Spectrum 2

A case on GGDROP (standard), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$4.79

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $4.41 from 129 items

Observed RTP, 30d

80.32%

76 openings, odds method

Variance

3.7×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.1%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

80.9%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

4 openings · below min

7 days

72 openings · below min

30 days

76 openings · below min

since tracking started

76 openings · below min

-0.5%112.0%224.5%

Small sample. 76 openings and 10.4 expected rare hits: below the 100 openings and 5 hits the test needs, so no verdict.

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	4	44.94%±179.1	—	odds
7d	72	82.70%±41.4	—	odds
30d	76	80.32%±40.4	—	odds
All	76	80.32%±40.4	—	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values129 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 76 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
AK-47 \| The Empress (Factory New)weapon · covert	1 in 5,000	$236	1.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,692	$187	0.6%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Well-Worn)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 6,667	$183	0.6%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$182	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$131	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 5,556	$126	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$122	0.4%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$120	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Minimal Wear)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$119	0.4%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$117	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 10,000	$115	0.3%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$114	0.5%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$114	0.4%	0	0.0	—
P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 5,263	$114	0.5%	0	0.0	—
AK-47 \| The Empress (Well-Worn)weapon · covert	1 in 5,882	$111	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)StatTrak · knife · covert	1 in 5,882	$110	0.4%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 7,143	$109	0.3%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ AK-47 \| The Empress (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 6,250	$109	0.4%	0	0.0	—
★ StatTrak™ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · knife · covert knife	1 in 5,263	$107	0.5%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ P250 \| See Ya Later (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · covert	1 in 9,091	$104	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · Immortal	1 in 6,250	$80.24	0.3%	0	0.0	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · covert	1 in 1,124	$79.04	1.6%	0	0.1	—
★ Bowie Knife \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 8,333	$76.84	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Minimal Wear)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$69.74	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Battle-Scarred)knife · covert	1 in 6,667	$57.74	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Well-Worn)knife · covert	1 in 7,143	$57.34	0.2%	0	0.0	—
★ Shadow Daggers \| Stained (Field-Tested)knife · Immortal	1 in 1,786	$57.05	0.7%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 909	$56.47	1.4%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 5,000	$40.97	0.2%	0	0.0	—
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 1,961	$28.74	0.3%	0	0.0	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Factory New)weapon · classified	1 in 5,263	$23.10	0.1%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 213	$21.41	2.3%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 284	$19.55	1.6%	2	0.3	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 386	$18.71	1.1%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 309	$18.60	1.4%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 221	$13.27	1.4%	0	0.3	—
Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 122	$13.12	2.4%	1	0.6	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 116	$12.62	2.5%	0	0.7	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Minimal Wear)weapon · pink	1 in 85	$12.48	3.3%	0	0.9	—
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Minimal Wear)weapon · classified	1 in 100	$12.45	2.8%	0	0.8	—
R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 171	$11.67	1.5%	0	0.4	—
PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)weapon · classified	1 in 128	$11.67	2.1%	0	0.6	—
M4A1-S \| Leaded Glass (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 86	$11.64	3.1%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Legendary	1 in 107	$11.62	2.5%	1	0.7	—
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 64	$10.99	3.9%	1	1.2	0.84×
StatTrak™ PP-Bizon \| High Roller (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Classified	1 in 61	$10.92	4.1%	2	1.3	1.60×
StatTrak™ R8 Revolver \| Llama Cannon (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · classified	1 in 41	$10.43	5.7%	4	1.8	2.18×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 28	$4.84	3.9%	6	2.7	2.24×
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 25	$4.69	4.3%	4	3.1	1.29×
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 21	$4.43	4.7%	1	3.6	0.28×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 16	$3.82	5.4%	4	4.8	0.84×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 37	$3.73	2.3%	0	2.0	0.00×
MP9 \| Goo (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 36	$3.44	2.1%	1	2.1	0.48×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 37	$3.36	2.1%	4	2.1	1.94×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Restricted	1 in 46	$3.18	1.6%	4	1.7	2.41×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 38	$2.55	1.5%	3	2.0	1.50×
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 40	$2.45	1.4%	2	1.9	1.05×
SG 553 \| Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violet	1 in 33	$2.20	1.5%	1	2.3	0.44×
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 32	$2.09	1.5%	1	2.3	0.43×
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blue	1 in 59	$2.07	0.8%	3	1.3	2.32×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 48	$2.03	1.0%	2	1.6	1.25×
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$1.98	0.6%	3	1.0	2.99×
StatTrak™ SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 97	$1.85	0.4%	1	0.8	—
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 100	$1.84	0.4%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 75	$1.66	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 76	$1.64	0.5%	0	1.0	0.00×
StatTrak™ UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 89	$1.57	0.4%	0	0.9	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 87	$1.55	0.4%	0	0.9	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 80	$1.55	0.4%	2	1.0	—
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 102	$1.37	0.3%	2	0.7	—
MP9 \| Goo (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 79	$1.33	0.4%	0	1.0	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ff	1 in 94	$1.33	0.3%	3	0.8	—
SG 553 \| Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · Mythical	1 in 152	$1.31	0.2%	1	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 82	$1.23	0.3%	2	0.9	—
MP9 \| Goo (Well-Worn)weapon · 3	1 in 140	$1.22	0.2%	1	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 239	$1.22	0.1%	0	0.3	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 243	$1.22	0.1%	0	0.3	—
MP9 \| Goo (Field-Tested)weapon · Mythical	1 in 138	$1.21	0.2%	0	0.6	—
XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 160	$1.21	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 188	$1.20	0.1%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Well-Worn)weapon · violet	1 in 187	$1.20	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · restricted	1 in 178	$1.19	0.2%	2	0.4	—
CZ75-Auto \| Tacticat (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #8847ff	1 in 249	$1.18	0.1%	0	0.3	—
SG 553 \| Phantom (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 202	$1.18	0.1%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ XM1014 \| Ziggy (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · Mythical	1 in 167	$1.18	0.2%	0	0.5	—
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Battle-Scarred)weapon · violet	1 in 201	$1.18	0.1%	0	0.4	—
UMP-45 \| Exposure (Field-Tested)weapon · violet	1 in 166	$1.18	0.2%	0	0.5	—
MP9 \| Goo (Battle-Scarred)weapon · restricted	1 in 263	$1.16	0.1%	0	0.3	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 144	$1.12	0.2%	0	0.5	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 173	$0.79	0.1%	1	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 65	$0.75	0.3%	0	1.2	0.00×
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 45	$0.61	0.3%	1	1.7	0.59×
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 39	$0.53	0.3%	5	1.9	2.60×
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 118	$0.51	0.1%	1	0.6	—
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 106	$0.51	0.1%	0	0.7	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · mil spec	1 in 116	$0.51	0.1%	0	0.7	—
Glock-18 \| Off World (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 97	$0.46	0.1%	0	0.8	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 196	$0.45	0.1%	0	0.4	—
StatTrak™ Glock-18 \| Off World (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 319	$0.45	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 311	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 309	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Minimal Wear)weapon · milspec	1 in 441	$0.40	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec Grade	1 in 220	$0.38	0.0%	1	0.3	—
AUG \| Triqua (Minimal Wear)weapon · Rare	1 in 649	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 360	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · Rare	1 in 181	$0.37	0.0%	0	0.4	—
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested)weapon · blue	1 in 267	$0.35	0.0%	0	0.3	—
AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 935	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 331	$0.34	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Off World (Field-Tested)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 362	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Off World (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 1,282	$0.33	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 559	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 538	$0.32	0.0%	1	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)weapon · milspec	1 in 559	$0.32	0.0%	1	0.1	—
SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Minimal Wear)weapon · mil spec	1 in 1,205	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Field-Tested)weapon · mil spec	1 in 352	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.2	—
Glock-18 \| Off World (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 357	$0.32	0.0%	0	0.2	—
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 613	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Battle-Scarred)StatTrak · weapon	1 in 617	$0.31	0.0%	0	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Minimal Wear)weapon · blue	1 in 645	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
MAC-10 \| Oceanic (Battle-Scarred)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,613	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.0	—
Tec-9 \| Cracked Opal (Well-Worn)weapon · 1	1 in 613	$0.29	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ SCAR-20 \| Jungle Slipstream (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec	1 in 1,887	$0.28	0.0%	0	0.0	—
StatTrak™ Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 565	$0.27	0.0%	0	0.1	—
StatTrak™ AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,266	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.1	—
G3SG1 \| Hunter (Well-Worn)weapon · blue	1 in 465	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.2	—
StatTrak™ G3SG1 \| Hunter (Field-Tested)StatTrak · weapon · milspec	1 in 1,351	$0.25	0.0%	0	0.1	—
AUG \| Triqua (Well-Worn)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 1,333	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—
Sawed-Off \| Morris (Well-Worn)weapon · milspec	1 in 595	$0.23	0.0%	0	0.1	—

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/spectrum2, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

UMP-45 | Exposure (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedkucha5730$4.79$1.230.26x14h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Minimal Wear)StatTrak · weapon · restrictedYakoyu Kugura$4.79$2.030.42x16h

StatTrak™ MP9 | Goo (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · MythicalNakyrajje$4.79$3.800.79x20h

CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Minimal Wear)weapon · restrictedNakyrajje$4.79$1.550.32x20h

StatTrak™ Tec-9 | Cracked Opal (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · Mil Spec GradeTewiq$4.79$0.370.08x1d

SG 553 | Phantom (Minimal Wear)weapon · MythicalДаня вареник$4.79$1.340.28x2d

StatTrak™ G3SG1 | Hunter (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · blueДаня вареник$4.79$2.790.58x2d

StatTrak™ CZ75-Auto | Tacticat (Well-Worn)StatTrak · weapon · #8847ffДаня вареник$4.79$1.340.28x2d

SG 553 | Phantom (Factory New)weapon · violetДаня вареник$4.79$2.130.44x2d

StatTrak™ AUG | Triqua (Factory New)StatTrak · weapon · milspecДаня вареник$4.79$2.450.51x2d

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	129
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	129
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$4.79	92.01%	129
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$4.79	92.02%	129
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$4.79	92.08%	129
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	129
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	129
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$4.79	92.06%	129
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$4.79	92.03%	129
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$4.79	91.99%	129
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	129
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$4.79	92.05%	129
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$4.79	92.09%	129
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$4.79	92.02%	129
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$4.79	92.01%	129
4 Nov, 07:06 UTC	$4.79	92.00%	129

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listed1 0.2%3 0.7%covert 0.4%covert knife 0.0%Immortal 0.1%classified 9.4%Legendary 1.4%Rare 6.3%pink 1.8%Classified 1.6%restricted 21.6%mil spec 6.2%Mythical 18.9%Restricted 4.9%Mil Spec Grade 6.3%milspec 9.2%violet 5.8%blue 2.4%#8847ff 1.9%#4b69ff 0.8%other 0.2%Mil Spec 0.1%best hit —