StatTrak
A case on GGDROP (bundles), first seen 3 Nov 2026. Every value is GGDROP's own item price.
Price
$4.59
Advertised RTP
92.00%
EV $4.22 from 56 items
Observed RTP, 30d
83.33%
1,003 openings, odds method
Variance
2.3×
of price², per opening
Tail share
16.8%
of openings carry half the EV
Below price
74.4%
of openings return less than the price
Advertised vs observedper window, 95% band and the advertised marker
observed, 95% bandadvertisedoutside bandsmall sample
Windowsthe test per window
Enough sample: 100 openings and 5 expected rare hits (odds method) or 1,000 openings (sample method).
Items, odds and values56 items · odds sum to 1 · observed counts over 1,003 openings, 30 days
Share of the expected value, most valuable first; colour is the item's rarity.
Values are GGDROP's own item prices; EV share = odds × value ÷ EV. Hot / cold compares observed drops of each item with odds × openings; small expected counts are left blank. Odds read from
ggdrop:api/case/stattrak-case, 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC.Biggest dropsfrom this case, by value
No drops yetNo drop from this case seen yet.
Latest dropsnewest first
Observed RTP over timedaily, 30 days
Observed RTP, dailyAdvertised 92.00%
Catalog changesprice, advertised RTP and contents, per capture
| Captured | Price | Advertised | Items |
|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Nov, 08:38 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 11 Nov, 02:34 UTC | $4.59 | 92.06% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 20:30 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 14:27 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 08:23 UTC | $4.59 | 92.09% | 56 |
| 10 Nov, 02:19 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 20:15 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 14:12 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 08:08 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 9 Nov, 01:55 UTC | $4.59 | 92.03% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 23:36 UTC | $4.59 | 92.01% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 17:32 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 11:28 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 8 Nov, 05:24 UTC | $4.59 | 92.09% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 23:21 UTC | $4.59 | 92.04% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 17:17 UTC | $4.59 | 92.09% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 11:13 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 7 Nov, 05:09 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 23:05 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 17:01 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 10:58 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 6 Nov, 04:54 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 22:50 UTC | $4.59 | 92.01% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 16:46 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 10:42 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 5 Nov, 04:39 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 22:35 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 16:31 UTC | $4.59 | 92.00% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 14:14 UTC | $4.59 | 92.08% | 56 |
| 4 Nov, 07:06 UTC | $4.59 | 92.09% | 56 |
Each opening is tested against the capture in force when it happened; a price or odds change starts a new one.
listed#eb4b4b 0.0%covert 0.1%Covert 0.0%classified 10.5%Classified 2.2%milspec 0.3%Mil Spec Grade 11.7%pink 4.8%Legendary 0.8%restricted 17.9%Restricted 13.2%mil spec 6.8%Mythical 10.3%#8847ff 9.6%Rare 3.0%#4b69ff 3.6%violet 2.8%#F2F8FF 2.4%best hit —