d32ee6 3.6%Mythical 3.3%#8847ff 6.1%violet 12.5%milspec 13.0%Restricted 10.8%Rare 3.6%#4b69ff 2.6%blue 0.8%Mil Spec 0.7%Mil Spec Grade 0.1%best hit —