Spy Tech And Arabesque

A case on GGDROP (limited), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.

Price

$7.50

Advertised RTP

92.00%

EV $6.90 from 33 items

Observed RTP, 30d

90.50%

2,312 openings, odds method

Variance

2.4×

of price², per opening

Tail share

13.4%

of openings carry half the EV

Below price

67.6%

of openings return less than the price

Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker

observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample

24 hours

94.16%±13.91498 openings

7 days

90.06%±7.351,802 openings

30 days

90.50%±6.512,312 openings

since tracking started

90.50%±6.512,312 openings

79.5%94.0%108.5%

Windowsthe test per window

Window	Openings	Observed	Dev.	Method
24h	498	94.16%±13.9	+0.3σ	odds
7d	1,802	90.06%±7.35	−0.5σ	odds
30d	2,312	90.50%±6.51	−0.5σ	odds
All	2,312	90.50%±6.51	−0.5σ	odds

Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).

Items, odds and values33 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 2,323 openings, 30 days

Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.

Item	Odds	Value	EV share	Observed	Expected	Hot / cold
Glock-18 \| Ghost Protocol (Battle-Scarred)weapon · covert	1 in 6,667	$153	0.3%	1	0.3	—
AK-47 \| AUTOEXEC (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 446	$83.86	2.7%	4	5.2	0.77×
AWP \| Sovereign Flame (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 162	$78.42	7.0%	16	14.4	1.11×
AK-47 \| Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · red	1 in 105	$77.53	10.7%	21	22.2	0.95×
USP-S \| Spiral Glitch (Field-Tested)weapon · pink	1 in 64	$25.35	5.8%	23	36.5	0.63×
M4A4 \| Falak (Field-Tested)weapon · #d32ce6	1 in 60	$24.95	6.0%	27	38.4	0.70×
M4A1-S \| Fatal Glitch (Well-Worn)weapon · classified	1 in 36	$21.22	8.6%	60	65.0	0.92×
P250 \| Lotus Imprint (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 34	$15.61	6.6%	84	67.9	1.24×
Nova \| Smart Gun (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 39	$10.94	4.1%	77	60.2	1.28×
CZ75-Auto \| Hydraulics (Factory New)weapon · restricted	1 in 24	$10.40	6.4%	97	98.8	0.98×
AUG \| Lapis Lazuli (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 23	$9.88	6.1%	121	99.5	1.22×
AWP \| Black Box (Minimal Wear)weapon · restricted	1 in 30	$9.18	4.4%	108	76.9	1.41×
Glock-18 \| Ifrit Lattice (Minimal Wear)weapon · violet	1 in 29	$9.16	4.5%	89	79.2	1.12×
M4A4 \| Dark Operative (Factory New)weapon · blue	1 in 26	$8.27	4.5%	86	88.1	0.98×
Tec-9 \| Sultan (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 19	$6.55	4.9%	122	121.0	1.01×
MAC-10 \| Arabesque Mosaic (Factory New)weapon · #4b69ff	1 in 18	$3.53	2.9%	149	132.7	1.12×
MP9 \| Spy Prototype (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 12	$2.64	3.2%	175	193.7	0.90×
FAMAS \| Snake Song (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$2.59	3.4%	197	207.9	0.95×
AUG \| Signal Scanner (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 11	$2.07	2.7%	191	212.0	0.90×
Sawed-Off \| Lunar Wyrm (Factory New)weapon · milspec	1 in 21	$1.94	1.4%	72	113.3	0.64×
R8 Revolver \| Monarch (Factory New)weapon · Rare	1 in 30	$1.90	0.9%	100	76.5	1.31×
MAC-10 \| Video Cam (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 25	$1.39	0.8%	60	93.4	0.64×
FAMAS \| Corp Defense (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 34	$0.93	0.4%	76	69.0	1.10×
Five-SeveN \| Desert Seal (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 34	$0.78	0.3%	75	69.1	1.09×
MP7 \| Base-2 (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 28	$0.73	0.4%	65	82.4	0.79×
Tec-9 \| Perimeter (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 39	$0.71	0.3%	77	60.3	1.28×
SCAR-20 \| Arctic Camo Panels (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 71	$0.62	0.1%	36	32.5	1.11×
XM1014 \| Black Site (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 204	$0.59	0.0%	22	11.4	1.94×
MP9 \| Dune Asp (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 134	$0.57	0.1%	19	17.4	1.09×
Nova \| Morning Sun (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 99	$0.51	0.1%	21	23.5	0.90×
PP-Bizon \| Traitor (Factory New)weapon · Uncommon	1 in 164	$0.51	0.0%	21	14.1	1.48×
Dual Berettas \| Mystic Conjunction (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 110	$0.49	0.1%	15	21.1	0.71×
SCAR-20 \| Sirocco Script (Factory New)weapon · industrial	1 in 122	$0.46	0.1%	16	19.1	0.84×

Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from ggdrop:api/case/spy-tech-and-arabesque, 11 Nov, 14:42 UTC.

Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value

No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.

Latest dropsnewest first

All →

FAMAS | Snake Song (Factory New)weapon · milspecKot3$7.50$2.610.35x10m

MP9 | Spy Prototype (Factory New)weapon · milspecKot3$7.50$2.620.35x10m

Sawed-Off | Lunar Wyrm (Factory New)weapon · milspecKot3$7.50$1.950.26x15m

FAMAS | Corp Defense (Factory New)weapon · industrialKot3$7.50$0.940.13x15m

FAMAS | Corp Defense (Factory New)weapon · industriallerberism$7.50$0.940.13x24m

XM1014 | Black Site (Factory New)weapon · industriallerberism$7.50$0.590.08x24m

Nova | Smart Gun (Factory New)weapon · restrictedlerberism$7.50$11.201.49x25m

AK-47 | Consequence of the Jinn (Battle-Scarred)weapon · redNylox$7.50$77.7110.36x27m

Tec-9 | Perimeter (Factory New)weapon · industrialNylox$7.50$0.710.09x27m

Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days

Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%

Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture

Captured	Price	Advertised	Items
11 Nov, 14:42 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
11 Nov, 08:38 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
11 Nov, 02:34 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
10 Nov, 20:30 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
10 Nov, 14:27 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
10 Nov, 08:23 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
10 Nov, 02:19 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
9 Nov, 20:15 UTC	$7.50	92.07%	33
9 Nov, 14:12 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
9 Nov, 08:08 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
9 Nov, 01:55 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
8 Nov, 23:36 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
8 Nov, 17:32 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
8 Nov, 11:28 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
8 Nov, 05:24 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
7 Nov, 23:21 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
7 Nov, 17:17 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
7 Nov, 11:13 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
7 Nov, 05:09 UTC	$7.50	92.08%	33
6 Nov, 23:05 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
6 Nov, 17:01 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
6 Nov, 10:58 UTC	$7.50	92.07%	33
6 Nov, 04:54 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
5 Nov, 22:50 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
5 Nov, 16:46 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
5 Nov, 10:42 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
5 Nov, 04:39 UTC	$7.50	92.00%	33
4 Nov, 22:35 UTC	$7.50	92.02%	33
4 Nov, 16:31 UTC	$7.50	92.05%	33
4 Nov, 14:14 UTC	$7.50	92.04%	33

Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.

listedcovert 0.0%red 1.8%pink 1.6%#d32ce6 1.7%classified 2.8%restricted 13.1%violet 7.7%blue 3.8%milspec 36.5%#4b69ff 5.7%Rare 3.3%industrial 18.5%Uncommon 3.6%best hit —